Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Quick delurk to say how much I appreciate these threads. I think they're even more valuable because not everyone on them agrees with each other, being able to see and balance lots of different viewpoints is IMO preferable to just seeing totally positive/negative news. Thank you to all the regular contributers.

@Jenasaurus Here: twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1403276590788890624.

More detailed info starts on page 71 of this PHE report: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993198/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing.pdf

Just watching bbc breakfast where a gp was saying by delaying easing of restrictions by a month it makes all the difference because of more double vaccinated people. I’m confused, because the main driver of the delta variant seems to be school aged children, so double vaccinated adults wouldn’t have a massive effect on spread around children as the level wouldn’t be high enough for herd immunity? Will it not just get to a crisis situ where so many bubbles pop that children’s education is affected? The govt suppressing schools data is troubling and measures in school are pretty limited. Focus atm seems to be on vaccinating adults not looking at measures to keep schools open. I get how more vaccines will help, but there’s also a bit of an elephant in the room with children’s transmission, or do they not mind so long as lots aren’t in hospital, despite the fact we know allowing covid to spread creates more variants.

Hi all, I know I'm in a minority here, being a lockdown sceptic, but I'd really like someone that knows data etc well to have a look at this article from today's Lockdown Sceptics website please

I'm dyscalculic and struggle with any maths, is it plausible?

lockdownsceptics.org/2021/06/12/phe-briefing-claims-indian-variant-is-64-more-infectious-but-dig-down-and-the-finding-falls-apart/

I think (or feel like) it is the last bit reastie but also possibly a stumbling towards the holidays with fingers crossed which isn't ideal! I guess they may be planning to get rid of isolating contacts soon but that certainly wouldn't have worked at my school this week as we wouldn't have identified new cases that way. Lots of contacts of an original case tested positive after deciding to take a PCR and I am not convinced they would have done that (ie gone for a test) if they had been left in school.

They have never really had a coherent and transparent strategy on children.

Thanks for the last graph boys.

Surge testing stopped in Bedford now so that may well drop back, I guess. Genuine concerns about Central beds round here now, which was also hit by Kent in terms of schools. A heavily vaccinated population , however.

Thank you for the graphs boys.

An interesting thread on the impact on schools:

mobile.twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1403305038089490438

[quote ILookAtTheFloor]Hi all, I know I'm in a minority here, being a lockdown sceptic, but I'd really like someone that knows data etc well to have a look at this article from today's Lockdown Sceptics website please

I'm dyscalculic and struggle with any maths, is it plausible?

lockdownsceptics.org/2021/06/12/phe-briefing-claims-indian-variant-is-64-more-infectious-but-dig-down-and-the-finding-falls-apart/[/quote]
There's bits in here that are correct but their overall conclusion that the data is imperfect and so should be ignored seems pretty stupid to me. Real world data is always imperfect and it's not as if this is the only piece of evidence that delta is more transmittable.

On the specific point about household size, the transmission, the delays Delta variant may have started out in Indian households which are larger than average but it's pretty widespread now so any differences in household size are likely be be pretty minimal

but it's pretty widespread now so any differences in household size are likely be be pretty minimal

Do not agree with this, it's prevalent in under 25's and their households, the average household size of an under 25 is considerably higher than others. So it's not widespread, it's widespread within particular age groups.

Oh and of course another huge complication with secondary attack rate is that we only started testing close contacts in recent weeks, we never did it before...

ILookAtTheFloor

Yes, it is one of those rare times when the article on Toby Young's website is generally factually correct . We discussed this on the old thread.

• The 64% transmission advantage in the PHE report has been calculated for households only based on very early data.
• The report authors tried to normalise for environmental factors (e.g. level of income, household size, etc) but such analysis is never perfect.
• I agree the best news in the report is that the Delta secondary attack rate for close contacts dropped from 13%+ to 11%+. The back of the envelope calculation gives the transmission advantage of 40%. It is still high but also much better news than 60%.

Damn you

^^ totally agree!!

And then there is the conclusion which is not necessarily supported by the underlying information in the PHE report:

The main lesson is that it’s time to stop panicking about every new “highly transmissible” variant and recognise that transmissibility is more a function of external factors like epidemic phase and season than an innate property of the variant.

We know that transmissibility is indeed influenced by environmental factors but the innate property of the virus still plays a very significant (and potentially number one) role in the pandemic development.

Thanks for the graphs @boys3.

Do we have any idea what matrix it is that triggers the extra measures ( eg surge testing etc)?

Looking at London say I’m wondering why Kingston had surge but not say Lambeth or Wandsworth ( unless they have and I’ve missed it). I’m guessing it must be a combination of absolute numbers plus increase? Wondering if they also take into account vaccination rate.

I guess my thinking is wouldn’t it make sense to get in early in places that have clear and fast exponential growth plus very low vaccine uptake ( say Lambeth/Wandsworth in London) before cases get very high? Or would this mean it would have to be so widespread it’s a resource issue? Ps just using London as an example I know rates are much higher elsewhere and would also apply same reasoning to them!

Didn’t Wandsworth have surge testing a while ago, but maybe am thinking of when it was for SA variant, not sure?

Is there any evidence that the alpha strain isn't also circulating largely in the under 25? I've not read anything to suggest otherwise and if Delta is a little bit more vaccine resistant you'd logically expect it to be more likely to be infecting the older age groups (so much as they're being infected at all) not the alpha strain.

It was the SA variant yes ( in the days before Delta!)

Is there any evidence that the alpha strain isn't also circulating largely in the under 25?

The alpha strain was already essentially dead in the UK community circulating slowly due to restrictions until the re-seeding of cases of delta, and these outbreaks then spread again due to the cases.

@Piggywaspushed maybe it’s the plan to routinely pcr test children instead of self isolating?

PCR , I doubt. Possibly LFT.

.

My son goes to a school in Lacashire, we've had an email today asking for permission for him and the rest of our family to be pcr tested. They want to do the whole school and their families if possible.

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-third-wave-covid-19-die-may-already-have-cast/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

I thought this article was very good. I have tried to copy this figure.

The fully vaccinated are still at risk from Covid-19

Share (%) of unvaccinated vs partial and fully vaccinated in a) population, b) infections, c) admissions and d) deaths among delta confirmed cases

dark blue = fully vaccinated

pale blue = partly vaccinated

red = unvaccinated

so full vaccination appears to be very good at preventing infection, less good at preventing hospitalisation and a bit less good again at preventing death.

is this because the effect of vaccination is now wearing off for the most vulnerable as the author of the article suggests?

Those pie charts are not the full story though. If people were evenly vaccinated across the population they would be, but as it stands the "Fully vaccinated" population are the oldest and most vulnerable section of the population, the "partially vaccinated" are 30-50 year olds (mostly), and the "unvaccinated" are mostly children or under-25.

Therefore it should be unsurprising that lots of younger people and school students (who are the only group able to freely mix in large numbers indoors with minimal distancing) make up most of the cases, especially as they are tested regularly even when asymptomatic.

Older and more vulnerable people, all things being equal, should make up over 90% of the hospitalisations and 99% of the deaths, that they are not is the result of vaccination.

Also, there is not yet full data separating those in hospital because of Covid from those testing positive while in for something else. Older, more vulnerable people (ie the fully vaccinated) are far more likely to be in hospital for something, so their asymptomatic or mild cases are more likely to be recorded as Covid hospitalisation than the general populace.