Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

there is a thread already :)
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4274026-AstraZeneca-says-EU-loses-legal-bid-for-more-vaccine

@MarshaBradyo

Ha I feel the same

Just spotted Easter started one on good news thread - braver than me

im brave, born in an eu country and criticising the eu :)

European Commission just lost their case against astrazeneca: www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/18/markets-live-latest-coronavirus-news-pound-euro-ftse-100/

Interestingly, the latest ONS survey (published today) has revised the estimated Covid prevalence in secondary school children down to 0.2% (from 0.5% last week):

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/18june2021

The projection for false positives therefore increases to 20% (10,000 schoolchildren tested, 20 real positives, 12 reported real positives identified by LFTs, 3 false positives. 3/15 = 20%).

In general, the ONS survey re-iterates the point that post May 17 re-opening cases have been growing the fastest among young unvaccinated adults.

In general, the ONS survey re-iterates the point that post May 17 re-opening cases have been growing the fastest among young unvaccinated adults

Because they're not forced into isolation after a single case, so get to continue mixing, closing schools eliminates immediate spread in the group - but 10 days later they're all back mixing again and therefore catch it again. We're not actually eliminating any spread in the group, just spreading it out and making them isolate repeatedly with that harm.

In fact, looking at the areas where cases started dropping - isn't this what happened? So many people were forced into isolation that it stopped spreading in those groups, the PCR positivity rate never got high enough that most of these people actually were positive whilst in isolation so they'll still be susceptible when they come out and therefore the cases will remain high in the absence of any whole society lockdown to eliminate the chance of these groups coming into contact with the environment.

I'm increasingly convinced we need another full lockdown, 'cos I don't see any other way to stop this nonsense.

I can well understand people's frustrations about LFTs causing endless isolations in schools. But I'm not sure that simply stopping their use would help. If we fail to catch infectious children via LFTs and they go into school and infect lots of others, some of them will have symptoms and go for PCR tests. (The kids testing positive via LFTs may also get symptoms in a day or two) Increasing infections in schools will cause more disruption not less - at least in the short to medium term, until they've all had Covid - but as pointed out earlier, the rate at which we're allowing Covid to spread through schools currently isn't all that fast, there's still very large numbers vulnerable to catching it and causing more isolation for their peers. Maybe the summer holidays might help drive infections right down (as kids will have more of their contact with vaccinated adults and less with each other) But otherwise I see only two options - vaccinating kids or allowing daily LFTs as an alternative to isolation, which I believe is being trialled currently. The only other option is accepting another year of major disruption to education. Thinking that we can just abandon any efforts to test or isolate kids once the adults are vaccinated is niave I think.

Looking at the I refuse to test my kids thread,I am not convinced daily tests would be welcomed.

They might be if it stops isolation

I haven’t read it but some don’t test as they don’t want to trigger isolation

Off to read thread.,,

@Piggywaspushed

Looking at the I refuse to test my kids thread,I am not convinced daily tests would be welcomed.

Well those ones can stay home then! I think most parents will test rather than keep their child in for 10 days. The anti-vac, anti- test, anti-mask lot are always the noisiest online

Firefliss why can’t schools do another option, just child isolates if positive. They’ll get it once then back.

the rate at which we're allowing Covid to spread through schools currently isn't all that fast

No, and this is the problem, the government have decided that spread among children is acceptable, indeed inevitable, so given that decision, there is no point slowing down with the disruption.

We need to either LOCKDOWN to stop testing healthy individuals.

er OR

Once we’re vaccinated just children with symptoms get tested, stay home once. Others get it asymptomatically then it’s done. What other way is there? And what’s the point in letting children get it slowly one by one with disruption.

@MarshaBradyo

Firefliss why can’t schools do another option, just child isolates if positive. They’ll get it once then back.

Indeed. Has any data ever been collected on how many "isolators" went on to be positive? I can't remember if they even needed testing, if not, we will never know.

Daily LFTs as an alternative to isolation was suggested by the government last winter.
It would not lead to less disruption because the tests are so poor at picking up positives.

BigWoolly

Yes they have to do PCR. Ds isolating now class, they test negative but have to stay inside for ten days. It’s awful and disproportionate.

Back in mid May half of the 16-25 age group already had covid antibodies as did 60% of the 25-34 age group. Those figures will have increased by now as we have vaccinated many over 30s and young people have been transmitting the virus merrily. We are now going to vaccinate every over 18 who comes forward. They have been queuing up at pop up clinics so plenty do want to come forward. This may be a more transmissable virus but in a few weeks it will be trying to transmit to people who have had two doses of AZ or at least a dose of Pfizer - pretty effective even 2 weeks after the first dose.

It will also have run through a lot of children, whether they have tested positive for it or not.

Cant see lockdown happening and if we get enough adults vaccinated it's not going to be able to spread further in children, Israel has demonstrated that. So unless there is a vaccine evading variant another lockdown isnt going to happen. It will be school holidays in another month anyway.

Indeed. Has any data ever been collected on how many "isolators" went on to be positive? I can't remember if they even needed testing, if not, we will never know.

Isolators who were 'just' close contacts have not had to test at all until very recently (this means that outbreaks in schools were frequently underestimated in size, as if children were already isolating they were almost never tested, even if they showed symptoms). It seems as if, particularly in surge areas, those isolating are now being asked to take PCR tests.

So, I just popped this on the vaccine thread. The list for vaccination options presented for DD had in the main, options in Hounslow and Hillingdon and Reading, miles away from us. None near to us at all. DH suggests this is due to the fact that most doses have been sent there, in surge areas, rather than here, where we have few cases. What do we think?

Are you in an area where the vaccination has been done by a local GP-led centre? Ours is like this, so all 'national centres' are MILES away. Luckily, despite some fluctuations in supply, the local centre has in the main run slightly ahead of the national centres, though i think when it went down to 40+ a lot of people had to drive 25+ miles if they wanted an appointment in the first week, though the local centre soon caught up. DD (just left school) has her vaccination next week,

Israel has demonstrated that

Israel has not demonstrated this - they did not test everyone to find out if they had it or not.

Rates are quite low where I am currently, but DSS managed to book himself in today for next Monday. So I don't think all the supplies have been sent to surge areas. Might be worth trying the site again in a day or two - they've opened it up a lot in the last few days. You'd hope supply would catch up soon

There is data collected by test and trace on how many contacts (outside schools) go on to test positive. It's around 10% from recollection. I don't think that includes schools though as contact tracing in schools is handled by schools themselves not test and trace. I've not seen any data on the proportion of schools contacts testing positive.

@cantkeepawayforever

Are you in an area where the vaccination has been done by a local GP-led centre? Ours is like this, so all 'national centres' are MILES away. Luckily, despite some fluctuations in supply, the local centre has in the main run slightly ahead of the national centres, though i think when it went down to 40+ a lot of people had to drive 25+ miles if they wanted an appointment in the first week, though the local centre soon caught up. DD (just left school) has her vaccination next week,

We have both NHS contracted pharmacies and GP led sites where we are. DH went NHS, I went GP, and my invitation came about a week after the NHS opened up for our age group. So, yes. I think we will wait for the GP's to contact us.