Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

It's around 10% from recollection

But even if it was 20% in a primary school class of 30, that's still a potential 40 days of isolation before even 2/3rds immunity.

What is the value of that against the harm (or are you claiming no harm?)

SorFred,

Are you saying that it would be of benefit to keep all children (except anyone too ill to attend school) in class, in close contact, because that way 100% of them would get Covid as fast as possible?

Disregarding any risk that this might pose to any vulnerable children (none vaccinated), all staff (I am one of the oldest members of staff and I am fully vaccinated + time to develop immunity from today - ie everyone else is not in that position yet), everyone they contact at e.g. after school activities, and all members of their families? Remembering that vaccinations are not 100% effective, keeping everyone in school to incubate disease 'to get it over with faster' seems remarkably like the Government's plan last year, which contributed to the decision last March to lock down too late, and we know how successful that was...

I am old enough to have been of the era of 'chicken pox parties' - my DB has no children of his own due to mumps-linked infertility. Letting infectious diseases rip to 'get the inconvenience over quickly' doesn't sound like a great plan...

@sirfredfredgeorge

It's around 10% from recollection

But even if it was 20% in a primary school class of 30, that's still a potential 40 days of isolation before even 2/3rds immunity.

What is the value of that against the harm (or are you claiming no harm?)

I think your maths is right, and the proportion of school contacts who test positive quite possibly only half of that (hence twice as many isolations) And repeated isolations is hugely harmful for kids and families. But I don't that simply removing the requirements for contacts to isolate is realistically likely to happen anytime soon. You'd get massive outbreaks in schools fuelling wider outbreaks, hospital admissions and quite possibly teachers walking out or parents pulling kids out voluntarily. Better to vaccinate kids or else allow contacts to attend school via daily testing - both of those options would have a much bigger benefit for relatively little cost.

Do schools generally send contacts home after positive lft awaiting pcr test? Ds has a child in his class positive via lft awaiting positive pcr confirmation. Once pcr back positive whole year group self isolates. ill child has done postal test so taking longer to get result. Ill child’s whole family has covid atm (positive pcr tests) so there’s not much chance it’s a false positive lft. Seems crazy the bubble are all still mixing undistanced and going about different out of school clubs etc when ‘common sense’ would be to isolate in the situ now as they’re going to have to any day.

Are you saying that it would be of benefit to keep all children (except anyone too ill to attend school) in class, in close contact, because that way 100% of them would get Covid as fast as possible?

If we continue with the current restrictions, then all kids will get it, there simply aren't sufficient current restrictions to prevent infection, with the current levels, vaccinating over 12's wouldn't solve it, as it wouldn't come into effect for many months, and there are no vaccines for under 12's.

Therefore there are three options.
Repeated isolation of healthy individuals.
No isolation unless actually sick (ie you isolate at most once)

More restrictions to prevent the spread in this group, that would certainly require a lockdown.

I do not accept that we can keep the repeated isolation of healthy individuals whilst allowing people to go to the pub, I think it's wrong, but I'd be happy with closing the pubs, if the risks of kids getting covid quicker than they otherwise would is a problem.

Do schools generally send contacts home after positive lft awaiting pcr test?

Round here they do yes, and indeed it is the current guidelines to do that.

Do schools generally send contacts home after positive lft awaiting pcr test?

Yes

@reastie that is shocking and completely against NHS and DfE guidance! Positive LFT recipients are supposed to immediately isolate, and their household, and get a PCR.

@JanFebAnyMonth said child is off self isolating, but no contacts. School have said no others to self isolate until positive pcr received then whole year group will need to self isolate. We’re on at least day 3 since positive lft...

[quote Reastie]@JanFebAnyMonth said child is off self isolating, but no contacts. School have said no others to self isolate until positive pcr received then whole year group will need to self isolate. We’re on at least day 3 since positive lft...[/quote]
We didn’t do that, home while waiting

They're supposed to send contacts home as soon as there's a positive LFT. And if it turns out to be a false positive then they end their isolation immediately

Sorry I misunderstood @reastie but even then....

Sounds like they’re making up and changing rules as they go along then...

Maybe they should open up to 12+ vax similar to usa in a who can book first way. As the risk is low for 20yo too but need to start building immunity in different age groups. In fact in some ways (tuition cost aside) it is easier for uni students to study at home than any under 18.
Jabs given this weekend would take effect before end of term.
now there is an available vax the 12+ should be in the q to get it so that we can reduce isolations long term.
We cannot allow kids of any age to end up stuck at homeschool because the gov wont authorise vax.
If all kids have been offered a vax then stopping isolations is fair enough except when you are positive maybe.
My dc get coughs with most viruses. With restrictions removed they would be testing so frequently. And in fact in normal times we often go straight from one virus to another.

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/delta-variant-out-control-greater-20850157
Article in the MEN about school closures. I know there are more in Salford than those listed including an entire junior section at home!

@EducatingArti

Ditto in stockport!

Various places around the world have found infections drop in children when enough adults are vaccinated. We will soon have enough adults vaccinated, as long as young people continue to come forward.

This is a data thread - have some data www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01549-z

I think the MEN article does have data about numbers of schools being affected by Covid.
The article you link to is interesting and gives a summary of various different studies but even then says that the conclusions are mixed.
I hope you are right about cases in children reducing as adults get vaccinated.

Conclusions are mixed because the UK hasnt reached herd levels of immunity yet - Brazil, America, Israel have child infections reducing when they vaccinate enough adults, the UK has not yet vaccinated enough adults. The conclusion is cautious because other countries havent had much of the Delta variant yet and some countries have to rely on less effective vaccines.

If vaccinating adults proves to be insufficient, either because enough young adults dont come forward or because adults are not enough to manage Delta then expect a vaccination campaign for children in September.

America, Israel have child infections reducing when they vaccinate enough adults, the UK has not yet vaccinated enough adults

The UK has vaccinated as many adults as the US though? (differs in different areas of course) And the nature article doesn't have the data you think it does - it has data on symptomatic cases post vaccination, testing regimes are very different. The UK data is on cases - it has a massive industry in finding asymptomatic cases - so I don't agree the measurement is the same.

Israel also had essentially no community spread when they relaxed restrictions at the end of the vaccination process - the UK relaxed restrictions with significant community spread.

The US's "4th wave" when they opened up in many areas post initial vaccination, had lots of cases in low risk individuals (and likely even more symptomless ones given they rarely tested asymptomatically outside a few areas)

"so I don't agree the measurement is the same" What reason do you have to believe that symptomatic and asymptomatic infections change at different rates? Do you think Israel, America and Brazil all changed their method of counting and if so why?

Infections drop when enough adults are vaccinated. America gets away with less probably because 1. it's vaccinating any age and older teenagers mix and/or have jobs then take it into schools 2. it's using more Pfizer which is more effective after one dose. Probably more reasons if I really thought about it.

*What reason do you have to believe that symptomatic and asymptomatic infections change at different rates?

Because the vaccines, particularly in the short term after "being jabbed" are more successful at preventing symptomatic infection rather than infection at all, they also reduce symptoms where there are (so you might not test or even notice a brief fever whereas before you would've)

Do you think Israel, America and Brazil all changed their method of counting and if so why?

Because they only did diagnostic testing (ie with symptoms) they did little screening testing and also changed the rules on screening tests (LFD) for symptomful people don't need PCR confirmation if they're low risk (ie including fully vaccinated)
www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/resources/antigen-tests-guidelines.html

"A negative antigen result for a symptomatic person may not need confirmatory testing if the person has a low likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection For example, a low likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection would be a person who has not had a known or suspected exposure to a person with COVID-19 within the last 14 days or is fully vaccinated or has had a SARS-CoV-2 infection in the last 3 months."

So yes, the advice changed on testing in the US, which is why changes in simple symptomatic case numbers in the data is not necessarily representative.

Are there any figures for hospitalisations with flu during a bad year does anyone know?
I'm wondering where the NHS limit is?

I read on an earlier data thread that it seemed cases in Bolton in particular, but other areas too, had hit the vaccine ceiling and then started to come down.
Are we expecting to see this nationwide?

@JamesAnderson

Are there any figures for hospitalisations with flu during a bad year does anyone know? I'm wondering where the NHS limit is?

I read on an earlier data thread that it seemed cases in Bolton in particular, but other areas too, had hit the vaccine ceiling and then started to come down.
Are we expecting to see this nationwide?

Would be lovely if 11k was the top of the 3rd wave.

The fourth wave might be manageable if so.