Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@lonelyplanet

Yes interesting that the rules have changed. I'm not sure it has been advertised clearly. Our school has a year group closed and the information to parents provided by the LA didn't say this. I wonder how many people know.

Our school told us

Then on the gov website you can choose it is an option

Maybe it depends on the area of the country you're in.

True, @MarshaBradyo

Interesting article on a report presented to London Assembly Health Committee:
London has a "perfect storm" of factors which could lead to an increase in Covid-19 cases, public health experts have warned

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-57561744

(I didn’t know Newham had used alternative accommodation offered to those unable to isolate adequately.)

But lonely, the whole year group won’t have been considered close contacts, will they?

@JanFebAnyMonth

But lonely, the whole year group won’t have been considered close contacts, will they?

Can you believe here 1 case closed 6 classes

Me either but I no longer think close contacts is a rare thing!

But lonely, the whole year group won’t have been considered close contacts, will they?

It's the only way the school can close the year group isn't it - which has big staffing benefits for the school if any of the teachers are genuine close contacts so seems pretty common in every school I've seen.

MSOAs with the current highest rates. Seems to pickup on some student areas as highlighted by several posters yesterday, or in the case of Durham City the Uni itself.

A few that have jumped from nowhere - Birmingham Selly Oak as an example (uni/ student area?).

The 0 represent suppressed numbers; just allows the conditional formatting to work.

Most of the Blackburn MSOAs that appear in the top 50 look to have peaked, so whilst rates still high at least look to be on a downward track.

No Bolton MSOAs in the top 50 highest rates either; unless my eyes deceive me (quite possible)

Top 25 here

and 26-50

the thing to do of course would be the assess those 50 MSOAs against vaccination take up rates; and of course demographic profile. Although if that is to be done for 50 of them it is just as easy to do all 6791.

@sirfredfredgeorge

But lonely, the whole year group won’t have been considered close contacts, will they?

It's the only way the school can close the year group isn't it - which has big staffing benefits for the school if any of the teachers are genuine close contacts so seems pretty common in every school I've seen.

No it isn’t: PH / school can decide to close a whole bubble without designating all members close contacts. That having been said, I think currently (ie with delta), when this happens the whole bubble is being advised to test.

I work in a school and have two teens at the school.

@boys3

the thing to do of course would be the assess those 50 MSOAs against vaccination take up rates; and of course demographic profile. Although if that is to be done for 50 of them it is just as easy to do all 6791.

Although both those things would be difficult to do for student areas (which, incidentally, Selly Oak is), wouldn’t they?

well students would be included in the population estimates which are available at MSOA level, and vaccines are reported by 5 year age bands at that level too - depends where they are GP registered. So perhaps a broad brush stroke picture. Might not make the Tate though.

Indeed, there’s a fair number of university areas in that top 25. Certainly Fallowfield, Ladybarn, Withington areas of Manchester; Hyde Park, Headingly areas of Leeds; Jesmond areas in Newcastle and as already pointed out Selly Oak in Birmingham are university student housing areas. Why are these coming to light now though?

Look at Cornwall - amazing, what on earth went on at G7 ?

@NotDonna

Indeed, there’s a fair number of university areas in that top 25. Certainly Fallowfield, Ladybarn, Withington areas of Manchester; Hyde Park, Headingly areas of Leeds; Jesmond areas in Newcastle and as already pointed out Selly Oak in Birmingham are university student housing areas. Why are these coming to light now though?

It would be interesting to cross reference the cities with high university rates with their university end of term and moving out dates. Nottingham hasn't yet had it's student areas rise crazily high again (but given how bad it was at one point then there might be some level of herd immunity here) but it has had to have the police putting a dispersal order into place in the main student area because of so many student parties just this week... I guess see what happens to rates here in the next 7-10 days.

But post exams would generally see a quite significant rise in student mixing due to parties, whilst exam season would see less mixing on average whilst they are studying hard. It might be that exam season has slowed down the rise of the Delta variant in the student population.

No it isn’t: PH / school can decide to close a whole bubble without designating all members close contacts

I think that is exactly the distinction I was making, PHE can close the school without saying everyone is a close contact, but the school can only send home kids who they deem close contacts.

4 of the Cornwall MSOA is a worry, it's possible that areas that have largely avoided infections so far may be affected this time as their immunity is only from vaccination, which leaves a big gap still.

Ah sorry, @sirfredfredgeorge.

University areas now affected because Step Three included students returning to universities (although not all have).

Stephen Reicher on R4 this morning talking about importance of clear messaging to influence behaviour. Seeing thousands at football matches cheering and hugging does not help people to commit to safe contact in their own environments. Plus he said Scotland now has a marked increase in male infections (vs female rates) in the last few weeks, which he attributes to football fans getting together indoors.

A twitter thread discussing the effectiveness of LFTs based on German data:

twitter.com/econ_hmg/status/1407364316651737089

The study referenced in the discussion is a pre-print suggesting that LFTs may be one of the most effective measures in controlling Covid spread (iSage will not like it!).

As we know, LFTs are less sensitive than the PCR tests but they help finding cases faster and at scale. German data indicates that benefits outweigh potential negatives (infections missed, people with symptoms using LFTs instead of PCRs, etc).

@NuttyinNotts

This does not actually do that (link rates and term dates); however does look just at Nottingham MSOAs, sorted by current highest rate and including rates over the last 3 wks; and then those from end last September and into October when we saw the massive student driven spikes in Nottingham; along with many but by no means all other uni cities and towns.

38 MSOAs in Nottingham so this is the first 19 - familiar areas from the spike last autumn at the top; however not all the spike areas....yet.

and the other half of Nottingham; includes three big spike areas from last Autumn

University areas now affected because Step Three included students returning to universities (although not all have).

A lot of uni students will have had to go back to clear accommodation. My dd's lease for her 2nd year house runs out, and she then has 3 days before the next one starts and we're a 5 hour drive away, so there isn't a choice of dropping in for the day.

I think even if they hadn't released it, then you'd have had people going back as they would need to empty housing.

@MRex

4 of the Cornwall MSOA is a worry, it's possible that areas that have largely avoided infections so far may be affected this time as their immunity is only from vaccination, which leaves a big gap still.

Cornwall; bit of a breakdown (of the data, not societal collapse in the far South West).

This is the 16-29 population percentage (of those aged 16+, not the total MSOA population) plotted against the latest 7 day MSOA case rates per 100,000

Then to be followed by :
First dose vaccination take up rates for the 16-29s plotted against the latest 7 day MSOA case rates per 100,000;

and then second dose

With the data tables sorted by cases per 100,000 for the last week in descending order showing for each MSOA in Cornwall

First dose take up for 16-29s; 30-44s; 45-59s; Aged 60 and over

Second dose take up for those age bands

Prior and latest week case rates per 100,000 - overall not by age band

percentage of aged 16 and over population for each of those age bands

Cornwall 1st Dose vaccs graph 16-29 vs rates

Cornwall 2nd dose