How will a third wave look?

[Tigerblue]

We could possibility at the start of a third wave. How do others think it'll look? I don't think restrictions will be lifted on 21st June. We still have a way to go with vaccines, but we're doing well so I'm really hoping we've got enough vaccinated to keep numbers much lower than the previous wave and the NHS can cope (especially with a backlog of operations/treatments which surely will have to be prioritised for some of the hospital beds). Also, we can manage to keep everything open - this is more hope on my part.

"We face a third wave of Covid-19 and the die may already have been cast" Telegraph

"The raw data does not look good – cases of the delta variant have been growing exponentially since the last unlocking in May"

@applecatchers36

I have heard through an academic connection that that AZ is 50% effective against this Delta strain and Pfizer is 90% which might help explain why despite the increasing vaccination rate there is an increasing number of positive cases etc.. a lot of the UK population has been AZ

Both vaccines offer 33% protection after one dose.

AZ offers 60% protection after two doses.

Pfizer officers 80% protection after two doses

I think we need better treatments. That should be our next focus. M

Vaccines have helped but we are always going to behind.

It’s foolish to think we can vaccinate our way out of new variants.

So I've had AZ and am CV. Does that mean only 60 % chance of working (eeek I might end up shielding agsin type thing) or does it mean 60% effective. I am happy to go to supermarkets etc if it means likely tk be ill rather than dead...

The third wave is no surprise and will be quite big. However, it is mainly among young people and there are fewer hospitalisations and most of those are being treated on the wards and discharged quickly.

The government want a peak in the summer and not the winter, so they want to ‘optimally’ unlock. The current theory seems to be to unlock mid July, to get more people vaccinated and then get even more immunity in young people via infection. This should avoid a wave in winter.

Of course, the unknowns are vaccine escape via further mutations and more long COVID.

@giftidea,

The 60% after two doses is believed to be a low estimate, as many were soon after the second dose and it takes time for immunity to build.

That reassures me a bit.

If you are CV you have not been required to shield so far, and it strikes me as pretty unlikely they will ask more people to shield in future as it's such an awful thing to ask of people.

Even now, the CEV are meant to be shunning going inside into shops, meeting lots of people etc. And yes, if you look closely at the deshielding letter, although it's intended to be permanent in terms of the fuller isolation, there are hints that advice could change in the future. And of course around 50,000 people are continuing to shield on medical advice. But most of thebshiekding support services have been dismantled.

The effectiveness of the jab varies depending on which co-morbidity has cause a person to be classed as CEV (shield) or CV (vaccine group 6). For some, they can expect similar to the general population. For the immune compromised CEV, it's as low as 13% (blood cancer patients, source BMJ, but later research is not quite so pessimistic)

It does I'm afraid mean that the chances of the vaccine not working well, or not working at all, are higher if they are telling you that with your co-morbidity it is 60%. And the nature and severity of the co-morbidity might cancel out and age/sex/weight advantages you have.

Speak to your doctor at your next appointment about what might be the most sensible level of precaution that is reasonable for you.

The government must strongly encourage the CEV to still be very cautious, the data regarding efficacy is still being collected and realistically the vaccines haven’t been tested in the midst of a wave of the Delta variant.

Remember when this variant started to emerge in the UK win the possibility of an autumn wave the question of vaccine escape was usually answered with the introduction of tweaked booster jabs to improve protection. Those boosters are not here yet so please continue to be careful.

@June2021

Do the maths:

"Lucy788

"My work colleague in her 20s received her 2nd AZ a little over 4 weeks ago (heart murmur). Her mother also had both.
Last weekend it was her birthday and she followed the rules and met a small group of friends inside, a larger group of friends outside the following day and also saw her mum and boyfriend. Out of the 14 people she was with between Saturday and Monday, 8 of them tested positive last week including my friend and her mum who were both double jabbed. My friend is now approx 10 days in and is still very poorly, as is her mum (late 40s). Her friends are a mixture of poorly and totally symptomless.

So last weekend your friend met up with several people and a few more the next day and then test positive last week. Ok fine but then you say she is 10 days on - so since a week is 7 days and it was last weekend then how the heck can she be 10 days ill.

Do people just come on here and make all sorts of crap up

@June2021 she tested positive on the Tuesday after seeing people over the weekend and waking up feeling really groggy. I wrote my comment on the Friday which was 10 days later. I have no reason to make stuff up but thanks

I cant remember who else asked what level of poorly they are, not hospitalised poorly but my friend has been in bed pretty much since diagnosis. She said her muscles ache worse than she has ever known and she has a persistent headache. She's barely eaten for over a week. Her mum was confirmed positive 3 days later and is very similar. Her boyfriend (1 jab) has no symptoms expect loss of taste and smell. Other friends are similar and a couple of them also been bed bound.

I must admit a week in bed is worth it for being able to return to normal.

Its hospitalisation/death /long term lung damage I'm worried about

On an encouraging note, my cousin worked 10 hours in close quarters with a person - sharing a pen, phone and computer, and had lunch with them in an enclosed space. The colleague then tested positive and cousin (just the one jab) thought she was doomed. She’s now had three tests and didn’t catch it.

Large boob on cases graph, flat chest on hospitalisation graph and a pimple on deaths graph😁

@Angrymum22

Large boob on cases graph, flat chest on hospitalisation graph and a pimple on deaths graph😁

🤣🤣🤣👍