Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@MarshaBradyo

The rest, feels a bit nanny maths to me but I’ll let someone else dissect it, it’s like reading someone’s messy notes not sure I’m following you.

But no I still don’t think the outcome will be chaos. It will be some daily deaths as with other illnesses.

Clearly I was right in the first place to bluntly decline your demand for an explanation as you clearly don't have the manners to debate respectfully.

so I wouldn't be too worried about the hospital "admissions" of children until they sort the data out

The faithfulness to the case rate ratio suggests delta is no more likely to hospitalise, so that's vey positive - However I thought we were told that hospitals were seeing lots more admittances of people due to the weather/holidays, and these are more likely than normal times to be children (play accidents etc.)

Which means we should see an increase in numbers of children admitted, and therefore if the admittance is only because of coincidental covid then the numbers should have gone up, that they haven't is also possibly a positive implying that we're actually capturing a higher proportion of cases than previously.

Does anyone have recent stats on all admittances so we can see if kids admittance are higher?

@MarshaBradyo

The rest, feels a bit nanny maths to me but I’ll let someone else dissect it, it’s like reading someone’s messy notes not sure I’m following you.

But no I still don’t think the outcome will be chaos. It will be some daily deaths as with other illnesses.

If we let Delta (or any future variant eg. Nepal) rip before we've reached herd immunity (and we're only halfway there) then cases (and therefore hospitalisations, and therefore deaths) will continue to rise.

Low-level restrictions are the way to go if we want to avoid another lockdown.

It's been discussed multiple times on here already how, at the population level, the Delta effect currently outweighs the vaccine effect because we don't have enough people vaccinated yet (and won't until most children have had two doses, which may not be until late 2022/2023).

QED.

Variants will occur. They may or may not be better at evading the vaccine. If they are not they will fade away, if they are they will spread. But we cannot say which the next variant will be, or, however much we speculate and however likely anyone feels it will be, we do not know for sure that another better-evader will occur at all.

And on a data thread I think it more appropriate to stick to known data than assumptions.

Totally agree this thread is always better when people stick to the facts backed by data. That is the joy of this particular thread.

I am a lurker on these threads (my maths is appalling so I don't understand it all post though, and I am very grateful to people who take the time to post.

They have always been data and stats threads though, not data and stats and opinions thread - I believe this is part of the "ethos" of the thread. Hopefully it will stay on track as I for one find them very interesting and wouldn't like to see them detailed by opinions instead of factual interpretations.

Quick Q. You might have discussed it further up thread and I’ve missed it.

New scientist have published an article about a lancet paper showing countries with an ‘elimination’ strategy doing better in terms of health, economy & civil liberties. The article is behind a paywall, but I can’t find the actual paper either. Does anyone have better googling skills than I do?

I'm another delurking to ask those with very strong opinions please just to leave this one thread in peace. I have followed this thread for well over a year, since BigChocFrenzy was around and have so valued the clear and numerate discussion. I've never posted but I check in daily. There are many other threads where posters can assert their intellectual and moral superiority over each other, please don't bring it here.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay
I imagine it's
www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00978-8/fulltext

One of the fundamental problems with the paper is that it's based on handling at 12 months after, rather than any other time, and it fails to deal with the obvious problems that the cost (both financial and liberal) and methods of elimination in Belgium and New Zealand would be very, very different.

Yes - I have never posted here before but followed religiously. It’s always been strictly data - good and bad. But not opinion or agenda led. It’s a shame that it appears to be taken over now like so many of the other threads.

Did anyone see these really interesting graphs from the Times over the weekend??

There is some discussion on Twitter and it seems the waiting for your age-group to be allowed a vaccination has a really beneficial nudge effect on uptake.

The images compare U.K. vaccination uptakes versus US where all adults were eligible simultaneously.

Sorry here’s the twitter link

mobile.twitter.com/tomhcalver/status/1406535534600757251

[quote sirfredfredgeorge]@RafaIsTheKingOfClay
I imagine it's
www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00978-8/fulltext

One of the fundamental problems with the paper is that it's based on handling at 12 months after, rather than any other time, and it fails to deal with the obvious problems that the cost (both financial and liberal) and methods of elimination in Belgium and New Zealand would be very, very different.[/quote]
I think that's an important point - it's really too early to look at overall costs of different approaches to tackling Covid at present as no country has finished dealing with it yet.

The other problem with this analysis is that it tells you which approaches may have worked best with hindsight and not what will work in the future. Countries that managed an elimination strategy all did so (as far as I'm aware) by a combination of closing borders and very prompt and heavy responses to tiny localised outbreaks. I don't think there are any counties where the outbreak had got well established who then managed to eliminate it via lockdowns. So looking at what worked (in a narrow and short term sense at least) for those that kept it out right from the start doesn't tell you what would work in the future for countries such as the UK, though there are zero-covid proponents who will try to read it that way.

[quote everythingthelighttouches]Sorry here’s the twitter link

mobile.twitter.com/tomhcalver/status/1406535534600757251[/quote]
Thanks for that - I think the "you've now reached the front of the queue" approach in the UK has worked really well at increasing uptake, as it's ended up being higher than initially predicted by polls. The press coverage of queues at walk-ins has been well orchestrated. There's quite a lot of differences with the US though, and their approach of offering it to all adults earlier than us is in part a consequence of higher vaccine hesitancy (meaning they needed to do this to keep their roll out going) rather than the cause.

BBC website:
Posted at 14:09
Hospitalisations treble in central Lancashire
A ward at the Royal Preston has been closed to new admissions after a Covid outbreak

The number of patients with Covid in Central Lancashire's hospitals has trebled in a week.o

Figures from the trust which runs the Royal Preston, Chorley and South Ribble Hospitals showed there were 61 Covid patients on 17 June.

The figures are the highest since 25 February, but still far short of the peak of 193 in December.

Lancashire is among the areas hardest hit by the Delta variant.

About a third of the patients are thought to have caught the virus after being admitted, the Local Democracy Reporting Service said.

Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (LTH) said it had taken "immediate action".

Across the UK, the number of coronavirus patients has been rising slowly after dropping below 1,000 in May. Latest UK figures show there are 1,316 people in hospital with Covid.

Could greater infectiousness of Delta variant mean hospital-acquired infections are even more of a problem in this wave?

Im not sure that it's necessarily the waiting a turn.
1 It's been handled so badly here. That anyone with kids and grandkids especially knows the risk of catching from them is high.
2 nhs could be easily overwhelmed as there is never spare capacity - and if youve been in a hospital you do not want to go back.
3 so some areas in us said they hardly knew there was a pandemic on.
4 the talk in uk of vax passports for pubs etc may have helped.

Basically lot of other factors in addition to waiting.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Could greater infectiousness of Delta variant mean hospital-acquired infections are even more of a problem in this wave?

You would hope that would be more than counteracted by vaccination. Data on the study of infection rates among hospital staff (nearly all double jabbed with Pfizer) are still showing them to have very low rates. And the majority of hospital inpatients are in the older age groups so also fully vaccinated.

twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1406978310022774788?s=19
An updated model from James Ward on Twitter showing estimated size and timing of third wave. Seems to me that it's all quite in the balance now and hard to call what exactly will happen by the autumn. He also caveats himself that he hasn't modelled in the impact of age groups mixing mainly with each other. Doing so would be likely to increase transmission (because unvaccinated children mix with each other) but possibly reduce hospitalisation and deaths (because older people mix less with children)

Really good thread @Firefliess

Interesting about the hospital transmission

"About a third of the patients are thought to have caught the virus after being admitted, the Local Democracy Reporting Service said."

Has that been the case throughout, do we know? Figures for people "admitted with something else but also have covid, or catch it once in" as compared with "admitted because of covid".

At @EndoplasmicReticulum I think around December/January the BMJ stated that up to 40% of people in hospital with Covid caught it whilst in there.

I don’t think that lancet piece is saying anything different to previous papers on other epidemics and pandemics. It just seems to be confirming that what we previously knew about the effects of seem to be holding true in this one.

I’m not sure I get the idea that there’s going to be some sort of u turn in fortunes.

EndoplasmicReticulum It has varied depending on the prevalence in the community.

It's varied, this has some data from last year
www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-ongoing-problem-of-hospital-acquired-infections-across-the-uk/

In the last week of reporting, probable HCAIs made up 27% of all new patients in hospital with COVID-19

But 1/3rd is higher than most of the period (although it's also varied across hospitals) and I would say normally we've had high levels of hospital acquired when the community rates are declining (post lockdown etc.) as that's when there's most people in hospital with covid and the least community.

But the levels of hospitalisation all round are different currently. Certainly don't think 1/3rd is in any way suggestive of different infection controls that previously worked failing.