Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

[quote Wakeupin2022]Easter I think *Quartzz was talking about the French side of the Border.

But this article suggests that the 1% is probably out of date.

www.google.com/amp/s/english.elpais.com/society/2021-06-21/experts-calculate-that-coronavirus-delta-strain-will-be-predominant-in-spain-in-a-month.html%3foutputType=amp[/quote]
Thanks !
Something that has happened in the last week in that side of France is that they have been allowing in capbreton / Biarritzs and hossegor to vaccinate young Spanish people that have crossed the border, you’d only do that if you have too many spares so that might be one of the reasons why the cases are mounting up in las landas

This is the graph showing patients in mechanical ventilation beds in the NW, here. They have a bit of a head start on delta and their vaccination rate is not dissimilar to the national average, IIRC. It would be fair to say that if this plays out over the rest of the country I can see why they would be worried.

Helps if you attach the screenshot.

Looks like exponential growth to me.

I am not sure when you look at the source data there is a possibility it is slowing. Certainly the cases in the North West - whilst still rising are not quite on the sharp trajectory they were

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=North%20West

and looking at the figures

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=North%20West

It is similar to September.

It is I think still too early to say @NannyAndJohn one way or the other exactly which way this is going to go

I would say though its the North East that is showing more worrying signs of growth

Scotland had 2969 positive cases yesterday. That's higher than the peak at the start of January. Edinburgh had 504, about 200 higher than our previous highest day. 2/3 of cases amongst young men. Probably due to the football...

We know from the Zoe study that the delta variant now has very different symptoms at the beginning of the virus eg loss of taste is no longer a factor. Do we know whether the symptoms are now different towards the end of the virus? Is day 10 still the crucial turning point it was?

Sorry should say loss of taste is no longer a common symptom

@Perihelion

Scotland had 2969 positive cases yesterday. That's higher than the peak at the start of January. Edinburgh had 504, about 200 higher than our previous highest day. 2/3 of cases amongst young men. Probably due to the football...

I imagine that's played a part as so many would have been in homes / pubs together if you exclude the 30 k who travelled to London.

But I don't think it really explains why its so high. I did hear there was more testing than ever before, but even so why it is so bad in Scotland compared to England at the moment?

That's a shockingly bad amount of cases and translates to over 30k cases in England when we adjust for population.

@Perihelion Scotland has done surge testing recently . Still holds true that a positive case is a positive case but also that they will be picking up more than at other times

[quote Notmulan]@Perihelion Scotland has done surge testing recently . Still holds true that a positive case is a positive case but also that they will be picking up more than at other times[/quote]
I read the rate was 7% though? Need to confirm. But that's super high for surge testing.

www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

Worth a read from the BBC re Scotland.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57580118

Scotland is also behind in vaccination especially with the younger age group. I know I had mine earlier I'm England than a lot of friends/ family in Scotland.

Yes, the rollout does seem to be a little slower, but I would like to see the take up rate in Scotland compared to England. I suspect it will be higher in all age groups.

Yes I posted yesterday as I heard Stephen Reicher mentioned the high male rate in Scotland and linked it to the football. I’d be wary of linking any infection rate to one factor like that, but I guess it could be a partial explanation. I think the NHS bod, quoted in the BBC article saying that maybe more positives are being picked up precisely because those going to watch football indoors are LFTing beforehand (then confirming with PCR), is being a little optimistic!

Indoor hospitality opened in Scotland earlier, no half term holiday at the end of May and much lower infection rate throughout the pandemic, so less natural immunity, all add to the explosion of cases.

Research on how the delta variant works:

www.news-medical.net/news/20210623/Indian-SARS-CoV-2-variant-has-unique-infection-and-immune-escape-strategy-say-researchers.aspx?fbclid=IwAR3N-Zt9Zq1snXNwTj1O2UIdbvv0MWudXlsLTqtGYW9KG80Qa0iVCsS5Wj0

The science is way beyond my understanding but hopefully it will be useful for some on here.

@Wakeupin2022

Scotland is also behind in vaccination especially with the younger age group. I know I had mine earlier I'm England than a lot of friends/ family in Scotland.

Yes, the rollout does seem to be a little slower, but I would like to see the take up rate in Scotland compared to England. I suspect it will be higher in all age groups.

@Wakeupin2022 I'd like to be able to say there is nothing to stop you doing that.

Scotland figures based on 2019 based mid year population estimates - public.tableau.com/app/profile/phs.covid.19/viz/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

England figures based on NIMS live population estimates (used on dashboard as ONS 2019 based mid year estimates would give an uptake in some groups of greater than 100%)
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=nation&areaName=England

So what should be a simple comparison is in reality less straightforward than we probably both may have hoped

@JanFebAnyMonth

Yes I posted yesterday as I heard Stephen Reicher mentioned the high male rate in Scotland and linked it to the football. I’d be wary of linking any infection rate to one factor like that, but I guess it could be a partial explanation. I think the NHS bod, quoted in the BBC article saying that maybe more positives are being picked up precisely because those going to watch football indoors are LFTing beforehand (then confirming with PCR), is being a little optimistic!

I've seen videos of crowded planes, crowded trains, hugging groups outside and inside pubs; in each case with hordes shouting "Yes Sir I can boogie" at top shout. I actually find it quite remarkable that the majority of those who travelled seem to have returned home uninfected.

whilst I'm on my population estimates soapbox

These are the English Councils with the biggest percentage variance between the most recent ONS estimate (mid year 2019 based published in June 2020) and the latest NIMS figure (or at least that published in last Thursday's weekly NHS file).

We have, and I'll reference Cambridge as the first listed in the table as (extreme) example figures

Council

ONS population estimate; in the case of Cambridge 124,798

NIMMS population estimate ; Cambridge 182,739

Difference between the two figures in this example NIMS is 57,941 higher

% difference between the two figures in this example NIMS is 46% higher. NB this is at the very extreme end of the spectrum

ONS 2 Yr this cryptic column is the percentage difference between the ONS estimate published in June 2020 and that in June 2018 (given there is a roughly 2 year gap between ONS and NIMMs figures as well). In this example the population in Cambridge was estimated to have had a marginal decrease of minus 0.1%

D1 ONS ; first dose uptake using overall number in last Thursday's weekly file; so not the latest and of course not reflecting the demographic make up of each Council. For Cambridge that would be 61.8% ; placing it just past 200th against just past 300 Councils in England.

D1 NIMS ; first dose uptake using the NIMMS population which for Cambridge 42.2%; placing it 299th ; or one of the lowest in England.

The final two columns show the equivalent percentages for 2nd Dose

The table just shows those Councils with a NIMMS figure at least 17.5% higher.

Overall only one council are Gosport had a NIMMS population figure lower that the ONS figure

The scatter graph shows the full picture:

• note different scales for each axis
• NIMS growth over ONS x axis
• ONS 2020 growth over ONS 2018 y axis

not sure graph attached properly - trying again. or if it did load ok you are get the dubious benefit of seeing it twice

I wonder what percentage of that discrepancy is students/ migrant workers who have since left the UK.

I would change Dr's if I was moving within UK. Would I deregister if I was moving abroad - probably not!

I would change Dr's if I was moving within UK. Would I deregister if I was moving abroad - probably not!

I believe a large proportion of men particularly do not visit their GP between the ages of 18 and 40, I certainly never registered at university, or anywhere else until doing it purely 'cos registering at the same place as kid. So I would've still been notionally on my GP as a kid.

I believe universities push even more to register new students? Is there male/female estimates in the NIMS and ONS data, as I certainly would hypothesise that male numbers are considerably more out than female (due to pregnancy and contraception)

I believe universities push even more to register new students?
That depends on the university. When I went we weren't given the option, just told we'd been registered with the college doctor.
Dd was told that she might like to consider registering with one local to the university and given a list of ones she could choose from. She chose to stay with our local one which, as it's turned out, was the best decision.

20% of cases in 16-30 year olds result in Long Covid.

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1407994792265535488?s=19

Case numbers matter.