Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Thanks for those age graphs @boys3 so clear to see the vaccine impact as you look through the age groups

Seems very odd they're saying no to children when the data clearly shows this is the group it's spreading fastest in?

This has changed post May 17th re-opening. The group with the highest level of Covid prevalence is 20-24 year olds (229.6/100,000 for England based on the latest dashboard).

I do think there will be more hesitancy from teenagers. I’m not nearly as enthusiastic about my kids having it as I was me having it and I can’t come up with a rational explanation for that.
But I absolutely believe they should be given the option if we have enough of the stuff available. Which we should. Not necessarily immediately.

I genuinely don't think there will be. I think the hesitancy might come form some parents. I work with teenagers who are all keen to be jabbed afaik. As I have said before on this thread, any school immunisation programmes has very high uptake. I'd be astonished if this was much different.

@borntobequiet

If children are not offered the jab, I predict massive school walkouts from teenagers.

I'll be most interested to see teaching unions' responses tbh. Despite what the DM and the gov would have us all believe they have been wet blankets throughout.

@Piggywaspushed

I genuinely don't think there will be. I think the hesitancy might come form some parents. I work with teenagers who are all keen to be jabbed afaik. As I have said before on this thread, any school immunisation programmes has very high uptake. I'd be astonished if this was much different.

Good- Hope you’re right However, unless take up in older groups gets exceptionally high, surely we can’t get to herd immunity without teenagers getting it

Meanwhile, on the government case map, interesting to see Merthyr and Caerphilly pretty much the only places still yellow. They had a LOT of cases in the autumn. Surely that’s not a coincidence. Still not seeing such a link with places like Leicester and Bolton (much, yet)

@Piggywaspushed

I genuinely don't think there will be. I think the hesitancy might come form some parents. I work with teenagers who are all keen to be jabbed afaik. As I have said before on this thread, any school immunisation programmes has very high uptake. I'd be astonished if this was much different.

I agree. My under 18s are very vocal on the unfairness that they aren't allowed to have it, and apparently their friends are the same. That includes my needle phobic 17yo, who was in tears just being in the car waiting for her sister to come out from having the jab-if they'd said they would do her then, then she would have been in straight away.

They very much see it as the way back to normality.

I'd like to see them trying to give the school children the injections in July, and then the second dose in September.

My fear with the 12-17s is that the issue is actually a lack of (non-AZ) supply, as most of it will be needed for second doses, assuming uptake in the 20 somethings is as follows. Projections on Twitter by people tracking what info the is on supply support this view. But I fear that the government will try to avoid admitting to supply issues so claim that the "evidence on benefits is unclear", which will mean that when they do finally procure more supplies, they'll be more hesitancy as they'll have fuelled it.

I personally think it's outrageous to expect kids to go on having their lives and education thrown into chaos every time they're a contact of someone with the virus and not even allow them to get a licensed vaccine. Particularly the 16-17 year olds who are being treated as children even though many are in workplaces. DD (17) applied for a job as a ward assistant at a hospital. If they give it her, she'll then be eligible as a health worker, but they'd either have to wait 6-14 weeks for her to get double dosed, or let her be a risk to vulnerable patients. The messaging is awful too - 16-19 year olds mix a lot socially. 18+ told how very important it is for them to get vaccinated. 17 year olds told, no none for you. You don't matter.

Yes will be interesting to see the reactions of teens and teachers. I can't see much support for enforcing isolation of contacts, or twice weekly testing (or even PCR testing for mild symptoms) if teens and their parents feel they're being expected to ensure this indefinitely while the rest of society gets their lives back via vaccination.

Agree- however wasn’t the Pfizer order increased from 40m to 100m. Not sure when they will arrive but better late (autumn?) than never.

Whats the current thinking on J&J? There were concerns over clotting issues similar to AZ that made it potentially unusable for younger people. Is this still being researched?

A single jab would be ideal for using in schools..!

Bordois I suspect J&J will mainly be given away. I don't see how we can give it to youngsters and not AZ. And are we still due to get some in July? I know the EU supply has been slashed and if our supplies come from EU they will probably not be allowed to export.

I think supply is what is slowing down the decision and also some of the heart problems that have arisen in the US. I think they are waiting and watching knowing that they would be unable to give out the doses for a while.

We are still have a lot to vaccinate before we are done. The situation may look a lot better then and we may have pretty good heard immunity. Look at Israel - they have more children so a reasonably large percentage of the population unvaccinated and they seem to have pretty good immunity.

(I actually do think we will vaccinate 12 and over but think it will be done August - maybe even started in Sept when they are back at school).

J&J also hasn't been approved for young people, only Pfizer has done research and it's been approved in many other countries.

www.channel4.com/news/hospitals-told-to-brace-for-double-wave-of-covid-and-child-infections?fbclid=IwAR0Yk5SXnLj-P6Xo_kGjNl5HT_KdpUd5F9G110y-A1QCy5DQEgtidj1DxzM

• leaked NHS email indicates cases expected to be at half first peak by early August, plus increase in infant respiratory virus cases due to non-exposure.

re:teen vaccination
My needle phobic 15.5yr old is over the moon that he will be vaxed in a week and a half. He will be back in school in sept with full vax + more than 21 days after 2nd dose.

He had to go in last week for exams and although he is not an anxious type, he came home saying how bad he felt with everyone crowding without masks and if he can't get vaxed he refuses to go back in sept. We didn't know he'll get an appointment at that time.
And his group of friends think similarly, just are pushed into school by parents regardless* and one was wearing a mask voluntarily all day/everywhere.

*which on one hand I understand. I don't think kids will walk out en masse, as they are trained to obey authority of school/parents. But many would like to

@JanFebAnyMonth

www.channel4.com/news/hospitals-told-to-brace-for-double-wave-of-covid-and-child-infections?fbclid=IwAR0Yk5SXnLj-P6Xo_kGjNl5HT_KdpUd5F9G110y-A1QCy5DQEgtidj1DxzM

• leaked NHS email indicates cases expected to be at half first peak by early August, plus increase in infant respiratory virus cases due to non-exposure.

I hope the "it's over" crowd are happy.

Concerns were raised numerous times about the effect of lockdown on the very young in relation to how it would affect their immune systems if they weren't about to mix with others.

The reason for JCVI not immediately approving Pfizer for 12-15 year olds is potential risk of myocarditis. CDC in the US is currently reviewing the data.

There is a hypothesis expressed by a few US medical professionals that the risk can be minimised by increasing the time interval between the two doses. This might explain why UK has not seen as many cases (in relative terms) as either US or Israel.

JCVI probably believes that the potential risk is a good enough reason not to rush with vaccinating younger age groups (since the supply in any case is limited) and wait for more data.

@Bordois

Concerns were raised numerous times about the effect of lockdown on the very young in relation to how it would affect their immune systems if they weren't about to mix with others.

This was always a big concern of mine.

I know how tough a time my youngest had with his developing immune system. Never seriously ill but fever at least once a week and many courses of antibiotics.

These poor kids have a long road in front of them.

Cases to be half first wave peak. Given that accurate numbers aren't known from back then (confirmed cases were about 6k at the time) then what metric are they using?

Well dd has asthma and has flu jab each year but has said this morning she doesn't want the vaccine if it's not approved for all teenagers on safety grounds , and before she was v keen. Slightly worried me as she does get everything badly (eg had complications with chicken pox), but I'm certainly not going to put pressure on her. Let's hope we get some reassuring safety data soon so that schools can become a bit more stable.

It’s odd here Ds 16 was invited (mild asthma) then it was withdrawn before we could get an appointment

I followed up with GP but they could tell me anything really

Given that accurate numbers aren't known from back then (confirmed cases were about 6k at the time) then what metric are they using?

Since it is the NHS document, I assume they are talking about hospital admissions.

The wave 1 peak for England was around 3,000 admissions per day (I am not quoting UK numbers because they are not fully comparable). 50% of that gives us 1,500 hospitalisations per day which I believe is consistent with some of the SAGE scenarios. In fact, this number would imply relatively optimistic modelling.

If they are using the SAGE scenarios as the basis of their estimate then they would be consistent.

However if the SAGE scenarios are as inaccurate as some have indicated then the figures in this email may also be inaccurate.

I heard something re numbers being out this morning. Expected to be 7000 in hospital now due to May lifting but around 1000

On R4, did anyone hear this is this generally known

I've seen a few articles saying that PHE released revised figures that had us in a better position, but that the graphs used at the press conference were based on old figures that were way out of date and used assumptions now known to be incorrect.