How will a third wave look?

[Tigerblue]

We could possibility at the start of a third wave. How do others think it'll look? I don't think restrictions will be lifted on 21st June. We still have a way to go with vaccines, but we're doing well so I'm really hoping we've got enough vaccinated to keep numbers much lower than the previous wave and the NHS can cope (especially with a backlog of operations/treatments which surely will have to be prioritised for some of the hospital beds). Also, we can manage to keep everything open - this is more hope on my part.

[quote socialmediamishap]@Thewiseoneincognito
@NannyAndJohn

Just need princess to show up and it's a full house [/quote]
😂

US seems to be a step ahead with normal life and vaccinations

Maybe that’s where we’ll get

@MarshaBradyo

US seems to be a step ahead with normal life and vaccinations

Maybe that’s where we’ll get

I really hope so

@QioiioiioQ

I think it will look like civil unrest👀

More protesting against a virus? Covid isn't listening

@MarshaBradyo

US seems to be a step ahead with normal life and vaccinations

Maybe that’s where we’ll get

They are certainly a step ahead on normal life, but we’re ahead on vaccinations - they have 64% of adults with at least one dose and 53% fully vaccinated. Though perhaps starting sooner on younger people helps to avoid having the spread we have here in teenagers and 20s. I assume they don’t have the delta variant either.

I won't think restrictions will be lifted on 21st June. I think the government will plough on and keep everything open, unless numbers massively increase. Given that it's summer and much easier to mix outside, I do wonder if household mixing might be restricted for a while, either nationwide or in high risk areas. We have a way to go with the vaccines, but they should certainly help keep numbers lower though.

I work in a primary school. We've today stepped up cleaning procedures again, so that's worrying. Unless there's a delay in vaccine supply, it's anticipated here that students will be fully vaccinated before going back to uni. Some areas will we behind, but we shouldn't have a massive rise in numbers due to students moving around.

@GiantToadstool - I don't think anyone said that vaccines would solve everything. Certainly most people said that we're not safe until everyone's safe. And that means the world.

I think the decision on the 21st of June will be very telling. If it’s pushed back with no date then I think we expect it to be quite bad.

I’m pregnant now and not having my second jab until August. I’ll be staying in our bubble. Gutted as was looking to forward to a baby moon etc but I’d rather not risk it now.

@MarshaBradyo I wonder if the Delta variant is as wide spread there yet? That’s what seems to have messed us up this year.

I’m not sure I can summarise well (too much work!) so will just link - this thread is a good indication of whether a country has Delta and what vaccination they have

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4267614-What-is-the-latest-in-other-countries

About 1/8th peak of Wave 1?

I think it will be a smaller wave of cases, possibly closer to the second peak in November time, but crucially with FAR less serious illness, hospitalisation, and death.

I think June 21st is still up for change though, because as we know serious illness/death is not the only risk, there's also the risk of new variants mutating.

But given that we can't contain that risk yet globally anyway, personally don't think there'll be a delay to June 21st plans.

But I'm an optimist.....

@socialmediamishap
😂😂

[quote Girlmama3]@MarshaBradyo I wonder if the Delta variant is as wide spread there yet? That’s what seems to have messed us up this year.[/quote]
This video by Dr Campbell gives a good summary of the current situation with the delta variant in the US and UK
m.youtube.com/watch?v=38NuwkSmv_A

[quote Girlmama3]@MarshaBradyo I wonder if the Delta variant is as wide spread there yet? That’s what seems to have messed us up this year.[/quote]
It's not. They have a very tight and effective border policy.

Fewer hospitalisations and deaths than the previous ones I would be confident about given vaccination and also more people outside.

I agree not all restrictions will end on 21st June.

@AuntieStella

I was wondering if the June step will be delayed until schools break up.

Because of there's only so much risk that we can carry, and schooling is to be prioritised, it might be a bad idea to have further mixing whilst that vector is open. Then we have a largely unrestricted summer (but within UK, no widespread international travel) and see how it all looks in the autumn

I think that would be sensible.

It's like a counter action and our children deserve some resemblance of a normal education where possible. We already know it's ripping through some schools. Not all but those who have cases are saying once it's in it's spreading quickly.

[quote socialmediamishap]**@SonnetForSpring I did nearly include you in the all star line up but you'd written in a pp that you didn't think we'd end up back in full lockdown whereas Nanny thinks we'll be in one for the rest of the year.

Happy to include you going forward :) [/quote]
I don't agree they're all the same. @princessnutnuts has a clear Zero Covid agenda. @NannyAndJohn possibly also. @SonnetForSpring just seems concerned about the situation. It's only @Thewiseoneincognito who I feel is just purely trolling. The tone of their posts is always gleeful as they post again and again about how things will never be ok again. They were wrong back in autumn about the vaccines, saying anyone who thought there'd be one within a year was stupid. When that was proved wrong, they changed tack to how the variants are bound to render the vaccines totally useless. I also believe they have stated somewhere they have no intention of taking the vaccine, so if that is the case their message is also antivax.

@BlueBlancmange I don’t mind having followers of my posts but please do not twist my view calling them gleeful and Antivax.

You are correct in saying I didn’t believe an effective vaccine was possible back in autumn last year, though I’m yet to see evidence showing the vaccines are going to be our saviours as the virus evolves long term. People are going to be disappointed once it becomes clear lockdowns and restrictions are needed again this winter. As for ‘changing tack after being proven wrong’, today’s release by PHE is fairly consistent in confirming my suspicions particularly against the Delta variant.

We need a cure and a total eradication of the virus otherwise we will stay on this hamster wheel, that is the elephant in the room.

Anyone with medical vulnerabilities or the elderly absolutely should be vaccinated as it will give them a degree of extra protection. It is not something I would personally take yet until more data is studied in terms of if/ how they work and the risks associated with them, I am fortunate to not be in position where it is a requirement to lead a relatively normal safe life.

I’m more than happy to keep my distance, limit my social contact with others, stay in the UK and wear a face mask when in public.

@Thewiseoneincognito if people like you don't get vaccinated then yes, we will need restrictions in the winter. You are willingly contributing to a self fulfilling prophecy.

The spikes in cases etc so have coincided with loosening of restrictions / new variants. It's not as 'seasonal' and predictable as you claim.

We can avoid lockdowns this winter. I'm not sure why you believe it to be so certain? You speak as if it is fact, that is what riles people up / causes them to mock you. And your tone does come across as gleeful. Surely if you are so intelligent then you have the ability to self reflect and realise perhaps it's you, not all of us?

This vaccine has been tested on far larger groups than most other drugs / medicines you take. Its speed was due to funding and motivation. Vaccines usually take a long time due to lack of funding and stop start trials.

@Thewiseoneincognito people simply won't comply with another lockdown. Sorry to disappoint you.

[quote socialmediamishap]@Thewiseoneincognito if people like you don't get vaccinated then yes, we will need restrictions in the winter. You are willingly contributing to a self fulfilling prophecy.

The spikes in cases etc so have coincided with loosening of restrictions / new variants. It's not as 'seasonal' and predictable as you claim.

We can avoid lockdowns this winter. I'm not sure why you believe it to be so certain? You speak as if it is fact, that is what riles people up / causes them to mock you. And your tone does come across as gleeful. Surely if you are so intelligent then you have the ability to self reflect and realise perhaps it's you, not all of us?

This vaccine has been tested on far larger groups than most other drugs / medicines you take. Its speed was due to funding and motivation. Vaccines usually take a long time due to lack of funding and stop start trials.[/quote]
Self reflection? Have you seen today’s numbers yet?

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@BlueBlancmange I don’t mind having followers of my posts but please do not twist my view calling them gleeful and Antivax.

You are correct in saying I didn’t believe an effective vaccine was possible back in autumn last year, though I’m yet to see evidence showing the vaccines are going to be our saviours as the virus evolves long term. People are going to be disappointed once it becomes clear lockdowns and restrictions are needed again this winter. As for ‘changing tack after being proven wrong’, today’s release by PHE is fairly consistent in confirming my suspicions particularly against the Delta variant.

We need a cure and a total eradication of the virus otherwise we will stay on this hamster wheel, that is the elephant in the room.

Anyone with medical vulnerabilities or the elderly absolutely should be vaccinated as it will give them a degree of extra protection. It is not something I would personally take yet until more data is studied in terms of if/ how they work and the risks associated with them, I am fortunate to not be in position where it is a requirement to lead a relatively normal safe life.

I’m more than happy to keep my distance, limit my social contact with others, stay in the UK and wear a face mask when in public.[/quote]
But then how have we been able to manage without absolute cures for lots of other infectious diseases? Some of which are far more once infectious? Measles for example? That is essentially controlled by nothing but vaccination as far as I can see.

@Thewiseoneincognito

Yes the Indian variant is spreading rapidly. We can't open up on the 21st June and we need to vaccinate as many people as soon as possible.

I'm also 'fortunate to be in a position' where I'm very low risk, but of course I took my jab when offered. It reduces the spread and therefore the more people that have it, the safer will all are. It's baffling that you are worried about future lockdowns but are too selfish to get vaccinated because essentially, getting ill with covid is low risk to you.

Christ. Covid isn't going away - the totally eradicating it sailed in January 2020. Science and vaccination is our way out of this. Play your part.

We should definitely keep the facemasks. They've done an amazing job of keeping it at bay so far!