How much further can covid mutate?

[Thelm]

I’m just wondering. Is there a limit as to how far a virus can mutate? Are we going to still be in a race to contain it in five years time?

I just don’t know how this will end.

Oh Sally please just shut up

@Thelm

I’m just wondering. Is there a limit as to how far a virus can mutate? Are we going to still be in a race to contain it in five years time?

I just don’t know how this will end.

Peter Openshaw thinks the virus will eventually run out of ways to mutate.

I think the description earlier of NZ imports arriving at sea and airports only, illustrates it all really. That’s how they are managing their zero covid there. So all they have to do is keep the ports (fixed in one place) safe/free of covid. They don’t have billions of drivers from all over the world travelling up and down their country, mixing and using services and facilities, therefore relying on quite inaccurate tests.

Plus having a population one thirteenth the size of UK

Hi everyone. I have been reading the thread with interest and good to see some intellijent convsersation.

I reported Sally and requested mumsnet to ban her because of her racist post which has now been removed. She attacked whereismymojo for being a witch which is in itself a racist comment. I have been a white witch since I was 7 ( now 35) and have found some grate spells for all manner of illnesses. I was reading the thread that the troll sally put up and I hope there will be another witch thread for us to chat on soon as this one has closed for some reeson? witches are a race like travellers etc and it is classified as racism

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/philosophy_religion_spirituality/3997761-Any-Witches-Here-Part-12?msgid=99703839#99703839

Sally said " how can anyone be taken seriously getting a teasure trove of information from a thread on witches" Well SALLY if you had any education you would no that witchcraft is still practised in Africa and helps many people

On the subject of covid it is difficult to no what to do. I read the comments from potato giving her experteese on it and agree that lockdowns are sadly inevitable with the new variants. As docter potato ( sorry dont no real name) says , the people who are experts no what they are talking about. I also agree we need to go for zero covid and only then can we open up.

I hope everyone is well apart from the anti vax trolls like sally who I have now banned for spreading disinformation and racism.

@SallyBasingstoke

New zealand population 5 million

Uk population 70 million with a shared border that new zealand doesn't have

There are too many stupid people on this thread to warrant a sensible debate. Feel free to hide away for the rest of your lives as it's clear that's the desire from people painting covid as the black death

It is obvious reading the thread that you are the stupid one as uk does not have a border and is an ISLAND.

IhateAntivaccers

The witch thread - number 12 in the series is full - it automatically closes.
There has been a 13th thread of another 1000 messages, and now on the 14th thread- also a continuation.
You will find the 14th witch thread here- it is open for contributions - fly over if you would like to chat.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/philosophy_religion_spirituality/4213962-Any-Witches-Here-Part-14

@wheresmymojo

If there are prizes for the most depressing post then I'll pop in with this one...

If Avian Flu ever jumps across to humans and mutates to be able to pass from human to human the modelling predicts a 75% fatality rate. Compared to roughly 1% for COVID.

So yeah.

We actually are on tenterhooks about flu within certain circles.

yes and this is a reeson for us to lockdown sooner rather than later as this is another virus that could get out of hand but we no the government is useless

[quote speakout]IhateAntivaccers

The witch thread - number 12 in the series is full - it automatically closes.
There has been a 13th thread of another 1000 messages, and now on the 14th thread- also a continuation.
You will find the 14th witch thread here- it is open for contributions - fly over if you would like to chat.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/philosophy_religion_spirituality/4213962-Any-Witches-Here-Part-14[/quote]
ok I will ty

Seriously? People are still trying to push the it's only New Zealand that did the common sense thing - together with a hefty dose of British exeptionalism!?

Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and many African countries. Large populations, densely populated. They too closed their borders. Except for (genuinely) essential travel. Imports and exports continued just fine.

Right now France (amongst other European and other countries including the US) is banning non essential travel from high risk countries - like the UK. They're still importing and exporting goods to and from us.

Vietnam is a very good case study.

UK.
Mostly wide open borders with no real quarantine.
More than 130,000 dead.

Vietnam.
Restricted borders. Proper quarantine.
Total deaths since the start in 2020 - around 50.

Agree tealightsandd it’s so sad. I was on here in March 2020 saying I don’t understand why we aren’t restricting travel in and out and you just get shot down by people saying it’s impractical. I mentioned it in school playground also and people looked at the like I was a lunatic. One of the mums sent me a link to a YouTube video which explained how we all would get Covid but just needed to flatten the curve so nhs not overwhelmed. As she seemed to think I was really hard of understanding how pandemics worked. I stopped discussing with people irl at that point.

hefty dose of British exeptionalism!?

This phrase really needs to be put in the bin. It’s meaningless and wheeled out so much on here.

Agree about British exceptionalism @Tealightsandd

I work in a very international workplace and a lot of people were at wtf our government were(n't) doing compared to their home countries.

I see the same old stuff posted at least now the SAGE minutes show the picture at the beginning.

It is obvious reading the thread that you are the stupid one as uk does not have a border and is an ISLAND.

SallyBasingstoke is correct for once. Great Britain might be an island but you've forgotten Northern Ireland, @IhateAntivaccers

It is on an ireland surrounded by water so I havent counted it @chesirecat99

Thank you Tealightsandd. It's not easy for any country to close its borders, even NZ. In many ways it must be easier for leaders to throw their hands up and say it's impossible so let's not even try to find a way to do this. Our international tourism industry, which accounted for a huge chunk of our GDP has been decimated. A very good reason to have stayed open for business but our country chose health before wealth.

@Cousinit

Thank you Tealightsandd. It's not easy for any country to close its borders, even NZ. In many ways it must be easier for leaders to throw their hands up and say it's impossible so let's not even try to find a way to do this. Our international tourism industry, which accounted for a huge chunk of our GDP has been decimated. A very good reason to have stayed open for business but our country chose health before wealth.

I think it’s worth looking at early Feb 2020 SAGE minutes before suggesting countries threw up their hands and put wealth before health.

Also see SAGE concerns over winter peak.

I do think people reach for the easy statements like this when the reality is more complex and also luckily for us documented and in the public domain.

Ok, so SAGE got it wrong early on. But what about all the errors that have been made since then? The country has had numerous opportunities to put in place an effective track and trace system and border controls. I don't know who else can be blamed for these failings.

But credit where it's due, the UK's vaccination rollout has been nothing short of amazing.

Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and many African countries.

These countries are exactly just the same as the UK in every way!

@Cousinit

Ok, so SAGE got it wrong early on. But what about all the errors that have been made since then? The country has had numerous opportunities to put in place an effective track and trace system and border controls. I don't know who else can be blamed for these failings.

If posters want a normal life in the U.K. it needs complete border control. No leaks. You cannot have a few cases come in and continue to live without community restrictions. Every time it gets in you have to react as Vic and NZ do. Fine if it is rare but testing road freight people at that rate will bring cases up what every week at least.

Do you think it’s possible to do this in the U.K.? Yes you’ll have to consider lorry drivers in their 1000s and NI / ROI.

Test and trace is not easy. 105 in lockdown in NZ including asymptomatic and even then it was touch and go whether it would be contained. Another week later and maybe too many.

You could install more draconian tracking but privacy is important.

I’d love a full enquiry with Whitty and Vallance etc, I’d find it really interesting. And I’d be completely open to findings. But I just find some posts a bit easy with health over wealth stuff.