I'm afraid this makes no sense to me " I'd already reference Israel - they were fully locked down so there was no community spread when they opened up, without any community spread it doesn't matter if anyone is vaccinated - just like there were few cases in July-September in 2020 without any vaccinations here in the UK."
Obviously once you open up you get community spread if there is still virus floating around. This is a seasonal virus, to a limited extent, so you get less of it in summer.
@MRex ONS data underestimates, not overestimates, the number of people with antibodies because they sample the co-operative. Non-compliant people are more likely to have been exposed to the virus and have some degree of natural immunity.
Children were not often tested until September last year. Anyone's guess how many were infected during that wave since they werent in school but the number of children who have already been infected is generally underestimated.
The way that hotspots increase and then drop back show exactly what you would expect with high and rising levels of antibodies in the population. The virus finds less people to infect and gradually dies back. This is now a self limiting problem unless there is a vaccine evading variant - but the faster vaccines can be placed into arms the fewer people risk hospitalisation and long covid and the more the NHS can get on with the backlog of other health care. .