Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Do you guys know what the latest consensus is on how long after infection will a person show signs?

I was also exclusive bf when dd 9 months caught it, at first doc said smugly, yes it's cp but mild, clever mum is bf.

The next day her temp soared incredibly high even dh said call an ambulance!
She was v poorly and only had a few spots but they were v v deep. Still scared today.
Older sibling was covered at age 3 but was barely affected.

@TheSunIsStillShining

Do you guys know what the latest consensus is on how long after infection will a person show signs?

Chickenpox 10-21 days, usually 14-16 days. Covid 2-14 days (I don't trust outlier timeframes as there have only been a very few), almost everyone I've known catch it 3-5 days.

I think my daughter caught it (chickenpox) in less time than 10 days as far as we know, just a few days from a classmate going off with it to her getting infected.

NHS says 7-21 days

@MRex
covid is the interesting one, we all had CP :)
Thank you! It looks like no change.

Our kid has an x-th sense. We were booked into a fertility clinic after miscarriages and trying for 2+years. 2 days before the appointment I tested positive.

We decided to give him the CP vax if he doesn't catch it in kindergarten, by age 7. He caught it in the last month :)

We are due to go back to H. in a week or so (no fixed date yet) to get him vaccinated. Hope he doesn't continue the above trend with this!!

I've been looking at various hospitalisation rate graphs on Twitter. Do people think that the rate of increase of hospitalisations is slowing or is it too early to tell yet?

@EducatingArti

I've been looking at various hospitalisation rate graphs on Twitter. Do people think that the rate of increase of hospitalisations is slowing or is it too early to tell yet?

Hard to say really because the numbers are quite low overall and tend to jump up and down a bit. Cases seem to be growing at a slower rate though over the last 4-5 days, which is encouraging

East London vaccination booking 19 June in the London Stadium, Queen Elizabeth Park, Stratford

www.eastlondonhcp.nhs.uk/ourplans/covid-19-vaccination-event-at-the-london-stadium-in-the-olympic-park.htm

I was reading a thread that Hugo has shared.

Germany and Frances cases are going down, they are having less cases than the UK currently.

However,

1. They are having more deaths than the UK
2. They have more critica people in hospitals than the UK
3. UK keeps having similar amount of deaths and hospitalisations a month ago, when the variant was discovered /announced
4. The amount of tests done in France + Germany = UK

Are we sure the uk is the only place where the numbers are going up? Are we sure we should keep checking only the incidence of cases and not the rest?

twitter.com/Thomasgordon01/status/1405124308108722179/photo/1

[quote EasterIssland]I was reading a thread that Hugo has shared.

Germany and Frances cases are going down, they are having less cases than the UK currently.

However,

1. They are having more deaths than the UK
2. They have more critica people in hospitals than the UK
3. UK keeps having similar amount of deaths and hospitalisations a month ago, when the variant was discovered /announced
4. The amount of tests done in France + Germany = UK

Are we sure the uk is the only place where the numbers are going up? Are we sure we should keep checking only the incidence of cases and not the rest?

twitter.com/Thomasgordon01/status/1405124308108722179/photo/1[/quote]
Germany and France are behind the UK in terms of vaccinations (both in terms of overall figures and proportion of the most vulnerable vaccinated), so you'd expect hospitalisations and deaths to be higher as a proportion of cases

Germany yesterday 3k cases, deaths 100

The last time the uk had 3k was beginning of April, deaths 20-50

2 months ago the uk should have been similar in terms of vaccination to the current ones in Germany now (35m 1st and 15m second, in fact looking into it n April it was lower than those numbers)

The issue for Germany / France is the exact same for UK a couple of months ago.

Cases are going down but Delta variant is slowly growing. I think France estimate 2-4 % at the moment but I don't know how much genomic sequencing they do. I think Spain is beginning to creep up?

We have been helped by vaccinations but the Delta variant has certainly hit us before we had enough people vaccinated.

It depends on when it really hits other European countries as I think they are a few weeks behind us in vaccinations? I imagine Germany has less natural immunity to Delta variant than UK (due to fewer Covid cases overall) and France perhaps a similar level or maybe even a little higher?

while cases are high today this is good from Covid fact check

The UK growth rate (not infection rate) has slowed for seven consecutive days.
Today’s seven-day average is up 31.8% on last week. Here’s how it’s fallen:

Wednesday: 66.0%
Thursday: 63.1%
Friday: 58.1%
Saturday: 52.4%
Sunday: 49.3%
Monday: 45.5%
Tuesday: 38.8%
Wednesday: 31.8%

On the other hand we are keeping with the appr. 11 day doubling of cases.
I think at this point it is really wait and see, it could go both ways.

The other good piece of news is that early hot spots might have already peaked (without lockdowns/NPIs but with targeted vaccination efforts). We knew this about Bolton but I was sort of worried about Blackburn that has got lower levels of vaccination. However, it has also started to move in the right direction.

Another observation from today's numbers is that areas with higher levels of vaccination (e.g. Stockport) or acquired immunity from the second wave (Bedford) might be peaking at a lower level. However, some sort of exit wave seems unavoidable so cases (and, unfortunately, hospitalisations) are very likely to go up before they go down.

I find it ever so slightly worrying that the phrase "exit wave" is used all the time. It's setting an expectation that might not become reality in a way that many understand it: back to as if this never happened.

I would hope that we learn from this and eg ppl use masks with serious colds/flus, proper ventilation in public buildings, etc... but with locking in the mindset of "it's over, let's not even think about it" none of these will ever happen. And if there's a mutation or a strong flu season we will be caught off guard more than need be.

@TheSunIsStillShining

On the other hand we are keeping with the appr. 11 day doubling of cases. I think at this point it is really wait and see, it could go both ways.

Are we though? 11 days ago the cases were 5,765 and today they are 9,055. They've not risen by much day on day over the last week either. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next week.

I don't think "exit wave" necessarily means final wave. Just the wave that we expect to see as we come out of controlling Covid with lockdown measures. Hopefully future outbreaks will be smaller and more localised

@TheSunIsStillShining

On the other hand we are keeping with the appr. 11 day doubling of cases. I think at this point it is really wait and see, it could go both ways.

no, apparently we're up to 17 according to OIiver Johnson on twitter

twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1405180159955816448/photo/1

Just a warning to those thinking of getting their child a chicken pox vaccine. It did cause my DS to get a fever after. Not a big deal and calpol totally fixed it but with the current testing requirements it might be better to hold off for a few months if testing/isolation is going to be a nightmare. Obviously less of an issue with older (pre) teens who are testing anyway. But I'm certainly not touting antivax and I'm glad DS had the vaccine.

@wintertravel1980 This can be seen in areas without targeted vaccinations too. I have been quite worried about my area, it hasn't been one of the identified hotspots but our cases had gone up sharply the last few weeks. We haven't had any interventions but case numbers are now going down.

@wintertravel1980

The other good piece of news is that early hot spots might have already peaked (without lockdowns/NPIs but with targeted vaccination efforts). We knew this about Bolton but I was sort of worried about Blackburn that has got lower levels of vaccination. However, it has also started to move in the right direction.

Another observation from today's numbers is that areas with higher levels of vaccination (e.g. Stockport) or acquired immunity from the second wave (Bedford) might be peaking at a lower level. However, some sort of exit wave seems unavoidable so cases (and, unfortunately, hospitalisations) are very likely to go up before they go down.

agree re stockport (live there!). There has been a heck of a lot of vaccinating going on here last 3 weeks or so and we're predominantly white and not that young so that will account for much higher vaccination rates than neighbouring Manchester although I think it's broadly in line with the national average now. North West figs look to be peaking or perhaps peaked last week. Crosses fingers.

I'm watching London somewhat nervously. From the map it looks to be getting darker day by day and vaccination uptake is quite low there, I believe.

Interesting looking at poor Cornwall - purple at St Ives and Falmouth. It's almost as if a load of people descended on the area from outside recently...

Picking up on @wintertravel1980 and @Frazzled2207 ‘s point above Lancashire looks like it may have reached its peak, some variety between the various districts but whilst all are higher than a week ago on a seven day rate, in many cases that may have peaked towards end of last week.

Looking at just the cases with spec dates Monday and yesterday as compared with those reported at this time last week a few GM areas look to have fallen back. It is only a few though.

Conversely Liverpool 190 cases so far this wk vs 105; Wirral 90 vs 42; Halton 59 vs 15; Knowsley 42 vs 19.

With that limited start of week comparison the North West overall has (only just) the lowest growth of any region

Anecdata but my area is further ahead in terms of vaccination rates 65%/82% and although case numbers are creeping up we have had 0 deaths and 0 hospitalisations in the last 7 days so it does seem as though the vaccinations are having a real impact.