How will a third wave look?

[Tigerblue]

We could possibility at the start of a third wave. How do others think it'll look? I don't think restrictions will be lifted on 21st June. We still have a way to go with vaccines, but we're doing well so I'm really hoping we've got enough vaccinated to keep numbers much lower than the previous wave and the NHS can cope (especially with a backlog of operations/treatments which surely will have to be prioritised for some of the hospital beds). Also, we can manage to keep everything open - this is more hope on my part.

The wise one.

So formulaic.

‘Good luck with that. I hope you aren’t disappointed’

Do you cackle after you type?

@Sunshinegirl82 we are able to control Measles by vaccination because it does not evolve. Immunisation during early years tends to last a lifetime because the disease itself is consistent.

Covid is a different entity entirely, that is the problem. Without it being eradicated we are essentially constantly playing catch-up by trying to contain it by vaccines, only the vaccines we have are for the original strains. It is a sophisticated mutating virus that once a vaccine is reformulated, manufactured, and distributed amongst the population it has already changed once again rendering them less effective.

@JellyBabiesFan

I think we will start to open up and the third wave will be a shit load of people that did not want the vaccine. They had their chance.

What about those of us who can't have the vaccine?

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@Sunshinegirl82 we are able to control Measles by vaccination because it does not evolve. Immunisation during early years tends to last a lifetime because the disease itself is consistent.

Covid is a different entity entirely, that is the problem. Without it being eradicated we are essentially constantly playing catch-up by trying to contain it by vaccines, only the vaccines we have are for the original strains. It is a sophisticated mutating virus that once a vaccine is reformulated, manufactured, and distributed amongst the population it has already changed once again rendering them less effective.[/quote]
Ok, what about flu? That is actually far more able to mutate but we manage with that, we'll be able to manage this too.

In my view the only real issue is the novel nature of covid, covid is not "special" or worse than anything mankind has ever encountered before.

Flu has been circulating forever and a day, there is a background level of immunity which we enhance for vulnerable groups with the annual vaccine.

Vaccinating everyone is a shortcut to the background immunity that we already have for the vast majority of other illnesses. It might take a few rounds of vaccinations to get it fully established but I can't see any reason why we won't get there. Then we treat it like flu, tweak the vaccines every year so they are variant specific any vaccinate high risk groups annually.

Explanation of differences between flu and covid.

www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm#:~:text=Influenza%20(flu)%20and%20COVID%2D19%20are%20both%20contagious%20respiratory,spread%20more%20easily%20than%20flu.

@Sunshinegirl82 in theory your method should work.

The problem is Covid seems to mutate faster than Flu and is very different altogether. Covid is far more transmissible than flu for a start and so far only becomes more transmissible instead of less with each change. The hope is we can treat it annually as we do with Flu but if we get a mutation immediately after a booster programme that could be a risk to vaccinated then we are back to square one again.

The way out is a cure with a massive overhaul of our health infrastructure. A doubling of hospitals with Covid only centres and a huge recruitment drive for healthcare workers. Until this happens we can not move forward.

@Thewiseoneincognito do you mind me asking what your medical/scientific background is? In a time where there are so many unknowns you appear quite definite in your views and knowledgeable of viruses.

www.astrazeneca.com/what-science-can-do/topics/disease-understanding/the-natural-evolution-of-sars-cov-2.html

The vaccine isn’t 100% effective (honestly, I’m so tired of typing that). Why do people think the double vaccine gives them some sort of super power, especially for a virus that will mutate the more it spreads?

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@Sunshinegirl82 in theory your method should work.

The problem is Covid seems to mutate faster than Flu and is very different altogether. Covid is far more transmissible than flu for a start and so far only becomes more transmissible instead of less with each change. The hope is we can treat it annually as we do with Flu but if we get a mutation immediately after a booster programme that could be a risk to vaccinated then we are back to square one again.

The way out is a cure with a massive overhaul of our health infrastructure. A doubling of hospitals with Covid only centres and a huge recruitment drive for healthcare workers. Until this happens we can not move forward.[/quote]
It appears to be mutating more quickly but that is an illusion really. We are seeing lots of mutations with covid because there is so much covid about. Once everyone has been vaccinated and cases have been driven right down we will see far fewer variants cropping up.

That is why we need widespread, full population, global vaccination as quickly as possible. The quicker we achieve that the quicker we drive cases right down and limit the opportunity for variants to arise. Once that background level of vaccination is there and keeping a lid on case numbers it's a whole different ball game.

I’m sorry but it’s utterly insane that you post on boards banging on about how we will ABSOLUTELY have a terrible third wave and another lockdown... and then won’t even have the vaccine. One might even think you enjoyed the whole thing! @Thewiseoneincognito

[quote mrshoho]@Thewiseoneincognito do you mind me asking what your medical/scientific background is? In a time where there are so many unknowns you appear quite definite in your views and knowledgeable of viruses.[/quote]
Armchair epidemiologist and political commentator of sorts.

The Daily Mail is not my source of information.

@Iggly

The vaccine isn’t 100% effective (honestly, I’m so tired of typing that). Why do people think the double vaccine gives them some sort of super power, especially for a virus that will mutate the more it spreads?

Because vaccination drives down transmission. Less transmission, less covid, fewer variants.

@GerryManderson

We should definitely keep the facemasks. They've done an amazing job of keeping it at bay so far!

@showerbeer

I’m sorry but it’s utterly insane that you post on boards banging on about how we will ABSOLUTELY have a terrible third wave and another lockdown... and then won’t even have the vaccine. One might even think you enjoyed the whole thing! *@Thewiseoneincognito*

I will take a vaccine once we know exactly what it is we’re vaccinating against. It’s a personal choice and the last time I checked it wasn’t mandatory? Also I’d rather my dose went to an elderly or cev person elsewhere who actually needs the extra protection.

I’m not banging on about it, I’m simply having an opinion, which you are entitled to too.

to be fair, the face masks in schools in March and April do seem to have had a positive effect, we should bring them back. asap.

What is your actual justification for not taking the vaccine, which as we know, goes at least some way to slowing the spread of covid - when you’re absolutely convinced that we are about to enter another wave which will kill many people? Do you not particularly want to do your bit to avoid that? I can almost understand people who don’t want the vaccine because they don’t think covid is anything to be worried about, but not this.

It’s absolutely your choice not to have the vaccine, and I don’t believe it should be mandatory, but I can’t understand why you would actively choose not to do something that will help avoid the situation you’re seemingly so concerned about.

Also, if you can’t understand why younger and healthy people also need the protection from covid then you’re possibly not as much of an “armchair epidemiologist” as you think you are.

@Thewiseoneincognito

You are absolutely entitled to refuse the vaccine and I 100% defend your right to make that choice.

I'm a realist. We are not going to conjure up a cure and/or total overhaul of the healthcare system in the next 12 months, if ever, especially not worldwide, it's not possible.

Vaccinating the vast majority of the world population is not just possible, it's achievable.

Vaccination, and people choosing to be vaccinated, is what will control this pandemic. People who decide not to be vaccinated will benefit from the fact that others made/are making a different choice. That's not some kind of guilt trip or suggestion that there is some kind of moral obligation to have the vaccine, it's just a fact.

It will most likely have a much smaller peak, with a much lower CFR, thanks to a very high uptake of vaccines amongst the most vulnerable groups.
My guess is that the last stage of reopening will be delayed for 4 weeks, in order to vaccinate as many people as possible.

Just had Covid 2 months after jab 2. I had cold symptoms for a week.
This is what the third wave will be like, in the main.
DS was asymptomatic. There will be a lot of asymptomatic spread, a few breakthrough infections that are colds and a tiny minority who will be seriously ill or die, mostly those who are very elderly or otherwise ill.
Same as flu and many other infectious diseases.
Time to get back to normal, if not now then end of July once everyone has been offered a vaccine.

To answer your op, I've consulted mystic Meg, completed my lump o' metric regression analysis, counted the number of the who are walking around my area, the proportion who seems to be in big groups for a night out, those travelling singley with masks and observed use of sanitiser.

From this utterly unscientific position, lousy with observational bias, and essentially useless in any real sense - I've pre marked my calendar for cases rising in a bothersome way (multiple regions) from week commencing 21st June - with hospitalisations/ deaths from week commencing 19th July.

I am using this information, to make sure I get household stuff sorted in good time in case of a lock down. But of course hope that vaccination, hygiene and improved treatment protocols lessen the deaths - but we are essentially a test bed in my opinion, and we still need to work out what works for this disease, in this economy, in this society.

@showerbeer

What is your actual justification for not taking the vaccine, which as we know, goes at least some way to slowing the spread of covid - when you’re absolutely convinced that we are about to enter another wave which will kill many people? Do you not particularly want to do your bit to avoid that? I can almost understand people who don’t want the vaccine because they don’t think covid is anything to be worried about, but not this.

It’s absolutely your choice not to have the vaccine, and I don’t believe it should be mandatory, but I can’t understand why you would actively choose not to do something that will help avoid the situation you’re seemingly so concerned about.

Also, if you can’t understand why younger and healthy people also need the protection from covid then you’re possibly not as much of an “armchair epidemiologist” as you think you are.

My ‘justification’ for waiting before having a vaccine is simply because I’m personally not convinced they’re as effective as we want them to be. The fact that several companies are manufacturing them with varying levels of success irks me for want of a better phrase, it just doesn’t fill me with confidence.

It’s not ideal waiting this out let me tell you, as soon as there is better clinical data and fewer unanswered questions I will have one. Until then I will stay masked up and avoid close contact with people as much as possible.

I would like to see the figures illustrating how many deaths will be prevented by a four week delay.

What’s acceptable?

If it prevents 1000 deaths, was that acceptable? What about 100 deaths? 40 deaths? 12 deaths ?

This puts the arguments quite well, re further delays to the June 21st notional opening.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-ponders-four-week-delay-end-covid-restrictions-cg6kmm290

No one can realistically estimate deaths, we don't understand the death figures we actually have as far as I can see.

But the way the graphs are going doesn't look great.

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1403423583641210880?s=21

A more nuanced approach, as suggested by Chris Hopson, makes a lot of sense.

What did he suggest?