Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

So on the BBC today I read Robert Cuffe stating that

Previous analyses from the ONS have suggested that about half of people show symptoms within five weeks of testing positive for the first time.

This is quite different to my understanding of things - I knew that ONS reported 53% of people who tested +ve reporting no symptoms at the time of the test, but I've never seen this 5 week period referred to before.

Can anyone shed any light on this?

@JanFebAnyMonth

www.channel4.com/news/hospitals-told-to-brace-for-double-wave-of-covid-and-child-infections?fbclid=IwAR0Yk5SXnLj-P6Xo_kGjNl5HT_KdpUd5F9G110y-A1QCy5DQEgtidj1DxzM

• leaked NHS email indicates cases expected to be at half first peak by early August, plus increase in infant respiratory virus cases due to non-exposure.

surely though @NannyAndJohn this is actually why we do need to actually start living with it.

In there it is saying to expect hospitialisations of around 50% of the numbers of the first peak with patients being younger and less sick. More vaccinations in the younger the less that would be.

The scary part there is an increase in the RSV virus for infants due to lack of exposure to other viruses due to lockdown:

At the same time as COVID, we are predicting a national wave of RSV infections in children, which will likely lead to more admissions, (non-invasive ventilation) and intubation among very young children.

@mrex

impatience got the better of me; whilst these relate to the NHS published last Thursday they give us a compare and contrast opportunity with whatever comes out this afternoon.

One file for first dose and one for 2nd dose. Shows for each age band, and for all over 30s, and for all over 16s take up % for each region based on NIMMS population and ONS population. The latter takes several age bands over the 100% take up.

The third show the max, min and median figures using NIMMS and ONS as applied to all English council areas. A lot of increasingly silly numbers in that.

Aaaargh. Why do we not have the remotest idea how many people live in this country? Free society is all fine and well, but the margin of error is huge.

@MRex

Aaaargh. Why do we not have the remotest idea how many people live in this country? Free society is all fine and well, but the margin of error is huge.

@MRex; sorry you appear to be suggesting a fairly radical move to evidence based policy making. Not sure that is going to catch on

I've looked up the census reporting, the first days isn't due until February 2022, they're doing a range of error checking up until September.

Surely they have a DBA who could be bribed to run off a quick count of number per age per MSOA? Then add 1m tops for homeless and undocumented migrants, age distributed 10-70, done.

I do wonder to what extent covid has made it all even less accurate than normal with more UK residents returning and overseas residents leaving. The "over 100% jabbed" in their 70s; from just my friends' circle I can add one MIL from France and 2 pairs of parents returned from Spain - all permanently resident overseas, only here because of the pandemic and expected to go back overseas (well, the MIL went back last week anyway).

I think they have to do quite a bit of work with the census data to remove double-counted people, and then they add on some estimates for missing people (based on the numbers in each age group they knew were here 10 years ago having allowed for deaths and immigration/emigration) Very frustrating that it takes so long, but don't think there's much anyone can do about it, and don't think government will have any more insight into it than anyone else as yet.

Who gets double counted and why? It's supposed to be about staying overnight on 21st March. I'm envisaging a range of reprobates living secret double lives, being arrested while sleeping at 2am so they have half the night in two locations etc.

@MRex

Who gets double counted and why? It's supposed to be about staying overnight on 21st March. I'm envisaging a range of reprobates living secret double lives, being arrested while sleeping at 2am so they have half the night in two locations etc.

Visitors staying overnight on 21 March who have a home address elsewhere in the UK will be counted at their home address and not where they're staying, but visitors who don't have a permanent home address (more common than you might think with young men in particular) are counted at the address they're visiting - so they have to disentangle all that. Complex rules about where people staying in institutions (hospital, care homes, prison, etc) are counted. Also children with separated parents are sometimes claimed as permanent residents by both parents and need to be counted once only. They do make some efforts to count up homeless people not in any house, and yes there are people who were genuinely in more than one place during the course of the night (but probably not all that many)

Ah, that all makes sense. Slightly less interesting than my double life reprobates though.

11,007 cases, ouch!

• re census, personal anicdota..

On our road we have four illegal hmo. Each one had a revolving ever changing no of guests, paying ll daily or weekly or not at all
Small terraced housing with at one count 20 people in it and a similar pattern on the other houses on the road. When the census came around that year, how many people in those houses, most with no English, bothered to open up some random letter and dutifully sign it.

I estimate an absolute huge hidden population in many areas, people mistrust full of signing up to tings and keeping under the radar...

They need mobile vaccine units, loud speakers different languages written on them to include these people... Vaccine given no details taken.

@Firefliess

11,007 cases, ouch!

Massive increase in testing though!

Massive increase in testing though!

It's interesting that the massive ramp up in testing has not happened in any other country or region as they reach high vaccination rates like the UK, If the policy is "let's accept transmission and infect the kids" as it surely as, as we're not placing any restrictions in place to prevent the transmission. Then what is the point of all this testing, it's just there to guarantee other countries won't let us visit? To simplify the "why can't people go on holiday controversies?"

Just to reassure people, the RSV wave is not additional children catching RSV, but a shift in the entire yearly cycle from winter ‘20/21 to summer ‘21.

I will look up a brilliant article I read recently about the displacement of a whole series of respiratory virus patterns during the pandemic.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03519-3

Anyone who follows Alastair Munro on twitter will know the only thing that didn’t stop was the Rhinos 🦏 🦏🦏🦏

@ICanSmellSummerComing we got 2 notices for the census due to a house name change at some point before we moved in. We submitted ours for our current address, but had not one but two door to door follow ups for the old name before we / they worked out what was going on. I'm assuming that means there is a general program of following up with door to door visits when a return isn't submitted, although whether people in an HMO would open the door is another question...

We had someone call round at PIL holiday flat when we were there; we'd literally just arrived and sent the code to FIL. It seemed a bit prompt to be honest, there was a bit of time when people couldn't legally travel to get the bit of paper to say "nobody there".

They definitely follow up. We received a knock on the door from a census official as they were trying to get hold of our neighbours who hadn’t completed their census return.

Crabby, there was absolutely no way the census before that was able to track this huge highly mobile population often sharing beds on revolving shifts

The way cases are reported and how the numbers are used has always been flawed imo. Firstly we were only testing people when they were ill enough for hospital, then it was PCR tests if you had certain symptoms, then LF tests. Then we have situations where low numbers of tests are being taken, so the number of cases are low and then all of a sudden the tests jump up and so do the cases.

Dashboard should display positivity rate too imo 11k out of 1.1milion is slightly lower than 9k out of 770k.

On testing I was wondering what the situation is like in other countries - are schools etc. doing regular testing to find asymptomatic people? I know in England we’ve had the LFT for general public recommended to test twice per week too (although uptake likely quite low), does anyone know if that’s similar in other countries such as France/Germany/US that are now reporting lower cases than they have for a while? Presumably now they’ve also vaccinated more of their high risk populations more of the cases will be more likely to be asymptomatic/presymptomatic

Er no one else is lucky enough to have an Operation Moonshot....

@Bordois

The way cases are reported and how the numbers are used has always been flawed imo. Firstly we were only testing people when they were ill enough for hospital, then it was PCR tests if you had certain symptoms, then LF tests. Then we have situations where low numbers of tests are being taken, so the number of cases are low and then all of a sudden the tests jump up and so do the cases.

Dashboard should display positivity rate too imo 11k out of 1.1milion is slightly lower than 9k out of 770k.

There are positivity charts, but just for England: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=nation%26areaName=England#card-weekly_number_of_people_receiving_a_pcr_test_and_positivity

Weekly poisitivity graphs for pillar 2 testing.