Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@sirfredfredgeorge

I'd like to know there's a health plan that's more than shrugging shoulders

There's been no health plan for the damage to health caused by isolation/lockdown etc, and ways to address that are known, and impacting a lot more people.

Exactly

What are you all suggesting?

Harms from disruption to school children is ok?

@sirfredfredgeorge

I think the focus is purely on the economy

No, it's on people who vote conservative.

I was thinking more conservative MPs. Johnson is miles out from the next election. Getting covid sorted well before that and getting life back to normal as quickly as possible would have benefitted him in 5 years. Dragging it out by always doing the minimum at the last minute doesn’t benefit him at all in terms of the electorate.

@Firefliess

It's not quite as simple as reaching a herd immunity threshold in each age group. For herd immunity to keep infection rates low, we need to look at rates in each social grouping. Primary aged kids don't only mix with other primary aged kids - so vaccinating parents and siblings will help. For example, if the average primary aged child with Covid has 30 primary aged contacts and 20 of them are non-immune (ie not yet had Covid) and 10% of these contracts catch it, that'll be 2 catching it so an R rate of 2 within primary aged children. However if half of them catch it at weekends or holidays and their contacts are all older (vaccinated) people, then the average number of primary aged contacts might be more like 15, 10 of whom non- immune, one of whom catches it, so R rate of 1 (and falling as more develop immunity) So I think it's genuinely hard to call.

Seems less likely to me that we could get on top of secondary aged kids that way because they have more contacts within schools (different classes for different subjects) and also tend to socialise more with one another outside school.

That has really interesting implications for the summer holiday and then the return to school, doesn't it?

Over the summer, the level of community immunity could be sufficient to repress infection and bring it down even amongst unvaccinated children, but then as soon as they are back in school again, effective R in schools will shoot up again and another wave can take off?

Contacts for primary age, though, are wider than you would think. While secondary age children have more in-school contacts because of different subjects / sets and larger year groups, their socialising outside school will tend to be repeated contact with a particular group. Primary age children will often have after-school group care - after school clubs or childminders that cross multiple classes or multiple schools - and many will also attend multiple organised activities. I know of a school-based outbreak in part of the country where multiple schools were affected badly by infection in an out of school performing arts group, for example, and that then had an impact on a gymnastics club and on to another indoor sports club attended by the same children on a different night.

The other question I have is how will we know cases are in primary when staff are vaccinated?

It’s more likely to be spreading asymptomatically than picked up in LFT by staff. We don’t use them on dc

Our last cluster was picked up by a (partially vaccinated) parent testing PCR positive and by an (unvaccinated) older sibling testing positive on an LFT. That immediately revealed 4 children amongst their contacts who were PCR positive. Those who isolated as a result have not been tested, but obviously a sensible thing to do would be to PCR test them all before they return to school.

Others have been picked up by routine ONS testing or similar sampling studies.

You will get asymptomatic cases. Everyone was aghast at high number on mass testing of various places.

If I had to wait 6 years I’d prefer high aquired immunity for every other child. This would make it safer for mine.

@MarshaBradyo

You will get asymptomatic cases. Everyone was aghast at high number on mass testing of various places.

If I had to wait 6 years I’d prefer high aquired immunity for every other child. This would make it safer for mine.

I know you get asymptomatic cases.

I am not particularly relishing the scenario in which, as all other restrictions have been lifted and you want no isolation for contacts (and I have had a vaccination that gives me a 1 in 20 chance of being hospitalised if I catch Covid), I will face over 30 children for 6 hours per day in a very enclosed space. If we are really lucky, and detect one case, then i will know that at least 4 others in the class will also be infected, possibly more. As I cannot send any of those home, I will have to just wait, as that 4 becomes 16, and the 16 the whole of the class and onto the school, sending home only the few who actually show symptoms severely enough for parents to accept.

Will I be one of the 19 in 20, or one of the 1 in 20? Who knows? Will I pass the infection on to my elderly parents, who through age will have mounted a less good response to the vaccine? Who knows. How many of the children will infect the vulnerable within the family? Who knows? What will happen to the child with cystic fibrosis within the class? Who knows.

Why does society regard this as an acceptable risk? Who knows.

@cantkeepawayforever

Data query for the data thread:

Herd immunity.

My understanding of how herd immunity works (in general) is that if an individual catches an infection, the immunity in their ring of contacts means that it is unlikely that the infection is passed on, and that if it is, it is only to a small number, who again have a ring of very largely immune contacts. This keeps outbreaks small and self-limiting.

The degree of immunity needed in the community for this to work will vary according to the infectiousness of the disease involved.

For Covid, where the aim of herd immunity is being targeted through vaccination, doesn't the fact that we are doing this via age group make the calculation very different?

People without immunity are not randomly distributed amongst the community, each surrounded by a largely immune 'ring'. Instead, the unvaccinated are very largely collected together (and largely in the most Covid--unsafe places such as schools, colleges etc).

So in this particular case, do we need to look, not at the overall vaccination / immunity percentage to achieve herd immunity, but the vaccination / immunity percentage in every age group?

So regardless of the percentage vaccinated 'of adults', or even 'of the whole community', there will not be true herd immunity that actually prevents outbreaks and spread until all age groups have achieved the critical vaccination / infection induced level of herd immunity?

There's a number of incorrect assumptions within the discussion on herd immunity on this thread.

Everyone involved for example seems to assume that vaccination is a binary situation - you're vaccinated = you're immune = you cannot catch and pass on the virus. The problem is that this is false. Vaccines reduced it considerably with the Alpha strain (>80%) but there aren't any figures out for Delta yet.

In the herd immunity calculation, the % to use is not then people who have been vaccinated, but people who have sufficient immunity to prevent them from passing on the virus. It's possible that even if you vaccinated 100% of people, with sufficient immunity evasion, the virus can still spread.

And yes - it's well understood that the calculation of herd immunity requirements is far more complex than a simple average across the whole population. Those with the largest number of contacts are far more important than those with the fewest. Probably the worst places for this are schools, which as you point out is where the most of the unvaccinated are. The only way to prevent this from driving infections would be to prevent the virus from ever getting into schools, but that relies on everyone else being vaccinated AND the vaccines being 100% effective at stopping transmission which they're not.

In short, we're a long way from herd immunity imo. Much of the suppression in cases is still down to social distancing - both government mandated and individual choices.... the latter is often forgotten, but they make a big difference.

The way the graphs are going, I think we could get R back to 1 with vaccines alone based on the current variant (Delta) and existing restrictions remaining, but without vaccinating children, we'll never achieve herd immunity, and if the Nepal variant gets a hold, it may not even be possible to achieve herd immunity.

www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/20/under-18s-could-be-reservoirs-for-virus-when-all-adults-are-jabbed-expert-warns?fbclid=IwAR0JyOsGYv0hyZGx6ZnaMF2blXhFbKd7iW7bBkfA3-5BYoBa_pLfjyFecNI

• Julian Tang from University of Leicester, who was also quoted in the Nature article posted yesterday.

Cant if it’s not an acceptable risk then vaccinate. Not huge disruption which puts high cost on children.

@cantkeepawayforever

I have had a vaccination that gives me a 1 in 20 chance of being hospitalised if I catch Covid

Huh? Are you so frail that prior to vaccination you were guaranteed being hospitalised with covid??

I think you misunderstand the numbers.

e.g. For a typical 40 yr old (obv risk is dependent on age), I think the risk of being hospitalised before was about 0.1 to 0.5% - I don't have the official figures to hand but it's in this range.
Let's say Delta is twice as deadly and let's pick the worst case (0.5%), so now unvaccinated 40 yr old = 1% chance of hospitalisation.

If vaccines reduce that risk by 80% (actually over 90%) then it takes the risk down from 1 in 100, to 1 in 500 or 0.2%

As far as the rest of your post goes, yes - once it starts spreading properly, the plan "to live with it", will start to fall apart because people will start taking their own measures and it will be complete chaos.

As far as the rest of your post goes, yes - once it starts spreading properly, the plan "to live with it", will start to fall apart because people will start taking their own measures and it will be complete chaos.

Why if adults are vaccinated would it be chaos?

@MarshaBradyo

Cant if it’s not an acceptable risk then vaccinate. Not huge disruption which puts high cost on children.

Absolutely. Now remind me - why aren't we vaccinating children, when other countries are?

I thought it was down to risk assessments by JCVI looking at heart issue for young? (Can’t recall name)

@strangeshapedpotato

Apologies, yes, I realised that after I'd posted.

I am considerably older than your age 40, though!

1 in 500. About 550,000 teachers in the UK (quick Google, may not be accurate). 1 in 500 teachers = 1,100.

If exposed to high levels of virus in an enclosed space for 6 hours a day, what is the probability of someone who is vaccinated catching Covid, if there are no masks and no SD? Do we know that?

@MarshaBradyo

I thought it was down to risk assessments by JCVI looking at heart issue for young? (Can’t recall name)

JCVI not unpolitical, though. The lack of Pfizer vaccine to actually deliver vaccination for the over 12s is almost certainly part of the calculation.

We must be getting more Pfizer at some point? Was it September? Could be misremembering

@MarshaBradyo

As far as the rest of your post goes, yes - once it starts spreading properly, the plan "to live with it", will start to fall apart because people will start taking their own measures and it will be complete chaos.

Why if adults are vaccinated would it be chaos?

Sigh - I'm sorry but if after all the explanations there have been on multiple threads on MN, you still believe that vaccines on their own are sufficient and provide a bullet proof vest for anyone who chooses to take them then nothing I or anyone else can say now will change your view and I really can't be arsed trying to any more.

@strangeshapedpotato
This is the data thread. People are free to ask questions about statistics and data and the implications. I get that you are feeling frustrated but please don't be rude.

@MarshaBradyo

I thought it was down to risk assessments by JCVI looking at heart issue for young? (Can’t recall name)

Yes I agree.

JCVI are looking at the picture from the perspective "Is the risk to children from the vaccine, less than the risk to them from Delta" as opposed to taking a more wide-ranging view of what is the risk of letting the virus continue to circulate among children.

[quote EducatingArti]@strangeshapedpotato
This is the data thread. People are free to ask questions about statistics and data and the implications. I get that you are feeling frustrated but please don't be rude.[/quote]
I wasn't rude - I just said I wasn't going to get into that argument AGAIN!

[quote EducatingArti]@strangeshapedpotato
This is the data thread. People are free to ask questions about statistics and data and the implications. I get that you are feeling frustrated but please don't be rude.[/quote]
Thanks. Honestly it’s such a shame this has been infiltrated and is now like all the other threads

@MarshaBradyo

We must be getting more Pfizer at some point? Was it September? Could be misremembering

If so, then what will hapen is:

Schools re-open. Cases start rising. there will be a sudden decision that maybe children should be vaccinated, but the government will never admit that this is because of a decision about supply, and will never admit that schools are inherently Covid-insecure, but will suddenly make the vaccine available....

A bunch of children, probably from disadvantaged areas, will already have missed out on some more school by that point, and some further adults will have been infected and died.