Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

There was also the Lancet article a couple of weeks ago that showed that protection from vaccination reduced faster over time in older populations. The 90+ bracket mainly had their vaccines under the original dosing regime so many were double dosed by mid January, 6 months ago now.

@TheDinosaurTrain

There was also the Lancet article a couple of weeks ago that showed that protection from vaccination reduced faster over time in older populations. The 90+ bracket mainly had their vaccines under the original dosing regime so many were double dosed by mid January, 6 months ago now.

Yes, this is what the Telegraph article suggests is happening.

Although current numbers do not suggest there is a problem...

The article mentions James Ward's analysis but it does so very briefly. Here is the actual twitter thread and it is certainly worth reading:

twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1403493925466296333

...Applying those adjustments, I get new estimates as follows:
- VE vs being a case: ~35% after 1 dose and ~80% after 2 doses
- VE vs. hospitalisation and death: ~80% after 1 dose and >95% after 2 doses.

95%+ protection from hospitalisation and deaths is a very good result.

@herecomesthsun

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-third-wave-covid-19-die-may-already-have-cast/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

I thought this article was very good. I have tried to copy this figure.

The fully vaccinated are still at risk from Covid-19

Share (%) of unvaccinated vs partial and fully vaccinated in a) population, b) infections, c) admissions and d) deaths among delta confirmed cases

dark blue = fully vaccinated

pale blue = partly vaccinated

red = unvaccinated

so full vaccination appears to be very good at preventing infection, less good at preventing hospitalisation and a bit less good again at preventing death.

is this because the effect of vaccination is now wearing off for the most vulnerable as the author of the article suggests?

I think these pie charts are a bit misleading because bad you get to hospitalisations and deaths you are dealing with very small numbers. I suspect that many of the deaths after 2 vaccines are people who have other life threatening/limiting illnesses, eg they have terminal cancer but also die within 28 days of getting Covid

Please don’t think all children are being asymptonaticwlly tested. Primary and nursery never were, and figures after Easter showed that only about a quarter of secondary children’s tests were still being reported. (OK, more than that will be testing but it’s unlikely to be a wildly higher proportion.)

Testing in secondary age children has gone down dramatically (or as Jan says they are no longer being reported.

I think lack of reporting is probably a good number of the missing tests.

For me, it's a case of waking the children up earlier twice a week. Ds normally gets up and does it, dd gets up last minute anyway. Normally ds does it in time to report both to school and government before we leave, but not always.
With dd we're normally popping it in the car so we can check before they go in. I've had a number of times where I've thrown it away from the car without thinking, or just forgotten to register it.

I've got 2 older teens who do the test with no fuss and get it done, but still there's days where one or more of the registers (either for school or gov) get forgotten. I don't have data on my phone, so I can't register it in the car as she goes in. I suspect if you have reluctant or younger secondary school age who needs help, then doing the test is far more important than registering it.

Also (purely anecdotal) the number of tests tends to increase when there are cases around. I know our secondary was dropping percentage of tests over last half term-they hadn't had a positive since December. They've had 2 positives this week, and I believe the Thursday test was well up.

The opposite happened in another local school. They had some positives back in March and were getting a really good response for doing the tests. Then it dropped again as they didn't get more positives. They then got another positive at the start of May, again went up for a couple of weeks, but now has really dropped again.

This could mean that the positivity rate is higher than it should be.

I don't see why the gov.uk reporting system couldn't have been the only one. They ask what school, so it would be fairly simple to have a system where it collates results and emails them to the school each week. I presume they contact them immediately if there's a positive anyway.
Monday: 344 tests, 0 positive, 340 negative 4 unclear
Thursday: 562 tests, 1 positive, 559 negative, 2 unclear

Is what they need, plus details of the positive tests.

Our school form is only for filling out if negative-you contact the school by phone for positive, and redo for unclear.

Don't wish to patronise but you could do it in the evening!

Also (purely anecdotal) the number of tests tends to increase when there are cases around. I know our secondary was dropping percentage of tests over last half term-they hadn't had a positive since December. They've had 2 positives this week, and I believe the Thursday test was well up.

If this was the case we should be seeing an up tick in the graph as cases have been rising in the last few weeks, but that isn't there.

This could mean that the positivity rate is higher than it should be.

The positivity rate would be lower than it should be if people are doing the asymptomatic testing, but won't be higher than it should be. If people test positivity then they are positive.

@Piggywaspushed

Don't wish to patronise but you could do it in the evening!

We do when we forget in the morning, but I'm out at work evenings so that means I'm even more likely to forget when I get back!

Looking at the case stats for the overall North West region and comments on twitter hoping very much that it might be peaking about now. If so we might be expecting other regions to do similar in a few weeks time.

Interestingly my particular corner of GM has significantly lower case rates than others and I wonder if that could be linked to the fact that locally our vaccination rates are very high. Everyone is white round here and the population is a comparatively old one so more likely to have had it generally and we have a major hospital that is a significant local employer - that means I know loads of hospital staff that were double dosed with Pfizer ages ago.

Agree that situation in Blackburn now looks worrying. Somewhat better in Bolton which is now a few weeks after a huge vaccination drive which is encouraging news.

@lonelyplanet

Testing in secondary age children has gone down dramatically (or as Jan says they are no longer being reported.

I can totally believe that many are still doing the tests but not logging the negative ones. Have to admit that I stopped logging mine ages ago but am still dutifully doing them.

Just a lurker popping on to share this short twitter thread re the number of deaths of fully vaccinated people that I found hugely reassuring and certainly makes sense to me.

twitter.com/bristoliver/status/1403984975788228611?s=21

Tbh I doubt that us on here - still testing but maybe not reporting, or still reporting - are very representative of the nation’s parents....

(You can also report the next day, as long as it’s within 24 hours)

Just checking in.

I do it the night before ie Sunday afternoon/ evening. The days of the week aren't an actual rule! Just much less manic.

Not school age, but we had a conversation about registering LFTs in my local adult ed class last week and only myself and another support staff were registering our results. Even the tutor said they weren't (but would if +ve).

Registering negative tests is a PITA so I can understand why not everyone does.

See, I keep reading this and I hate technology and bureaucracy but it literally takes me 30 seconds?

We have been told to register all our secondary school tests by a link. Then the school reports any positive to PHE. I only now register officially the primary school tests we do.

I am at full capacity just keeping going due to having two disabilities and kids with disabilities and fatigue and hot weather recently. Anything extra, especially stuff that is difficult (computers and forms) has to be compensated with something less, on a day where the bare minimum of getting kids fed, to school and looked after is as much as I can manage then testing won't be done. Outsourced it to their dad but he is at full capacity too...we test randomly and don't report if negative. This is despite supporting the principle of testing.

On the plus side, due to disabilities we are not socialising much. (Apart from school but not going to spread far out of school)

What also puzzles me is that the vaccines seem to decrease hospitalisation proportionately more than death in the latest figures,.

Previously there was a lot of emphasis on how the worse the potential outcome, the more effective the vaccines were.

It may of course relate to either the gap between doses or to wearing off of the beneficial effect after several months. It would be interesting to have some more clarity on differential diagnosis also, though that is often much more complicated and multifactorial than many people assume.

Apart from that ^ waffle about tests. Thanks for the thread, it's really useful.

8 mins at least (is everything works properly) for me plus two DC. Would be quicker if they could have their own accounts but I couldn’t work out how to do that.

Also my old phone doesn’t cope with the website so I have to use a clunky tablet which keeps opening up random Amazon windows as I’m trying to do it.....

So what do we estimate: twice as many people testing as are reporting? x 3? More? It would actually be useful if ONS tried to survey this, wouldn’t it. Obviously if they just asked their normal households there’d be a definite bias from those who are rule followers etc.

I think you would have to compare deaths by vaccinated verses non vaccinated and partially vaccinated by age group to get a clear picture.