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Data, Stats Thread June 11

986 replies

PatriciaHolm · 11/06/2021 15:05

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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125
MarshaBradyo · 15/06/2021 18:28

You’ve reminded me to do same. Ds is 11 and hasn’t had it yet

herecomesthsun · 15/06/2021 18:34

I think part of the situation is that this is a novel agent.

So we have an immunologically naive population which could get infected in large numbers all at once, a serious blow to a society and its economy.

"Microbes have often shaped human history. Thousands of years [ago]... a previous spread of plague may have contributed to the intrusion of Asian steppe peoples carrying Indo-European languages into Europe. Later, far more Native Americans — including the Aztec emperor Cuitláhuac and the Inca emperor Huayna Capac — died in bed from European germs than on the battlefield from European swords and guns."

Jared Diamond writing in the Financial Times. Although he does comment that covid poses a relatively lower risk than some previous epidemics, we are seeing some of the same harmful consequences.

herecomesthsun · 15/06/2021 18:37

@MarshaBradyo

You’ve reminded me to do same. Ds is 11 and hasn’t had it yet
It is money very well spent, both in terms of time off work and school, and having your child involve a rather unpleasant disease; it is rare but possible to have Very Serious Consequences in terms of hospital admission or worse, very occasionally.
Wakeupin2022 · 15/06/2021 18:47

2 children. None vaccinated.

One had had CP and shingles

6 year old has not had chickenpox yet.

I may look into vaccine as I'm sick of it hanging over our heads.

MRex · 15/06/2021 19:02

Chickenpox vaccine was £110 for two doses in London. We didn't fancy DS getting a disease that's easily preventable to protect adults who haven't had chickenpox and can't be bothered to vaccinate for chickenpox (or shingles when elderly).

On the debate about whether all children will eventually catch covid if unvaccinated... I think it really depends where you live. We live in London, so I'd say yes it's inevitable in the course of a few years that DS will come across covid between schools, trains, tubes, indoor play/ restaurants, travel abroad etc etc etc. If we lived in East of England or Cornwall then maybe not. Luckily he still breastfeeds (greedy git won't stop), so we expect any symptoms will be mild or preferably non-existent as he'll have some antibodies. If or when there's a vaccine safe for his age though he'll have it.

On risk, idiot cleaner is high risk personally and exposed but won't be vaccinated. I suppose she's also ultimately a risk to him when we drop masks, though I'm more concerned about her exposure risk. Any ideas welcome on how to ensure she understands nobody cares if she's part of the summer wave, there isn't more lockdown coming to protect her if it starts flooding through the borough. I believe those saying "I'm not ready to be vaccinated yet" may not understand the situation is changing and the vaccine wall won't necessarily help them in particular if they have high exposure, it just reduces the overall numbers infected.

MarshaBradyo · 15/06/2021 19:07

Here yes agree plus concerning he’s pretty old in cp terms now.

I think I just go to Boots? Must get onto it- tomorrow!

MargaretThursday · 15/06/2021 19:15

I got chickenpox as a student and was quite ill, but not as ill as my college nurse's husband who was so ill it caused a smallpox scare about a year after it had been irradiated.

Don't rely on breastfeeding to protect from chickenpox. Dd2 was only 6 months and still fully breastfed when she caught it from Dd1. Dd1 had it mildly. Dd2 only had one spot... It just covered every bit of her. Really she had so many spots they just all ran into the other. She even had them inside her mouth.
She was really ill, for about a fortnight.

Ontopofthesunset · 15/06/2021 19:19

We know plenty of people who have not appeared to have caught Covid despite being exposed to it in household settings. Many of them tested negative on PCR tests; others were merely asymptomatic so may actually have caught Covid but been fine. My adult doctor niece intubated a positive patient without PPE and was negative for antibodies when tested as part of a vaccine trial - this was last year so she has since been vaccinated. I know these are just anecdotes, but they definitely suggest differing degrees of susceptibility and do suggest that even if exposed not everyone will develop Covid.

Horace123 · 15/06/2021 19:24

Hope no one minds a random question from a lurker - the talk about chicken pox has made me think of it. Both my DCs got chicken pox while on holiday in South Africa and were extremely ill - the doctors there made it clear we had to tell all the staff where we were staying that if they were HIV positive and had been in contact with us they must go to a clinic immediately because chicken pox "could finish them off". I always assumed that with the HIV rates in SA (I think they have worst HIV epidemic in the world - in one of the provinces 60% of woman have HIV) covid would hit them much harder than it has (while covid numbers there might not be as accurate as they are here they thankfully haven't had the awful hospital scenes we've seen in India). Does anyone have any suggestions why? There was a news story the other day in SA news about the fact that the covid virus was mutating up to 30 times in individual HIV patients because they took so long to fight it off. It sounded a bit terrifying but I haven't seen anything in the news here about it. It seems a bit strange that even though they are now facing a third wave, HIV didn't seem to make waves 1 and 2 worse than they were.

EasterIssland · 15/06/2021 19:43

You’ve reminded me to get my son vaccinated for it if he doesn’t catch it soon (3.5). Where I’m from a girl died cuz of complications from cp and negligent doctor attention. That’s scared me, I was going to get my son vaccinated but there is always something coming that I keep postponing it

Regulus · 15/06/2021 20:07

Sorry if I've missed it but it is worth mentioning (or reminding if previously mentioned) that the CP vaccination only isn't included in childhood vaccs due to costs. It would cost more to vaccinate children than it does to deal with those that are seriously affected/die from it.

sirfredfredgeorge · 15/06/2021 21:03

Regulus It's not simply due to cost, it's due to higher risk of shingles in patients where there's no shingles vaccine due to lower levels of circulating virus giving them a regular boost. A higher risk of chicken pox in unvaccinated children occurring at an older age where it is considerably higher risk (due to lower overall prevalence it would be later when they'd likely catch it.)

MMRV does cost more than MMR (although I'm not positive we're still using MMR it may be something else in now) but I very much doubt at the extra 50 quid a child that it wouldn't be cost effective given the number of kids who do need some medical care with chicken pox.

cantkeepawayforever · 15/06/2021 21:09

I seem to remember, as well, that the varicella vaccine in use when DS was due to have it (brief sojourn in the US - he has an interesting set of childhood vaccinations, being everything required in both countries), while successful at suppressing symptoms, was significantly less successful at preventing transmission by vaccinated individuals. So a child with the vaccination could be carrying chickenpox asymptomatically and pass it on to other unvaccinated children. As we were returning to the UK, he didn't have that vaccine, as he could very easily have been an asymptomatic carrier for groups of unvaccinated UK friends.

it may be an improved vaccine now.

Frazzled2207 · 15/06/2021 21:21

updated 'tadpole chart'. Looks promising I think, especially for the north west. Hopefully it's not just a case of the government having lost thousands of new cases down the back of the sofa again.

twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1404890696780337153/photo/1

Notmulan · 15/06/2021 23:23

@Frazzled2207 I agree (though I like to see the positive) . It’s either the rate of growth Is slowing , or a lack of testing over half term meant that the climb should’ve been flatter.

Today I saw a post from the public health agency (N.I) encouraging vaccinations. The amount of people who were against it knocked me for six. I wonder how much of the adult population we will eventually vaccinate 85%?

HIVpos · 16/06/2021 00:08

@Horace123

Hope no one minds a random question from a lurker - the talk about chicken pox has made me think of it. Both my DCs got chicken pox while on holiday in South Africa and were extremely ill - the doctors there made it clear we had to tell all the staff where we were staying that if they were HIV positive and had been in contact with us they must go to a clinic immediately because chicken pox "could finish them off". I always assumed that with the HIV rates in SA (I think they have worst HIV epidemic in the world - in one of the provinces 60% of woman have HIV) covid would hit them much harder than it has (while covid numbers there might not be as accurate as they are here they thankfully haven't had the awful hospital scenes we've seen in India). Does anyone have any suggestions why? There was a news story the other day in SA news about the fact that the covid virus was mutating up to 30 times in individual HIV patients because they took so long to fight it off. It sounded a bit terrifying but I haven't seen anything in the news here about it. It seems a bit strange that even though they are now facing a third wave, HIV didn't seem to make waves 1 and 2 worse than they were.
@Horace123 this is how scaremongering stories can start!

From what I can read one S African woman has advanced HIV and following contracting COVID,, failed to clear it from her body for several months due to her impacted immune system. This resulted in many mutations. The result of the research study this article came from has not yet been peer reviewed (also keep in mind that mutations aren’t all bad, in fact some make the virus unable to infect or weaker than it was).

From reading that you are now wondering why people living with HIV in the U.K. aren’t making the situation worse than it is?

Perhaps replace advanced HIV with anyone who has an impacted immune system and might be worse affected by any virus (ie those in the extremely vulnerable group who were advised to isolate). This doesn’t include the vast majority over those in the U.K. with HIV who are on effective medication. Actually a good portion of those in South and East Africa are as well, although of course a lot more work needs to be done there.

Horace123 · 16/06/2021 06:27

@HIVpos I think you have misunderstood my post - apologies if I was not clear.

  1. If I wanted to scaremonger I would post on the approximately one million other threads on this topic. I came to a data thread on the assumption that people who post here are more likely to be in the know. The usual posters here (@MRex, @boys3, @wintertravel1980, @Piggywaspushed etc) are usually happy for random people to ask the odd question and their replies are helpful and polite which is why this is the only covid thread I would dream of posting on.
  1. Yes, it was an article about 1 woman but there were a lot of claims made extrapolating this and I wanted to know if there were any wider peer reviewed studies. There may not have been anything here about it but there has been a lot about it in their local news and it would be helpful for me to reassure my family who live there.
  1. I certainly was making no suggestion about HIV positive people here affecting the position in the UK. In fact on rereading my post I am not sure why you think I am. I am just surprised that a country like SA which a very large population of HIV people (where many are not diagnosed and where for various reasons not everyone gets treatment) has not had a higher death toll. I understand there are other things in their favour like a younger population but if chicken pox is so bad for someone with HIV I would have thought would be bad too.
  1. I do understand that there other conditions which cause immune systems to be impacted but as far as I know that is not something (unlike HIV) which disproportionally affects SA.
traumatisednoodle · 16/06/2021 06:41

My understanding (a medic but not an HIV specialist) is that for most people HIV is now a chronic condition similar to diabetes which does not impact on life expectancy (there will always be exceptions). Anti-retrovirals are cheap, effective and widely availible.

traumatisednoodle · 16/06/2021 06:43

Most people with HIV were vacinated in group 6.

MRex · 16/06/2021 06:55

@Horace123 - South Africa's deaths are underestimated quite drastically. The Economist says that as of 1st May it should be 143,160, a huge 244/100,000: www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker.
A very young population and some luck in the controls have helped enormously. Unfortunately though, a third wave may now be starting across much of Africa including South Africa: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53181555.

13.1% of the South African population have HIV, while that increases their covid-19 risks a bit, it doesn't have as much of an impact as old age in the UK; enough to be prioritised for vaccination, but it isn't a top risk unless there are other factors like diabetes or obesity.

Horace123 · 16/06/2021 08:33

Thanks @MRex, that is helpful. I know the SA numbers are underestimated but I really expected that we'd see their hospitals completely unable to cope as we've seen in India with bodies piling up outside the morgues. Fingers crossed they carry on managing it ok.

@traumatisednoodle - as far as I know HIV people are not being vaccinated early in SA. I think they started with healthcare workers, followed by the over 60s and are about to move on to teachers. But I may be wrong. Obviously really pleased things are better here.

All regular posters - thanks so much for keeping this thread going even when periodically people try and disrupt it. I feel like BEFORE (in that happy time of my life when I didn't know what an R number was and words like "efficacy" and "transmissible" didn't feature in my everyday vocabulary) I was able to separate out news stories that were sensible and those that weren't. So I would ignore the headline "If you LOOK at a Greggs sausage roll your chance of getting cancer increases by 30%, if you actually EAT one the chances increase by 70% and if you eat two MAKE YOUR WILL NOW". But then I ignored the "[Someone in China ate bat soup and now the world will be locked up and the whole global economy is going to crash] [ Chinese scientists design killer virus which is about to be unleashed on the world]" (delete appropriately according to which papers you read) headlines and didn't really take the current situation seriously until Italy was so badly affected. So I use this thread as a way of assessing what / who to listen to. So thank you!

MRex · 16/06/2021 09:22

India also has a very young population, low levels of testing, low levels of general healthcare, the most elderly were generally vaccinated (small number) and allowed multiple superspreader events within a few weeks despite rising cases. The result was a hidden swelling mass of cases that couldn't be readily seen until the percentage who get immensely unwell overran hospitals. As soon as everyone realised it was spreading so much and gatherings were stopped, numbers calmed down. Rather than consider it inevitable, it would therefore in my opinion be fair to place much of the blame on Modi for telling his citizens it was over and encouraging these superspreader events.

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