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Data, Stats Thread June 11

986 replies

PatriciaHolm · 11/06/2021 15:05

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

OP posts:
Thread gallery
125
alreadytaken · 16/06/2021 18:15

London has a considerably younger population than the rest of the country so it is to be expected that their vaccination rate will be lower. However the places that have been running walk in vaccinations and interpreting government rules generously have had queues of young people attending. Now that vaccination is being extended to younger age groups it will go up pretty rapidly.

Bordois · 16/06/2021 18:48

@Sunshinegirl82

Anecdata but my area is further ahead in terms of vaccination rates 65%/82% and although case numbers are creeping up we have had 0 deaths and 0 hospitalisations in the last 7 days so it does seem as though the vaccinations are having a real impact.
Data are looking good for my area too

My local authority is 76.7 / 54.1 on the vaccinated front. Cases have been in single digits for weeks now and there are 11 people in hospital (1 on ventilation) across the whole hospital trust my area is in (3 large hospitals serving 3 local authorities).

Piggywaspushed · 16/06/2021 19:14

We are having our mobile testing units in school today and tomorrow. Huge admin workload for school! So much for the army...

I shall report back what it throws up.

boys3 · 16/06/2021 19:56

what it throws up

Let’s hope not too much - in either sense of the phrase; assuming throat and nasal swabs being used

Frazzled2207 · 16/06/2021 20:09

@Piggywaspushed

We are having our mobile testing units in school today and tomorrow. Huge admin workload for school! So much for the army...

I shall report back what it throws up.

is this just your school, your area or a new thing nationally? Major outbreak in our local high school, in one of the new guidance areas, but not aware of any testing other than the usual LFTs
Piggywaspushed · 16/06/2021 20:12

Just my school.

It's an alternative to closing really. If they find more than the 30 cases found already they'll close the year group and if they find more in the other year groups possibly the school.

Frazzled2207 · 16/06/2021 21:46

oh dear. Hopefully it's not spread any further than already thought.

boys3 · 16/06/2021 22:10

London has a considerably younger population than the rest of the country so it is to be expected that their vaccination rate will be lower.

Median age in London 35.6 higher than all the following:

Oxford 28.9
Nottingham 29.7
Manchester 30.1
Cambridge 30.3
Leicester 31.6
Coventry 32.1
Southampton 32.3
Bristol, City of 32.4
Birmingham 32.6
Lincoln 33.4
Norwich 33.5
Exeter 33.6
Portsmouth 34.1
Luton 34.6
Salford 34.8
Liverpool 34.8
Reading 34.8
Slough 35.0
Leeds 35.3
Preston 35.3
Brighton and Hove 35.3
Sheffield 35.4

Is that a fair comparison? Possibly not; given London - global metropolis - has a population at least 1.5million higher than the combined total of all the places listed above.

Treating London as a region it clearly has the lowest median age; next nearest:

WEST MIDLANDS 39.6
YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER 40.1
NORTH WEST 40.3
EAST MIDLANDS 41.4
EAST 41.7
SOUTH EAST 41.7
NORTH EAST 41.8
SOUTH WEST 44.1

and if more balanced again a number of individual London Boroughs would appear in the youngest council areas list:

Tower Hamlets 31.6
Islington 31.9
Newham 32.3
Barking and Dagenham 32.5
Hackney 33.3
Lambeth 33.3
Southwark 33.6
Camden 34.0
Wandsworth 34.0
Hammersmith and Fulham 35.0
Greenwich 35.0
Lewisham 35.2
Waltham Forest 35.2

The oldest borough Richmond at 41.1 median age is still young as compared with the 190 council areas in England with a higher median age.

Given the demographic variability overall population take up by area is a bit meaningless, and London with a young demographic will, as we are not yet fully through, always look less than stellar. Compounded further as uptake is calculated on NIMMS population estimates , which for London is around 1.5 million higher than the ONS estimate.

London's latest rates are not that different from the larger cities (ok they are still hugely smaller than London) in that youngest areas list.

London 57.4% first dose; 40.9% second dose.

As compared with

Brum 57.3% and 36.6% (so London better)

Manchester 55.6% and 33.2% (London again better)

Liverpool 60.4% and 44.1% (so London around 3 pts behind on both)

Leeds 65.9% and 47.3% (so London a fair bit behind)

Taking our oldest council area North Norfolk, median age 54.3

83.6% first dose and 69.2% second dose (completely different planet)

The purist might also quibble that the median age is based on full population whereas vaccinations, bar group 6's 16 & 17 yr olds, are 18 and over. So a median based on vaccine eligible population would be more accurate.

MRex · 16/06/2021 23:00

NIMS is used at local authority level. NIMS puts the England 16-64 population as 39.5m people, but that age group is about 63%, so that suggests NIMS is giving an estimated population of 62.7m, whereas generally accepted population is 54m. That's 14% extra on top of the actual population. Some additional immigrants - sure. 8.7m????? Nope. Now, transient population will particularly affect cities and even more particularly affect London. And NIMS figure usage will definitely affect low level vaccination percentages.

What happens when GPs admit they've been claiming for all these people who aren't here?

amicissimma · 16/06/2021 23:13

I suppose we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

I don't think I've quite recovered from watching the purple and dark purple on the map spread from North Kent across London and then out into the rest of the country in January. It's spooked me seeing London's colours going darker again.

MRex · 16/06/2021 23:17

Ok, decided not to be lazy and looked up NIMS population in the spreadsheet. England only: 61,757,508; over 16 is 50,629,262.
ONS is 56,286,961 and over 16s 45,470,282.

The higher population for ONS surprises me, but anyway, still about 5m or 9% extra.

boys3 · 16/06/2021 23:20

@MRex

NIMS is used at local authority level. NIMS puts the England 16-64 population as 39.5m people, but that age group is about 63%, so that suggests NIMS is giving an estimated population of 62.7m, whereas generally accepted population is 54m. That's 14% extra on top of the actual population. Some additional immigrants - sure. 8.7m????? Nope. Now, transient population will particularly affect cities and even more particularly affect London. And NIMS figure usage will definitely affect low level vaccination percentages.

What happens when GPs admit they've been claiming for all these people who aren't here?

Indeed.

NIMS total pop last week was around 5 million higher than the ONS figure - the latter is of course the 2019 mid year estimate published last June, so mid year 2020 estimate due out within the next two weeks.

These graphs show the comparative numbers by age band; and the second one the % difference

NIMMS is used for everything bar the national (England) figure - which of course results in the bizarre situation that the take up rates, both 1st and 2nd dose in every region is lower than the overall national figures shown.

Data, Stats Thread June 11
Data, Stats Thread June 11
MRex · 16/06/2021 23:23

@boys3 - I like the charts! Have you ever compared regional ONS/NIMS percentage by age to take-up percentage by age?

boys3 · 16/06/2021 23:26

The position in England case wise was almost identical at the beginning of the final week of May as it was in early September last year.

As such taking 24th May and 4th September as our Day 0, this tracks how cases; deaths; admissions; hospitalised developed from early September through to end of October (just ahead of the November lockdown); and from 24th Sep to date.

Whilst the 7 day rate for cases we have now is slightly ahead; all teh other metrics are below the growth seen last September and then through on into October.

The date for "now" by perfect judgement Grin will end at the new date for stage 4 of the England roadmap.

Data, Stats Thread June 11
boys3 · 16/06/2021 23:29

Then on the same basis as the metric graphs these do the same but compare case rates per 100,000 for each group. I did these before today's data was published.

I've started with the oldest age groups. Blue line reflects last September and orange the position from last week of May.

Data, Stats Thread June 11
Data, Stats Thread June 11
boys3 · 16/06/2021 23:30

then all the remaining age groups

Data, Stats Thread June 11
Data, Stats Thread June 11
Data, Stats Thread June 11
boys3 · 16/06/2021 23:35

[quote MRex]@boys3 - I like the charts! Have you ever compared regional ONS/NIMS percentage by age to take-up percentage by age?[/quote]
indeed I have; moves London from abject to merely disappointing

at the LA level a fair number pass the 100% take up in certain age bands, which I'm pretty sure is not actually possible. :)

I'll put them (regional) up tomorrow after the weekly NHS file comes out (only as I'm inherently lazy) and the data file is very easy to manipulate.

boys3 · 16/06/2021 23:40

although for really extreme results MSOA level using NIMMS and then ONS is the one.

MRex · 17/06/2021 05:49

Thanks @boys3, I'll look forward to seeing what disappointing looks like Smile.

I wouldn't like to think about the current wave without jabs, the age group profile is startling.

Whatever9999 · 17/06/2021 05:50

@Sunshinegirl82

Anecdata but my area is further ahead in terms of vaccination rates 65%/82% and although case numbers are creeping up we have had 0 deaths and 0 hospitalisations in the last 7 days so it does seem as though the vaccinations are having a real impact.
Similar picture here. 81.4/66.7 2 people in hospital trust (covers 2 hospitals over 2 counties), none on ventilation. At the lowest level we've been 0-2 for over a month, LA level numbers have crept up a little (.but way below.national average). We seem to have had a large number of deaths added yesterday (9), but that may have been because of the reorganisation. Before we were at very low levels for a very long time , and some are to be expected as we have a high percentage of elderly people in the district.
olivethegreat · 17/06/2021 06:49

Had anyone seen what time the jCVI statement about children being vaccinated will be made today ?

I'm wondering if children who get the flu jab might be offered it ? (And then what to do!) . Seems very odd they're saying no to children when the data clearly shows this is the group it's spreading fastest in?

borntobequiet · 17/06/2021 07:22

If children are not offered the jab, I predict massive school walkouts from teenagers.

MRex · 17/06/2021 07:31

I don't understand them not at least doing the 15-17yo, it doesn't need to be pushed - just offered to those wanting it.

MRex · 17/06/2021 07:36

If it's MHRA approved, does than mean doctors can decide for individual vulnerable kids if they can get it, or would JCVI need to specify conditions?

sirfredfredgeorge · 17/06/2021 08:09

If it's MHRA approved, does than mean doctors can decide for individual vulnerable kids if they can get it, or would JCVI need to specify conditions?

I don't believe so, I believe it has to be in line with the emergency approval.

I cannot understand what evidence the UK don't have, that so many other health authorities do for over 12 approval though.