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Data, Stats Thread June 11

986 replies

PatriciaHolm · 11/06/2021 15:05

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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sirfredfredgeorge · 13/06/2021 17:21

And the older people who are more likely to die are also more likely to have been double vaccinated

Absolutely, currently I'm sure the biggest single predictor of mortality in the UK is vaccination status, and the more vaccine doses you've had, the more likely you are to die.

But that's just the nature of the roll out.

strangeshapedpotato · 13/06/2021 17:22

[quote MRex]**@strangeshapedpotato* - it's great to have a good debate and I see merit in what you say. On this particular very long-running thread though, many efforts have been made to avoid argument so by mutual consent posters don't target words like numpty and stupidity at other posters on the thread. Fine to use them elsewhere as is normal, but it would be better here* to say "I disagree because", please.[/quote]
Apologies

MRex · 13/06/2021 17:30

Thanks Smile

strangeshapedpotato · 13/06/2021 17:33

@MRex

Risk of death should be 95% in that double jabbed group and they make up only 29% of deaths instead. If 5% of deaths has become 61% then the risk of death has reduced dramatically.

At a certain point, the majority of deaths will be vaccinated because the majority of people will be vaccinated and:

  1. someone has to be in the 5% who don't develop antibodies
  2. someone has to be very frail or immune suppressed where any bug will carry them off but they've been exposed to covid so that's the one
  3. someone has to die of other causes within 28 days of a positive test.
Hmm - your processing of these numbers is wrong.

The risk of death 95% - I'm guessing you mean risk of NOT dying! But even that's wrong. The 95% refers to the % of people who WOULD die, who don't because of vaccines. Not that 5% of infected people die!

e.g. if 2% of a group would normally die with covid, after full vaccination the death rate falls from 20 in 1000, to 1 in 1000.

The 29% is a completely different comparison - it's the number of vaccinated people among the group who died. If all other things were equal this would be TERRIBLE news for vaccines as it would mean that instead of reducing the number of deaths by 95%, it's reduced it by a far less figure.

e.g. if 1000 people and half vaccinated, half not, then you'd expect the ratio of deaths to be 20: 1- the vaccinated deaths would make up 4.76% of the dead.

BUT you have to factor in the fact that the most vulnerable people have been vaccinated first. The unvaccinated are mostly among the less at risk anyway, which is why the proportion of vaccinated deaths is higher.

You can't really draw conclusions from these death numbers without knowing the number infected in each group, which we don't.

Bordois · 13/06/2021 17:47

@TruelyonelastSchlep

People much more better at maths etc than me have looked at the hospitalisation, deaths and vaccinations figures

They worked out that from the higher risk groups. We would have had 570 people die not 12 if they were not fully vaccinated. That works out at around 95% protection apparently

Probably not explained that correctly but either way 12 is a lot less than 570. So deaths after hospitalisation in the priority groups is in fact low. Something like that anyway🤷‍♀️

I saw a thread that went into the maths. Mostly way beyond me - it was the numerical version of a magic eye picture. I had flashes where it made perfect sense but then a glanced away and it went all fuzzy again.

Something about conditional probability and the fact that almost everyone in the groups more likely to be hospitalised is double vaccinated anyway.

TruelyonelastSchlep · 13/06/2021 17:55

Bordois you are not the only one 😂

I have seen other people go into the maths too. Whilst I get their drift. The actual maths is lost on me at the moment. My head can't calculate this stuff like I was doing last year. To many painkillers rattling around in me🤪

The people that I have seen commenting about this I trust to be fairly neutral in their tweets. So hopefully all is tickety boo. Have to admit now my head isn't able to work this stuff out itself I am being more cautious in speaking. Like to be factual after all.

JanFebAnyMonth · 13/06/2021 17:56

@strangeshapedpotato I think when @MRex gave that 95% risk of death in the oldest age /CEV group she was referring to the fact that, in normal times, we’d expect 95% of deaths to come from that group.

MRex · 13/06/2021 18:41

[quote JanFebAnyMonth]**@strangeshapedpotato* I think when @MRex* gave that 95% risk of death in the oldest age /CEV group she was referring to the fact that, in normal times, we’d expect 95% of deaths to come from that group.[/quote]
Yes, sorry for any confusion. I'm using James Ward's numbers that groups 1-9 were 99% of deaths pre-vaccination AND the majority of the double jabbed population, BUT a percentage weren't vaccinated so 95% of deaths should be expected to be group 1-9 yet double jabbed (actually no idea what maths he did to confirm that but it looks about right).

JanFebAnyMonth · 13/06/2021 18:42

(I could be completely wrong and I haven’t checked that 95% of deaths do actually come from that group normally!)

CornishYarg · 13/06/2021 18:44

@MRex

Risk of death should be 95% in that double jabbed group and they make up only 29% of deaths instead. If 5% of deaths has become 61% then the risk of death has reduced dramatically.

At a certain point, the majority of deaths will be vaccinated because the majority of people will be vaccinated and:

  1. someone has to be in the 5% who don't develop antibodies
  2. someone has to be very frail or immune suppressed where any bug will carry them off but they've been exposed to covid so that's the one
  3. someone has to die of other causes within 28 days of a positive test.
@MRex Should the 61% mentioned above be 71% i.e. 100% - 29%? I'm trying to follow the maths with my rusty probability knowledge and struggling!
MRex · 13/06/2021 18:47

Sorry @CornishYarg, quite correct, yes it should. Blush

CornishYarg · 13/06/2021 18:49

@MRex

Sorry *@CornishYarg*, quite correct, yes it should. Blush
Smile Thank you!
MRex · 13/06/2021 18:54

I'm messing up all over the place! It was @BristOliver, but quoted by James... also usually reliable with figures.
mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1403984975788228611

strangeshapedpotato · 13/06/2021 19:18

[quote MRex]I'm messing up all over the place! It was @BristOliver, but quoted by James... also usually reliable with figures.
mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1403984975788228611[/quote]
I see your point, but I think it's trying to apply mathematical precision to numbers that don't warrant it tbh.

We really need to know:

  1. % of those infected who were double vaccinated
  2. breakdown by age group among the infected
  3. breakdown by age group AND vaccination among the dead

For example, the delta variant originated in communities known to have a lower vaccination take up, so using national figures doesn't work.

And it's been spreading among the younger groups who will therefore make up a proportionally higher % of the infected.

The only thing I think anyone can say is that deaths among the vaccinated doesn't mean the vaccines don't work - it means what we know (or should have known) anyway - that vaccines aren't 100% effective.

In the twitter feed - Deepti nails it:
"Unfortunately 42 deaths from the delta variant, of which 30% (12) are among fully vaccinated & 17% among partly vaccinated (21 days after 1 dose). Note: this doesn't tell us about level of vaccine efficacy, except it's less than 100%. Take precautions even if fully vaccinated "

My added emphasis

MRex · 13/06/2021 19:20

I agree, except that I don't think there have been enough deaths that a breakdown by age will be meaningful yet. (And long may that continue.)

strangeshapedpotato · 13/06/2021 19:28

Indeed

Sobering reading the chain from Deepti here: mobile.twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403293596556607488/photo/1

I hadn't heard about the Delta strain starting to incorporate the K417N mutation (SA).

My money is now on a full lockdown being reimposed by the end of September. There goes my dancing hopes for the rest of this year :(

everythingthelighttouches · 13/06/2021 19:57

I hadn't heard about the Delta strain starting to incorporate the K417N mutation (SA)

Yes you have, this is the so-called Nepal variant.

NannyAndJohn · 13/06/2021 20:33

If the Nepal Variant manages to take hold then it's curtains.

36 cases of it here already.

TruelyonelastSchlep · 13/06/2021 20:38

@NannyAndJohn

If the Nepal Variant manages to take hold then it's curtains.

36 cases of it here already.

Dramatic 😂

Why on earth do you think it is curtains or are you just trying to scare people for kicks?

MRex · 13/06/2021 20:40

@NannyAndJohn

If the Nepal Variant manages to take hold then it's curtains.

36 cases of it here already.

It isn't "curtains" if the SA variant takes hold, nor if the Nepal variant takes hold, it is simply a larger wave with a more urgent need for the third booster.
TruelyonelastSchlep · 13/06/2021 20:45

The vaccines have all been shown to work against the SA variant. Reduction in there effectiveness against infection but still at a level to make a DRAMATIC difference

It is a bugger if a combination of these two has a wave but not enough to muck things up for long. Especially because enough people would be vaccinated by then. Interestingly enough the mutation from the SA variant is thought to be the worst this virus is likely to do and that is brilliant. The vaccines have nailed that mutation.

TruelyonelastSchlep · 13/06/2021 20:46

Probably only a booster still for the very elderly and vulnerable too. Which they are planning to do anyway by the sounds of it.

NannyAndJohn · 13/06/2021 20:51

@TruelyonelastSchlep "Curtains" because we'll be spending the rest of the year in lockdown (because you know Johnson will act too late) and all of our Summer/Autumn/Christmas plans will be kaput.

Bordois · 13/06/2021 20:52

Well, according to you we are going to hit 100k cases a day by next Monday too, so... 🤷‍♀️

ThereIsAGreenHillFarAway · 13/06/2021 20:59

@NannyAndJohn

If the Nepal Variant manages to take hold then it's curtains.

36 cases of it here already.

Only if you're Andrew Lloyd Webber.
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