Does the anti vax drama affect you?

[Onthegrapevine]

I am seeing more and more videos surfacing from anti vax folk along laughing and joking about the vaccinated being dead within the year amongst other things.

When the conspiracy theories started when there was first talk of a vaccine I honestly laughed it off, but over a year in and now I’m double jabbed it’s getting to me.

It feels like such a divide between “us and them.” Some anti vax are now claiming they are looking to “protect people” and that’s why they are “educating us.”

Prior to Covid I was aware of the conspiracy theories surrounding the flu jab etc, my own midwife even said she was “on the fence” about the flu jab when I asked when I should have mine. But those conspiracies were very sporadic and I didn’t feel bombarded with them in the way I do covid.

These are so loud, and they are everywhere.

Is anyone else feeling the same?

@IhateAntivaccers

Because a small percentage of a very big number is a big number. If the virus circulates in younger age groups because that element of the population has not been vaccinated infections levels will be very high which will mean:

1. some of that younger population will themselves become very unwell and die (a reasonably significant number, certainly in the thousands even assuming a 0.0002 death rate). Clearly there will also be a significant proportion (hundreds of thousands) who will be very unwell and will require assistance from the NHS;

2. the more vulnerable population will be repeatedly exposed to the virus and some of those people will not be protected by the vaccine either because they couldn't be vaccinated or because the vaccine was not effective for them. Again, this will result in serious illness and death.

In addition, the more the virus circulates the more likely it is that new variants will continue to emerge that could chip away at the protection provided by the vaccines.

Again, why would every country in the world have decided to vaccinate everyone if only vaccinating a proportion was sufficient to manage the situation? What would be the logic behind that decision?

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@IhateAntivaccers

Because a small percentage of a very big number is a big number. If the virus circulates in younger age groups because that element of the population has not been vaccinated infections levels will be very high which will mean:

1. some of that younger population will themselves become very unwell and die (a reasonably significant number, certainly in the thousands even assuming a 0.0002 death rate). Clearly there will also be a significant proportion (hundreds of thousands) who will be very unwell and will require assistance from the NHS;

2. the more vulnerable population will be repeatedly exposed to the virus and some of those people will not be protected by the vaccine either because they couldn't be vaccinated or because the vaccine was not effective for them. Again, this will result in serious illness and death.

In addition, the more the virus circulates the more likely it is that new variants will continue to emerge that could chip away at the protection provided by the vaccines.

Again, why would every country in the world have decided to vaccinate everyone if only vaccinating a proportion was sufficient to manage the situation? What would be the logic behind that decision?
[/quote]
The " small number of a big number " line sounds very catchy and the sort of thing that you would expect to find in a government propaganda pamphlet but the reality is more people have died of suicide than covid in young people- the reality is the number of people under 40 as one eg could fit in a single room that have died of covid. Tragic as it is, it isn't a big number. There are 70 million people in the Uk, 100 deaths in the under 40s isn't a big number no matter how many times hancock appears on tv scaring people to hell in a handcart.

Why have the world vaccinated everyone? They haven't

Well it isn't a big number as things stand because we have spent the best part of a year living under various restrictions in order to limit transmission. Widespread vaccination will replace the restrictions in applying downward pressure on case numbers.

Every country that is able to do has a strategy of vaccinating its entire adult population as far as I am aware. Which countries are planning on vaccinating only the most vulnerable in their populations? Which countries consider partial vaccination of the population as a viable long term strategy?

btw a 0.0002 % death rate is a 1 in a half a million chance of death so given there are maybe 40 million under 40s in the Uk that is 80 deaths- which hardly " thousands" is it

@Sunshinegirl82

Well it isn't a big number as things stand because we have spent the best part of a year living under various restrictions in order to limit transmission. Widespread vaccination will replace the restrictions in applying downward pressure on case numbers.

Every country that is able to do has a strategy of vaccinating its entire adult population as far as I am aware. Which countries are planning on vaccinating only the most vulnerable in their populations? Which countries consider partial vaccination of the population as a viable long term strategy?

It isn't a big number because the death rate for younger people is tiny, you know millions of people have already had covid I presume?

40,000,000 x 0.0002 = 8,000 by my calculation? Unless I'm missing something (not saying I'm not but that's what it looks like to me!)

Yes, lots of people have had covid and lots more would have had covid if there hadn't been restrictions in place for a year. If we remove the restrictions and don't replace them with something creating downward pressure on case numbers then case numbers will rise very significantly.

@Sunshinegirl82

40,000,000 x 0.0002 = 8,000 by my calculation? Unless I'm missing something (not saying I'm not but that's what it looks like to me!)

If 40 million are under 40 and the risk is 0.0002 % then

if 1% is 400,000
0.1% is 40,000
0.01 is 4,000
0.001 is 400
0.0001 is 40 then 0.0002% is 80

@Sunshinegirl82

Yes, lots of people have had covid and lots more would have had covid if there hadn't been restrictions in place for a year. If we remove the restrictions and don't replace them with something creating downward pressure on case numbers then case numbers will rise very significantly.

and if the death rates are so tiny and cases rise so what, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.. what do you suggest , years of lockdowns? Unfortunately there will be deaths whatever road is taken

I put 40,000,000 x 0.0002 into a calculator and got 8,000. What do you get if you do that direct calculation?

@Sunshinegirl82

I put 40,000,000 x 0.0002 into a calculator and got 8,000. What do you get if you do that direct calculation?

because you aren't differentiating between decimals and percentages- how many people under 40 have died of covid in the uk?

No, I don't suggest years of lockdown at all, in fact I'm very keen for lockdown to end as soon as possible (I'm not keen on it generally and I don't think it's sustainable for much longer).

It's because I want lockdown done and dusted permanently that I want widespread vaccination to be successful. To replace lockdown and force case numbers down to very low levels so that we can pretty much ignore covid and get on with our lives!

0.0002 as a decimal is 1 in 5000 which is clearly incorrect for under 40s

@Sunshinegirl82

No, I don't suggest years of lockdown at all, in fact I'm very keen for lockdown to end as soon as possible (I'm not keen on it generally and I don't think it's sustainable for much longer).

It's because I want lockdown done and dusted permanently that I want widespread vaccination to be successful. To replace lockdown and force case numbers down to very low levels so that we can pretty much ignore covid and get on with our lives!

Do you think if every man woman and child was vaccinated , with vaccine immunity not 100% for various variants , decaying with time with boosters needed every few months, travel with new variants brought in that lockdown will ever be done and dusted?

If you want an end to lockdown you do that by protesting as they did with the absurd football super league which was soon scrapped not having groups of people bullying youngsters to jabbing themselves continually

But you can express a percentage as a decimal can't you? 40,000,000 x 0.01 = 400,000 which seems right to me?

Not many, but that really isn't the only point of widespread vaccination. Getting cases low so that we have negligible levels of infection in the community and then replicating that as far as we can worldwide seems likely to me to result in the least harm at both an individual and population levels.

Vaccines are not compulsory for anyone at any age so if people take the view they don't want the vaccine then they don't have it, end of.

@Sunshinegirl82

But you can express a percentage as a decimal can't you? 40,000,000 x 0.01 = 400,000 which seems right to me?

Not many, but that really isn't the only point of widespread vaccination. Getting cases low so that we have negligible levels of infection in the community and then replicating that as far as we can worldwide seems likely to me to result in the least harm at both an individual and population levels.

Vaccines are not compulsory for anyone at any age so if people take the view they don't want the vaccine then they don't have it, end of.

" you can't express a decimal as a percentage can you"

Yes you can, 45.5% etc etc

If you think we will get anywhere close to worldwide vaccination levels in countries where millions of people don't have access to clean water, food or shelter all the best with that. Do you think with around 600 million people just suffering hunger alone, they are going to worry about covid which has an average age of death of 82 when diseases ( serious diseases) mean the vast majority don't make their 50s?

Misread can/cant but in any event the risks are what they are backed up by actual death figures

Well firstly I think it's very unlikely that boosters will be needed every few months, they may not even be needed annually depending on how things develop with respect to how long immunity lasts and variants.

Medium to long term I expect it to be similar to flu. There will be a base level of immunity in the population generated by a combination of exposure and vaccination (predominantly vaccination) and boosters will only be required by the more vulnerable groups. That isn't necessary for flu now because flu has been circulating forever and a day and so that background immunity already exists. Widespread vaccination is just speeding up the process of creating a background of immunity in the population.

AT the height of the pandemic the chances of a middle aged person of 45 and those under was 1 in 66,000 so you could at least double that for kids and probably that would be an overly pessimistic stat

www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1295654/coronavirus-uk-death-rate-age

I think that it's in the interests of wealthy countries to control covid and so they will throw whatever money is needed at less developed countries to achieve that.

Unfortunately most wealthy countries are completely unaffected by whether or not people in less developed countries have clean water etc and so (wrongly) their interest in righting those wrongs are limited. I suspect it will be very different if they have actual skin in the game as it were.

@Sunshinegirl82

Well firstly I think it's very unlikely that boosters will be needed every few months, they may not even be needed annually depending on how things develop with respect to how long immunity lasts and variants.

Medium to long term I expect it to be similar to flu. There will be a base level of immunity in the population generated by a combination of exposure and vaccination (predominantly vaccination) and boosters will only be required by the more vulnerable groups. That isn't necessary for flu now because flu has been circulating forever and a day and so that background immunity already exists. Widespread vaccination is just speeding up the process of creating a background of immunity in the population.

Well covid boosters are being rolled out this Autumn which is now 6 months since the first group had their shots

www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1116

"The BMJ revealed in March that a covid-19 booster vaccine would likely be rolled out in the autumn to avoid another winter surge.1

The final policy will be informed by advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation and the results of clinical trials assessing the impact of mixing approved covid-19 vaccines.

Health secretary Matt Hancock said, “Our vaccination programme is bringing back our freedom, but the biggest risk to that progress is posed by a new variant.

“We’re working on our plans for booster shots, which are the best way to keep us safe and free

@Sunshinegirl82

I think that it's in the interests of wealthy countries to control covid and so they will throw whatever money is needed at less developed countries to achieve that.

Unfortunately most wealthy countries are completely unaffected by whether or not people in less developed countries have clean water etc and so (wrongly) their interest in righting those wrongs are limited. I suspect it will be very different if they have actual skin in the game as it were.

Africa has a population of 1.2 billion, if you think throwing money at it getting covid vaccines out there where most of the population probably wouldnt take it anyway - where keeping food in their stomachs is a daily struggle all the best with that.

Where is all this money coming from then? The tax payer here where record unemployment levels exist in a country that has an NHS that can barely function?

Yes, in the short term boosters will be necessary because the high levels of virus circulating (because we haven't yet vaccinated everyone) mean that we continue to see new variants that might require a different/updated vaccine.

If widespread vaccination works as it should, the levels of virus circulating will decline and decline as time goes by, we will see fewer and fewer variants and the vaccines should hold up better against them. Once that baseline of immunity is established in the population it will be a completely different ball game.

It's the novel nature of the vaccine that makes it so problematic not really the virus itself. Once we create the shortcut to baseline population immunity through vaccination (rather than exposure) I see no reason why covid won't be comparable to any other virus endemic to the human population.

International travel is likely to be impacted for some time yet and I expect that vaccination may well be required to enter some countries.

Variants will not be entirely eliminated but they should reduce significantly once there is enough immunity in the population to keep cases low. The pandemic started because the entire worldwide population was completely susceptible to covid. The population won't be susceptible in the same way once the vast majority have been vaccinated.

It would be extremely unlikely that a variant would arise that would be completely unaffected by vaccine generated immunity, if that does happen then we'd be back at square one with lockdowns until a new vaccine could be developed.

We don't know how long vaccine generated immunity will last, it could be years (SARS patients still demonstrated an immune response 17 years after infection) or it might be less.

I don't think an endless cycle of boosters will be necessary, certainly not in the long term. It might be necessary to keep on top of boosters in the first year or so but once the baseline of immunity is there I think it will be much more like flu in how it's managed. I think most young people will do what they think will allow them to live the life they want to live. If someone of any age doesn't want to have the vaccine then they don't have to.

Covid isn't special, it's just new. We just need the background immunity to it, once that's there it will just be one of those things that we are aware of but aren't particularly focused on. Quickest and safest way to background immunity is vaccination in my view.