How will a third wave look?

[Tigerblue]

We could possibility at the start of a third wave. How do others think it'll look? I don't think restrictions will be lifted on 21st June. We still have a way to go with vaccines, but we're doing well so I'm really hoping we've got enough vaccinated to keep numbers much lower than the previous wave and the NHS can cope (especially with a backlog of operations/treatments which surely will have to be prioritised for some of the hospital beds). Also, we can manage to keep everything open - this is more hope on my part.

He got misquoted (as he said that modelling was in some respects quite unsatisfactory) but he is actually suggesting that we do something more subtle than an all or nothing re-opening.

twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1401403305809547269

Ah...I’ve read the Twitter feed. That’s a very good, reasoned list.

Everyone should read that.

(Though unfortunately lots of people are quite binary and find it hard to work with subtlety).

I blame the selfish people who don’t want to take the vaccine. Stay away from the rest of us please.

It’s not just them. The government not stopping flights from India had something to do with it

[quote herecomesthsun]He got misquoted (as he said that modelling was in some respects quite unsatisfactory) but he is actually suggesting that we do something more subtle than an all or nothing re-opening.

twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1401403305809547269[/quote]
This is from 5rh June. The data is a bit more obvious and serious now.

Sorry 6th june

It’s not ideal waiting this out let me tell you, as soon as there is better clinical data and fewer unanswered questions I will have one. Until then I will stay masked up and avoid close contact with people as much as possible.

Good, you do that but don't expect everyone to live like that.

@Malteser71

I would like to see the figures illustrating how many deaths will be prevented by a four week delay.

What’s acceptable?

If it prevents 1000 deaths, was that acceptable? What about 100 deaths? 40 deaths? 12 deaths ?

Me too but I don’t think it’s about deaths. It’ll be hospitalisations and the NHS coping which drives this I think.

I have read this thread and it's clear that everyone is thinking the double vaccination is the way out.
My work colleague in her 20s received her 2nd AZ a little over 4 weeks ago (heart murmur). Her mother also had both.
Last weekend it was her birthday and she followed the rules and met a small group of friends inside, a larger group of friends outside the following day and also saw her mum and boyfriend. Out of the 14 people she was with between Saturday and Monday, 8 of them tested positive last week including my friend and her mum who were both double jabbed.
My friend is now approx 10 days in and is still very poorly, as is her mum (late 40s). Her friends are a mixture of poorly and totally symptomless.
It worries me that the vaccination seems to have not helped them avoid illness at all really.

So what do you suggest?

Because basically you are saying the vaccine doesn’t work well.

So....what do we do

@Lucy788

I have read this thread and it's clear that everyone is thinking the double vaccination is the way out. My work colleague in her 20s received her 2nd AZ a little over 4 weeks ago (heart murmur). Her mother also had both. Last weekend it was her birthday and she followed the rules and met a small group of friends inside, a larger group of friends outside the following day and also saw her mum and boyfriend. Out of the 14 people she was with between Saturday and Monday, 8 of them tested positive last week including my friend and her mum who were both double jabbed. My friend is now approx 10 days in and is still very poorly, as is her mum (late 40s). Her friends are a mixture of poorly and totally symptomless. It worries me that the vaccination seems to have not helped them avoid illness at all really.

Two vaccinations are 88% protective so just over 1 in 10 double jabbed will still get ill. This is a problem when cases are high however if we get as many people as possible jabbed and reach herd immunity it should not be an issue as cases will stay low. This is why I think we need restrictions a little longer and we should't just think that high cases are ok because the link with deaths has been broken.

@Lucy788

I have read this thread and it's clear that everyone is thinking the double vaccination is the way out. My work colleague in her 20s received her 2nd AZ a little over 4 weeks ago (heart murmur). Her mother also had both. Last weekend it was her birthday and she followed the rules and met a small group of friends inside, a larger group of friends outside the following day and also saw her mum and boyfriend. Out of the 14 people she was with between Saturday and Monday, 8 of them tested positive last week including my friend and her mum who were both double jabbed. My friend is now approx 10 days in and is still very poorly, as is her mum (late 40s). Her friends are a mixture of poorly and totally symptomless. It worries me that the vaccination seems to have not helped them avoid illness at all really.

Wow that’s extremely unfortunate.

Sorry pressed post by mistake. I hope your friend and her mother get better soon.

Has anyone died from anything else yet?

@Malteser71

So what do you suggest?

Because basically you are saying the vaccine doesn’t work well.

So....what do we do

We just get on with it. No one is banning booze, drugs, cigarettes and forcing exercise on anyone- the former three causing the NHS thousands and resulting in huge death rates. I don’t understand why we seem to be aiming for zero covid deaths.

[quote socialmediamishap]@Thewiseoneincognito
@NannyAndJohn

Just need princess to show up and it's a full house [/quote]
Totally. I was thinking of starting a roll call thread entitled 'avoid threads with the following users'

In reality, it will look like a few people having a minor virus, like any other virus, which is what it is. To the government and media who for reasons of their own want to keep the neurosis going it will be made to look like an appalling apocalypse. By the 108th wave sometime in 2027 when we're all even more fat, vitamin D deficient, ill-educated and unhealthy, I'm hoping that people might have noticed that this is all a scientifically illiterate and unethical nonsense. Or maybe people will look at Blair putting his tuppenceworth in and begin to wonder whether the man who lied about wmds might not be the best person to trust on any issue.

@Malteser71

So what do you suggest?

Because basically you are saying the vaccine doesn’t work well.

So....what do we do

The vaccines are not our saviour. They are a crucial part in our battle with Covid but they’re certainly not the kill shot. Our approach to Covid should not be black and white, we have to remain adaptable as and when situations arise.

Once that is absorbed into the psyche of the people and we realise that caution and awareness is still super vital we can start to make some moves forward.

High case numbers are still bad news for anyone who is classed as vulnerable, the odds may have been levelled up but they are not fully in their favour should they contract Covid. The risk is definitely still there.

We are all eager to live our lives just as we did before March 2020, but trying to hurry along the process by promising ‘Freedom’ dates out to the public months in advance and making commitments dependent on several variable factors instead of taking a pragmatic approach is simply not wise.

Right now our numbers are showing something is happening in the population with infections, this is a new phase and an opportunity to see how effective the vaccines are under an acceptable level of restrictions with limited international travel and a level of freedom that most of us can tolerate. We’re not exactly locked in our homes are we?

Fully opening up at this point risks us losing what we have right now and taking several big steps backwards in fairly swift succession. Let’s not forget we are in summertime now and the case rates are still increasing at an alarming rate, now imagine autumn with the Delta variant. We have to remain fully alert.

Wise one. You can remain fully alert all you want, but all those stress hormones will get you in the end. No vaccine for that.

@Lucy788
I have read this thread and it's clear that everyone is thinking the double vaccination is the way out.
My work colleague in her 20s received her 2nd AZ a little over 4 weeks ago (heart murmur). Her mother also had both.
Last weekend it was her birthday and she followed the rules and met a small group of friends inside, a larger group of friends outside the following day and also saw her mum and boyfriend. Out of the 14 people she was with between Saturday and Monday, 8 of them tested positive last week including my friend and her mum who were both double jabbed.
My friend is now approx 10 days in and is still very poorly, as is her mum (late 40s). Her friends are a mixture of poorly and totally symptomless.
It worries me that the vaccination seems to have not helped them avoid illness at all really

How ill are they? Hospital ill or just ill?

"Once that is absorbed into the psyche of the people and we realise that caution and awareness is still super vital we can start to make some moves forward."

I don't understand what this means to be honest? We should wait around for a while and not really do anything whilst we acclimatise?

I think we should do the exact opposite to be honest, I think we should pull out all the stops to vaccinate everyone as quickly as we possibly can.

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@Sunshinegirl82 in theory your method should work.

The problem is Covid seems to mutate faster than Flu and is very different altogether. Covid is far more transmissible than flu for a start and so far only becomes more transmissible instead of less with each change. The hope is we can treat it annually as we do with Flu but if we get a mutation immediately after a booster programme that could be a risk to vaccinated then we are back to square one again.

The way out is a cure with a massive overhaul of our health infrastructure. A doubling of hospitals with Covid only centres and a huge recruitment drive for healthcare workers. Until this happens we can not move forward.[/quote]
Covid mutates at a slower rate than flu.

For the person who thinks we can vaccinate the world and prevent mutations. You're wrong. We're going to have to live with this virus and its mutations.

Yes, we will to an extent. That said, if we vaccinate the vast majority of people we will drive down the number of cases and minimise opportunities for variants to materialise.

Fewer variants will make it less likely that existing immunity/currently available vaccines will be compromised.

If you assume 1 mutation for every 1,000 incidences of infection (just an example) you will end up with more mutations if you have 100,000 cases than if you have 10,000 cases.

More vaccination, less covid, fewer variants.

Do you think mutations only happen during transmission?