Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@JamesAnderson

Sorry didn’t mean to quote. To answer your question: sorry no idea!

@JamesAnderson

Are there any figures for hospitalisations with flu during a bad year does anyone know? I'm wondering where the NHS limit is?

I read on an earlier data thread that it seemed cases in Bolton in particular, but other areas too, had hit the vaccine ceiling and then started to come down.
Are we expecting to see this nationwide?

It can't be similar enough to assess capacity because there will be a need to have separate wards to isolate flu cases, wards to isolate covid cases, and possibly wards to isolate those with both.

Recent flu figures are here: bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-09553-0.
Flu surveillance reports might map previous years, I'm not sure.

These are the surveillance reports: www.gov.uk/government/news/weekly-national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-published

Are there any figures for hospitalisations with flu during a bad year does anyone know?
I'm wondering where the NHS limit is?

Capacity is not a fixed thing, and it's highly regional, and it depends on how much elective surgery you're willing (and able) to cancel.

Also flu hospitalisations in past years have caused elective to be cancelled etc. so it wouldn't represent anyway.

The CDC advice you quote is May - well after the dramatic drop in infections in children referred to - and when they started vaccinating children.

Vaccines are more effective against hospitalisation and death then against infection. That doesnt mean what you suggest because by your logic they also increase the number of those with too low a level to be picked up at all.

You ignore Israel and Brazil.

A disproportionate number of the hospitalisations so far in this wave are in the North West - where it appears that cases are levelling off and admissions to hospital may also be levelling off. If vaccination levels can be rapidly increased elsewhere - and the NHS is certainly trying with lots of pop up clinics this weekend - the third wave is not going to be a tsunami.

Capacity is certainly variable, not least because staff are exhausted.

You ignore Israel and Brazil

I'd already reference Israel - they were fully locked down so there was no community spread when they opened up, without any community spread it doesn't matter if anyone is vaccinated - just like there were few cases in July-September in 2020 without any vaccinations here in the UK.

That doesnt mean what you suggest because by your logic they also increase the number of those with too low a level to be picked up at all

I never said that, I said symptoms (ie changed the decision of people to test when you're only testing through symptoms as was the guidelines in US and Israel - although it certainly appears to be established that vaccination reduces viral load,
www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01316-7
and that LFD testing particularly is sensitive to viral load
www.gov.uk/guidance/understanding-lateral-flow-antigen-testing-for-people-without-symptoms
"When a person has low levels of virus in their system, lateral flow tests are less sensitive than some of the other tests we use"

So, whilst it wasn't part of my suggestion as to why case rates are not consistent before/after vaccination process, it certainly appears to add to it - even fewer LFD positives.

Is no one going to mention that one of the 4 or 5 regular doom monger posters in these threads confidently predicted 100,000 infections by the 21st?

Actually, as a regular lurker, I have noticed that most of them have gone a bit quiet over the last couple of days 😉

@RosaMoline

Is no one going to mention that one of the 4 or 5 regular doom monger posters in these threads confidently predicted 100,000 infections by the 21st?

It was a projection based upon the data at the time.

Now we're looking at reaching 100000 in just over a months time.

Did they now? I don't mind doom if it's backed with evidence (like posters in here spotting the Kent variant apparently before Boris did) but some of the recent doom has seemed a bit gratuitous for this thread.

Thanks @MRex

The weekly flu surveillance reports go back to 2013.

It's interesting to see there's been virtually no flu this winter at all.

@NannyAndJohn
We’ll see eh?

[quote RosaMoline]@NannyAndJohn
We’ll see eh?[/quote]
11000 current cases with a doubling time of approximately 10 days.

Easy to do the maths.

Some of the recent doom has seemed a bit gratuitous for this thread

Probably because one or two of the more notorious doomsters have infested it

I don't post much on the data threads because, frankly, I'm not enough of a statistician, but I've always found them a really useful source of facts

Shame to see that compromised ...

I agree Puzzled. I don't post much either but have been reading since the first thread.

I agree too, it’s a shame as there’s the rest of the site for it.

@NannyAndJohn
With all due respect, that’s what you said about the 21st - 2 days time.
On or around the 19th July, if you’re correct, I’ll hold my hands up.

Here are a few back of the envelope doomsday case scenarios:

• If all local authorities follow the trajectory of Blackburn, we will peak at maximum 67,000 cases per day (prevalence of 700/100,000 over 7 days);
• If whole of the UK follows Bolton (which is slightly more realistic since vaccination rates in Bolton are closer to the national average), we will peak at maximum 43,000 cases (450/100,000 over 7 days).

The numbers above are absolute maximums since in theory I should be adjusting for areas that have already peaked but we are talking about doom and gloom, right?

In reality, both of these scenarios are unlikely since we are vaccinating more people every day and reducing the pool of susceptible individuals.

Here is a useful graph showing how (i) old hotspots (Bolton, Blackburn, Rossendale, etc) are going down and (ii) new hotspots (e.g. Newcastle, Country Durham, Leeds) are, unfortunately, going up. However, the vaccination / immunity ceiling appears to be working:

twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1405908441017819141

"It was a projection based upon the data at the time."

Interesting though because we all had access to the same data and most of us thought you were way out.

I don't mind healthy, informed and robust debate that exists on this thread what I do mind is people calling people doom mongers and throwing shade. That is the language and tactics of wider MN and has no place on this board. Glass half (or fully) empty people have as much right to post on here (and have their data challenged) as optimists.

IMVHO.

Peace and Love.

In reality, both of these scenarios are unlikely since we are vaccinating more people every day and reducing the pool of susceptible individuals

I don't actually agree that we have complete evidence that the peaked areas cannot return, the peak can be because of additional restrictions in the area, both explicit in closed schools, isolating contacts, and in changes of behaviour by individuals.

That means the cases can return to going up once the isolation/behaviour change returns. i.e. I don't actually believe we have evidence that there is herd immunity in those areas.

That means the cases can return to going up once the isolation/behaviour change returns. i.e. I don't actually believe we have evidence that there is herd immunity in those areas.

Yes, it's a very fair challenge.

I think the example of earlier hotspots demonstrates that it is possible to turn the tide with voluntary behavioural changes and relatively light touch NPIs (e.g. testing). We were not there with Alpha without vaccinations (even though we had multiple Tiers). Swale, Thanet and East London just kept going up, up and up.

In other words, I believe we may be able to stop the growth even before we achieve true herd immunity. Adjustments to behaviour, some NPIs and better weather should help us get there.

“ Easy to do the maths.”

Same way you were doing maths few weeks ago and we told you I’d not happen and you told us we liked having the heads down in the sand and not seeing the reality. Would be nice you went back to the thread and apologised to us. But I know there was noise and the reality didn’t go as you expected but as we expected to go

@Piggywaspushed
Calling them ‘doom mongers’ is a fair epithet in my opinion, as the 4 or 5 notorious posters seem to positively get a vicarious thrill out of it.

I agree @wintertravel1980 you're almost certainly right about that, and I can't see a meaningful way to 100,000 cases (nor do I think current case rates are bad but that's an entirely different argument.) I just wanted to highlight the possibility.