Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Case numbers matter.

I don't disagree although I have always found her to be very cautious, overly cautious at times.

The issue we have now is that the younger population don't want to be at home.

And we really need to consider the measures that would be required to get case numbers down and the impact that would have on their lives.

Let's just hope we manage to get enough people vaccinated I'm the next few weeks to really make a difference re case numbers.

Re vaccinating over 12s - I don't know enough. I don't have an over 12 yet so try and stay away from having a strong opinion.

What should be noted though is that the vaccination rate is higher here than it is in the EU / US for example. They NEED to vaccinate children if they want to get to herd immunity. It MAY be that we can get there without it.

However, that said, I would expect we will start vaccinating over 12s in the next few weeks once we have got nearly all the over 18s done.

@Wakeupin2022
That would require enough supply of P.
I'm not sure it is the case.

Even if we had had enough Pfizer, I do not think we would have gone ahead with immediately vaccinating 12-15 year olds. WHO revised its recommendations a few days ago based on the latest myocarditis data:

www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/covid-19-vaccines/advice

WHO's Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) has concluded that the Pfizer/BionTech vaccine is suitable for use by people aged 12 years and above. Children aged between 12 and 15 who are at high risk may be offered this vaccine alongside other priority groups for vaccination. Vaccine trials for children are ongoing and WHO will update its recommendations when the evidence or epidemiological situation warrants a change in policy.

They are basically recommending “wait and see” approach for children outside of high risk groups. I do not see JCVI going against WHO.

At the same time CDC in the US had a long heated meeting yesterday to review the data and they did not make any revisions to their recommendations (go ahead with vaccinating 12-15 year olds). They used out-of-date numbers though.

I personally think the decision warrants more detailed risk/benefit analysis that would compare potential side effects with the true (not over exaggerated!) risk of long Covid. Unfortunately, there are too many emotions involved and many people stop thinking rationally when it comes to children.

I hope the debate will become less controversial once we have got an approval for Novavax (a more traditional vaccine). My understanding is they are also looking to offer vaccines for children.

@wintertravel1980
To facilitate grown up debate a few questions

1. what % of vaccined kids got any serious side effects?
2. if we don't know how many kids had covid (eg. being asymptomatic and never got tested), how do we know the realistic % of LC?

1 - the data is incomplete. I have attached the slide used by CDC but many opponents argued that the number of reported side effects is understated.

2 - I would use ONS type study and focus on young adults who tested positive as part of random sampling. ONS tried to do this but at some point they were counting all the people who still reported any lingering symptoms over 4-5 weeks (including mild coughs). The numbers were clearly overstated and didn’t appear credible. We should probably narrow down the parameters and capture “true” long Covid cases (when people still have to deal with serious health problems several months after their initial diagnosis).

I have a 12 year old and it is an incredibly difficult choice to make and one that I am not entirely comfortable on.

I also think Novavax may well be the way out for the younger people

IN terms of % Long Covid that is I think the caveat for these studies is that it is a % of participants - how that actually translates into a percentage overall is more difficult.

Those figures look dramatically higher for boys, any ideas why that should be?
I agree novovax will be great, it may have more confidence among vaccine hesitant and for child vaccines.

The trouble with that winter is that it foesnt bring in anyone who probably had covid before widespread testing, which is a LOT of people.

Sorry I've missed it, why is Novovax the answer, would it not have the same issues as AZ?

@whichjab no Novavax uses completely different technology to AZ. It doesn't use a vector, it uses recombinant nanoparticle.

[quote User72642]@whichjab no Novavax uses completely different technology to AZ. It doesn't use a vector, it uses recombinant nanoparticle.[/quote]
Thanks, I'm off on a Google with that new phrase!

Is Novavax trialing on teenagers ?

Oh that's clever.
There's an animated video on their website, lots of pretty floating protein structures.
www.novavax.com/our-unique-technology

This is quite a good explanation.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/novavax-covid-19-vaccine.html

@EasterIssland

Is Novavax trialing on teenagers ?

Trials started in the US in May and will start in India in July. I'm not sure if there are other trials.

don't get excited about Novavax. I'm on the trial and it's a bit of a shambles tbh. I think the stuff works but they can't get their manufacturing sorted. The company is 30 years old and has not yet brought a single vaccine to market.
We have a whole thread about it! Thousands of us in limbo and can't travel because it's not approved. It should have been in May but we really don't know when it will be. I do wonder what all the folk in the factory in Billingham where they're supposed to be making it are doing.
(sorry for digressing)
Not aware of a teenagers trial in the UK. Think they have enough on their plates trying (failing) to keep us lot happy.

That must be frustrating for you, how are they resolving vaccination status in your situation?

@Frazzled2207

don't get excited about Novavax. I'm on the trial and it's a bit of a shambles tbh. I think the stuff works but they can't get their manufacturing sorted. The company is 30 years old and has not yet brought a single vaccine to market. We have a whole thread about it! Thousands of us in limbo and can't travel because it's not approved. It should have been in May but we really don't know when it will be. I do wonder what all the folk in the factory in Billingham where they're supposed to be making it are doing. (sorry for digressing) Not aware of a teenagers trial in the UK. Think they have enough on their plates trying (failing) to keep us lot happy.

If they can't organise themselves in time for the biggest pay day they will ever have then I am more than a little concerned. How have they financed themselves for 30years?

It is really disappointing to hear about Novavax:(. I have had my hopes high.

I did hear that Novavax had problems getting the bags they needed. Although I thought there was enough for some manufacture in the UK.

I think they come from USA and of course the Americans seem to want to keep everything for themselves while making token gestures........

But I don't think Novavax was initially intended to be given for 1st doses in UK. Which may also explain the slow speed for approval.

It will come and it may be commercially its better to come into the market at a time when there is a requirement for boosters.

Doesn't help countries desperately struggling for vaccines though......

That looks like 0.006% of boys get myocarditis.
Without the math, just gut feeling, getting covid and then long covid is of a higher chance than getting this rare side effect.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]That looks like 0.006% of boys get myocarditis.
Without the math, just gut feeling, getting covid and then long covid is of a higher chance than getting this rare side effect.

@MRex

That must be frustrating for you, how are they resolving vaccination status in your situation?

well I wish I knew the answer to that. We all want to just go ahead and get an approved vaccine now but it's pretty difficult unless we want to just lie about having had novavax.

Most countries won't accept us. Well not us specifically but anyone not vaccinated with an APPROVED vaccine. Some are being pragmatic, Greece for example.

However, the app is in the process of being sorted for domestic purposes.

we were told that the G7 specifically discussed this and apparently they want to move towards treating people vaccinated as part of a trial, as vaccinated, regardless of whether or not it is approved. However there is zero set timescale for this. There is a chance however that it will be approved by the UK at least in July/August (Q3 is the latest we've been told).

@Whichjab not sure tbh.
We think they are mostly now concentrating on the hopeful success of their flu/covid combined vax. In the US anyway.

@EasterIssland
I was basing my gut feeling on the overall stat of 10-30% of ppl who caught covid go on to develop long covid.

But agree with any/everyone who says more data is needed for a valid conclusion and decision.