Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I think the focus is purely on the economy

No, it's on people who vote conservative.

@MRex Not quite how you were using it but you are staring from a lower figure than you should be using, so still an underestimate.

Also on the hidden population - no-one is sure how many Europeans have returned to Europe to see out the pandemic but some have. Are you including that in your population estimates?

I have no issue with focus on the economy, good.

But focus needs to be on the harms to everyone. That general gist of putting children as a priority seems to have been forgotten.

Children are potentially the ones who will suffer most harm if the economy collapses. That isnt to say that the balance is necessarily right but you cant look at harm to children without considering that harm.

Yes of course which is why I said good re economic focus.

This doesn’t mean children need to lag as they are

[quote RosaMoline]@Piggywaspushed
Calling them ‘doom mongers’ is a fair epithet in my opinion, as the 4 or 5 notorious posters seem to positively get a vicarious thrill out of it.[/quote]
No, its a form of cancel culture which I am saddened to see on this thread.

@alreadytaken

To help those trying to estimate current numbers with resistance to infection - ONS estimates that the age 16 group went up 5% between 20 and 26 May (to 31%). The age 17 increased by about 6% to 36.7%., age 18 up to 42%.

Not everyone developed antibodies in response to past infection as some fight it off without ever doing so. This was discussed at length in the past. These figures therefore understate those with some resistance to infection.

Although clearly some people dont want to believe it the evidence from other countries is that infections in children drop substantially when enough adults are vaccinated. Therefore it doesnt follow that all children will be infected, although I agree London may be different because of the different age mix of the population.

Other countries who've managed to bring cases down in children via vaccination have been doing two key things differently from us though: 1) Not having high levels of Delta variant to combat, and 2) Vaccinating older children. It remains to be seen whether we'll manage to bring cases down in children by vaccinating only over 18s - the summer holidays may help - but most of the current signs and modelling suggest not to me.

@alreadytaken

To help those trying to estimate current numbers with resistance to infection - ONS estimates that the age 16 group went up 5% between 20 and 26 May (to 31%). The age 17 increased by about 6% to 36.7%., age 18 up to 42%.

Not everyone developed antibodies in response to past infection as some fight it off without ever doing so. This was discussed at length in the past. These figures therefore understate those with some resistance to infection.

Although clearly some people dont want to believe it the evidence from other countries is that infections in children drop substantially when enough adults are vaccinated. Therefore it doesnt follow that all children will be infected, although I agree London may be different because of the different age mix of the population.

All the cities are affected to a degree by lower vaccine take-up as well as a higher proportion of children than outside the cities; with slightly higher propensity for spread between children from newer variants I think it increases risk that outbreaks in any area will affect a lot more children. I'd prefer to be wrong, but it depends how high vaccinations can get. If we vaccinated even half the teenagers that would probably be enough to prevent excessive spread through schools and socialising.

Concerning study about how Covid can affect the brain

A woman I know with long Covid has been having severe sudden memory loss for random things. Eg how to drive her car, worryingly. It's very concerning indeed.

Even if secondary were vaccinated aren’t the clusters in primary classrooms enough for it to take hold? Across primary at least.

[quote alreadytaken]@MRex Not quite how you were using it but you are staring from a lower figure than you should be using, so still an underestimate.

Also on the hidden population - no-one is sure how many Europeans have returned to Europe to see out the pandemic but some have. Are you including that in your population estimates?[/quote]
Can I ask you to give your estimate instead? It would be interesting to see where you think we've got to.

The Europeans I know who left for the pandemic tended to be Eastern Europeans, and a lot of them have come back. I briefly thought about taking it into account and gave up. I think general migration habits affect NIMS data a lot, with loads of people registering who move on again (not just Europeans), but I was working from the 68m ONS total so don't need to discount the wilder excess of NIMS. Or not accept that our population is 80m, whichever is the fact.

Take chicken pox

We have high immunity in community as acquired when young but still it’s spread between children before the general age of immunity

Wouldn’t this be the same even if 12 plus vaccinated?

@MarshaBradyo

Even if secondary were vaccinated aren’t the clusters in primary classrooms enough for it to take hold? Across primary at least.

Quite possibly. Though some of the kids in primary schools will be catching it from older siblings, single-jabbed parents or other out of school contacts currently, so it remains to be seen. Israel does seem to have managed to get cases right down without vaccinating under 12s, though that's using Pfizer vaccine, which is clearly more effective than AZ at stopping infections, and not (as yet) having much Delta spread to worry about. There are more limited options for what to do about primary aged kids though - ventilation, masks maybe? Vaccines aren't currently an option.

Do Israel do the equivalent to ONS testing? I assume so

I know with our nursery there were zero infections of anything until primary schools went back, then a range of bugs started. It's still the case that friends who have had nursery bubbles burst still have nobody else go on to be infected (PCR tests are being requested due to Delta as well). Whether the same would hold true for covid and primaries would be protected by older sibling vaccination is possible but not certain.

Immunity for chicken pox is a bit messier - eh you can get it younger or later

But why would Covid not reach primary age children in the same way cp tends to?

R is a bit higher I think but we see it as something children will likely get

Data query for the data thread:

Herd immunity.

My understanding of how herd immunity works (in general) is that if an individual catches an infection, the immunity in their ring of contacts means that it is unlikely that the infection is passed on, and that if it is, it is only to a small number, who again have a ring of very largely immune contacts. This keeps outbreaks small and self-limiting.

The degree of immunity needed in the community for this to work will vary according to the infectiousness of the disease involved.

For Covid, where the aim of herd immunity is being targeted through vaccination, doesn't the fact that we are doing this via age group make the calculation very different?

People without immunity are not randomly distributed amongst the community, each surrounded by a largely immune 'ring'. Instead, the unvaccinated are very largely collected together (and largely in the most Covid--unsafe places such as schools, colleges etc).

So in this particular case, do we need to look, not at the overall vaccination / immunity percentage to achieve herd immunity, but the vaccination / immunity percentage in every age group?

So regardless of the percentage vaccinated 'of adults', or even 'of the whole community', there will not be true herd immunity that actually prevents outbreaks and spread until all age groups have achieved the critical vaccination / infection induced level of herd immunity?

Yes, this is certainly something that quite a few scientists have pointed out on Twitter.

I think the clue is in the word 'herd'. Herds don't subdivide off into discrete groups. (I appreciate society does mix!)

It's not quite as simple as reaching a herd immunity threshold in each age group. For herd immunity to keep infection rates low, we need to look at rates in each social grouping. Primary aged kids don't only mix with other primary aged kids - so vaccinating parents and siblings will help. For example, if the average primary aged child with Covid has 30 primary aged contacts and 20 of them are non-immune (ie not yet had Covid) and 10% of these contracts catch it, that'll be 2 catching it so an R rate of 2 within primary aged children. However if half of them catch it at weekends or holidays and their contacts are all older (vaccinated) people, then the average number of primary aged contacts might be more like 15, 10 of whom non- immune, one of whom catches it, so R rate of 1 (and falling as more develop immunity) So I think it's genuinely hard to call.

Seems less likely to me that we could get on top of secondary aged kids that way because they have more contacts within schools (different classes for different subjects) and also tend to socialise more with one another outside school.

I also am not at this stage very comfortable with just letting kids get it. I don't think we have enough information on consequences to longer term health yet.

The cost of not letting them get it is huge already.

I don’t think it’s possible to stop it happening at some point

If someone could think about CP in relation to this I’d be very interested!

If we think the risk from Covid is too high for children then vaccination is the more obvious decision rather than disruption which comes with big downsides for them

@Piggywaspushed

I also am not at this stage very comfortable with just letting kids get it. I don't think we have enough information on consequences to longer term health yet.

I agree. I expect the majority will be fine, but how big the minority are is a concern. I knew a couple of people as a teen with ME from flu; if we expand that based on covid severity then to me that's an unacceptably high percentage with longer term issues. We also have more 5-9 infected by Delta, as we had more 10-14 infected by Kent; what if the next variant is 0-4 and more severe with older kids? I'd like to know there's a health plan that's more than shrugging shoulders.

I'd like to know there's a health plan that's more than shrugging shoulders

There's been no health plan for the damage to health caused by isolation/lockdown etc, and ways to address that are known, and impacting a lot more people.

I'm not sure how we get around the kids catching it.

LfT are no good on the younger kids. And regular PCR tests would not really be practical.

It's a long time until we are anywhere near young kids getting vaccinated. Look how hesitant they are for over 12's here.

And I think too many people are now done with it all. And won't follow enough of the guidance.

It does worry me as I know a child who did struggle after what we think was Covid (in the early days of pandemic).

I don't think my kids have ever had Covid.