Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Cornwall data table for MSOA with a rate 100 or more per 100,000 in the most recent week

Cornwall other MSOAs with a non-suppressed case rate

and finally Cornwall MSOAs with a suppressed rate (shown as 0 for simplicity)

and to place Cornwall in the broader context it has the lowest cumulative rate per 100,000 of any UTLA in England.

So, I’m a bit confused by vaccination uptake.

When I look by region in England, south west has the highest first dose at 78%. Is this out of date?

How is the U.K. on 81% if the highest England region is on 78%?

Those charts suggest to me that the current rise in cases is not particularly student-led (or at least not in Nottingham) It's nothing like as patchy as it was in the autumn. From what I know some students have returned to uni and are in end of term party mode, but so are Y11s and Y13s as well as other unvaccinated teens and young adults - so they're not as geographically concentrated as the students were back in September. There was some interesting data I saw recently (sorry, lost the link) comparing case rates by school year group, which showed a recent sharp rise in cases in Y11 and Y13, both higher than either Y10 or Y12, suggesting post exams partying being a bigger risk than schools themselves.

@Itsprobablynotcominghome

So, I’m a bit confused by vaccination uptake.

When I look by region in England, south west has the highest first dose at 78%. Is this out of date?

How is the U.K. on 81% if the highest England region is on 78%?

@Itsprobablynotcominghome. The overall England figure is based on the ONS population estimate, whilst the regional figures are based on NIMS (national immunisation management system) figures. The overall NIMS population figure for England is around five million higher than the ONS figure. Hence the percentage mismatch

@boys3

Ah thanks. Right so we’re not doing as well as I thought then. That’s a shame.

Albeit my flat has had two vaccination letters for the previous tenant and the landlord. Both of whom live abroad. So even if you use the NIMS numbers, it’s not completely terrible.

Only marginally less better. I’d say the take up rates are still really good so far, obviously the younger groups not worked through so take up in those remains to be seen.

In reality the figure is somewhere between the NIMS and ONS figures. As others on the thread have identified the fact that we as a country aren’t really sure how many people live here is in itself something of an issue. Particularly if funding at more local levels for health, school places etc is based around population.

My understanding is that the ONS population estimates are the most reliable best guess available of the size of the population, and draw on a range of sources. The only reason I can see for using the NIMS database (which draws on GP data) is that you need to use this for distributing vaccines right down to GP practice level (as ONS estimates don't go to that level) I'm really not sure why they don't use ONS population estimates (or even better, ONS over 18 population estimates, which also exist) when looking at uptake by local authority on the dashboard. Where I live (an area with high international mobility) the NIMS population estimate is about 30% higher than the ONS estimate, so our vaccination rate looks appalling which has been causing concern on social media with people coming up with all sorts of incorrect theories around vaccine hesitancy in our area, when as a proportion of actual population we're about average.

Rising rate in Warwick District now confirmed as being another student outbreak: www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/warwickshires-rising-covid-rates-almost-20877613 "Shade Agboola, director of public health in Warwickshire, said: "The rise in rate in Warwick is almost entirely driven by this very, very large outbreak at Warwick University.

"This site is in Coventry, so there is a lot of work with public health in Coventry and ourselves to put in additional testing."

While the campus is based in Coventry, many of the university's students live in towns in the south of the county, such as Warwick and Leamington."

@boys3

Only marginally less better. I’d say the take up rates are still really good so far, obviously the younger groups not worked through so take up in those remains to be seen.

In reality the figure is somewhere between the NIMS and ONS figures. As others on the thread have identified the fact that we as a country aren’t really sure how many people live here is in itself something of an issue. Particularly if funding at more local levels for health, school places etc is based around population.

Yes, it's very confused.

UK have 5.6m EU citizens who applied for settled status, 400k in process and maybe more who haven't applied including children. It had been thought to be 3m when it was discussed linked to Brexit, quite an increase to now be definitely over 6m. We don't know how many went back to EU countries, nor if they'll return, an article about the hospitality industry suggested some were still on furlough but may or may not return. Officially ONS says roughly 6m non-EU migrants; the greater restrictions for non EU migrants could make it more likely that EU migrants are unknown than those from other countries, or it could mean a higher proportion of non-EU migrants who aren't yet officially registered. Overseas British citizens including Hong Kongers moving here for good and covid homecomers are additions who may not be registered yet too. Either way, 6m will definitely be a low estimate.

So, what was 66m population in 2019 is at least 70 m, but I think it's reasonable to say under 80 m in the UK. if I were to bet, from all the various reports about migration I've looked at in the last few days, 72-75m would be a good estimate, 1m or so being covid migrants who went to stay with family and haven't yet returned but will.

Patients with covid on ventilators rose by 41% last week, numbers are apparently now back to where they were at the end of April.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/23/nhs-alarm-rise-number-uk-covid-patients-ventilators

And deaths are rising, 27 yesterday, 19 today.

@Eloundahigh

And deaths are rising, 27 yesterday, 19 today.

Isn’t that falling?

"We're not sinking!"

@TheSunIsStillShining

"We're not sinking!"

Are you?

I’m sure some will always feel like this no matter what.

[quote herecomesthsun]Patients with covid on ventilators rose by 41% last week, numbers are apparently now back to where they were at the end of April.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/23/nhs-alarm-rise-number-uk-covid-patients-ventilators[/quote]
when numbers were so low any big increase of course would be 40% rise.

4,077 people were at the peak of the previous wave
currently 250

39,254 people were in hospital at the peak of the previous wave currently 1500

Isn’t that falling?

I assume they mean rising as opposed to last week.
Tuesday/Wednesday last week 10&9
This week 27&19

However Thursday last week was also 19, so maybe we'll get a lower Thursday and it'll even out a bit.

Ok good point thanks.

Also Easter that context is useful

Downing Street briefing starting shortly

Just watching the press conference - nothing of much substance in it. First question is a very good and perfectly clear question on whether the people in hospital are those who have failed to take up the offer of a vaccine, or whether they are too young to have been offered it, but vaccines minister just waffles and completely fails to answer. I wish the BBC would push them a bit more when they do this. If he doesn't know, why can't he just say so? (And go away and find out!)

@EasterIssland

If the increase in cases won't be connected to an increase in serious illness & death (as we are hoping), then I wouldn't be expecting a 40% increase in people on mechanical ventilators in the space of a week.

So it's worthy of note.

It would be great if it just turns out to be an insignificant anomaly. Let's hope so.

...then I wouldn't be expecting a 40% increase in people on mechanical ventilators...

Just a clarification on terminology - these numbers do not include people who are actually on ventilators. These are patients in ICU who can be put on ventilation immediately if it is required. In practice, many of them are receiving some sort of respiratory support, but it is often extra oxygen rather than highly invasive ventilation.

From the government dashboard:

England figures are the numbers of patients in beds which are capable of delivering mechanical ventilation and includes Nightingale hospitals.

Another clarification - these numbers do not just include people on ventilators. It's everyone in an ICU bed that can deliver ventilation.