How much further can covid mutate?

[Thelm]

I’m just wondering. Is there a limit as to how far a virus can mutate? Are we going to still be in a race to contain it in five years time?

I just don’t know how this will end.

@WuhanClanAintNothingToFuckWith

Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and many African countries.

These countries are exactly just the same as the UK in every way!

They have considerable differences between them but managed to take very effective measures all of them.

We all know the UK fucked up, no point trying to pretend there was something unique about the UK that made it happen, it was a political failure. Best thing to do is learn for the future. Because it may not be the last pandemic

Colouring do you think the same of Italy, Spain, Belgium, NYC and France?

And do you think it was anything to do with SAGE advice in early Feb? Have you read the minutes?

@Tealightsandd

They’re all hot countries. Bar Japan. Do u know what the people of Japan did when they had no PPE at the start? They immediately rallied round seeing their own PPE from bedsheets and whatever fabrics they could find. There’s one big difference!

Sewing PPE to protect the hospitals

Many African countries have been vaccinated (Chinese vaccine)

Teamwork, unity. They weren’t busy slating their government

Re NI/ROI. Ireland currently has restrictions on arrivals from high risk countries - including the UK. Not full border control but definitely there are requirements. 14 day self isolation after arrival and negative PCR test before travel.

Other EU countries also have restrictions or bars on high risk travellers such as people from the UK.

But I just find some posts a bit easy with health over wealth stuff

One of the scientific experts was speaking about this the other day. They pointed out that health is wealth - and wealth is health. Our government's prioritisation of international travel above all else had led not only to one of the highest death tolls and rates in the world, but also a badly damaged economy (which will be further impacted by the numbers of Long Covid sufferers).

@Cousinit

Thank you Tealightsandd. It's not easy for any country to close its borders, even NZ. In many ways it must be easier for leaders to throw their hands up and say it's impossible so let's not even try to find a way to do this. Our international tourism industry, which accounted for a huge chunk of our GDP has been decimated. A very good reason to have stayed open for business but our country chose health before wealth.

Yes it's definitely harder to do the right thing. A good leader is willing to do that - take unpopular but necessary decisions. You in NZ had that good leader.

And of course by choosing health, you also protected wealth. It's impossible not to suffer some issues during a pandemic. NZ's international tourism has taken a knock, but the whole of the UK economy has been hit - badly.

Yes it's definitely harder to do the right thing. A good leader is willing to do that - take unpopular but necessary decisions. You in NZ had that good leader.

This stuff is just sounds like mooning over other countries.

Have you read the minutes and what was advised? Did it say we advise you shut the borders and the leader said no?

And b) how much easier was it in late March to get political acceptance than when U.K. had to do it? 105 cases when?

I know people are just on repeat with posts and it’s pretty much pointless but at least think about the differences. Having lived in both countries (well Aus, same sort of comments) equal amounts it shows how important it is to look at the reality. I do wonder if people see family members on SM at a wedding or something and take it from there.

but the whole of the UK economy has been hit - badly.

Yep, that was the plan. Lose lose.

Surely we didn't need any advice or meeting minutes, to know what to do? It was screamingly obvious to me (and plenty of other people).

Very basic principles of infection control. Simple common sense.

We all saw what was happening in China. The people in hazmat suits disinfecting the streets. It was very obviously something highly contagious. And serious.

The very obvious thing to do was to not let the virus get a hold in the first place, and to definitely not let it spread. Which means border control (with real quarantine for truly essential travel).

We used to understand infection control and isolation. We used to have isolation hospitals and sanatoriums for contagious diseases like TB.

Surely we didn't need any advice or meeting minutes, to know what to do? It was screamingly obvious to me (and plenty of other people).

We didn’t need SAGE? Just a few mners

Tea I hope you are busy applying for the CMO position for next pandemic ;

WHO said test test test, Harries said that was for countries with little healthcare

Anyone who thinks the UK early response was good enough is deluded.

The inquiry will be bad for both the government and their advisors, unless it is thoroughly hobbled.

well as the docter said in the thread earlier, if we had got borders right earlier we could have got zero covid but might be to late now

WHO said test test test

What did they say about borders?

Anyone who thinks the UK early response was good enough is deluded

Whatever. A few insults always help understanding.

If people can’t answer without them on the basis of facts what’s the point.

@MarshaBradyo

Surely we didn't need any advice or meeting minutes, to know what to do? It was screamingly obvious to me (and plenty of other people).

We didn’t need SAGE? Just a few mners

Tea I hope you are busy applying for the CMO position for next pandemic ;

With no clinical training, not CMO. Perhaps Secretary of Health instead.

With no clinical training, not CMO. Perhaps Secretary of Health instead.

Do it you’d get more positive posts on mn at least

Was pleased to see a majority want the inquiry this year.

One of the scientific experts was speaking about this the other day. They pointed out that health is wealth - and wealth is health.

What was that an “economic poetic scientist” or something? I’ve never heard of one of them.

Health is wealth
And wealth is health
This is the plan
For all man
So follow it and we will win
And put this virus in the bin
Obey my leadership order
So we don’t have ... erm ... disorder

I’m running for PM 🙂

Regarding the lorry drivers, I do think it is possible. They get tested on a fortnightly basis and they are prioritised for vaccination. They are essential workers so must be allowed to move freely. Being double vaccinated and tested fortnightly gives a good degree of protection but it's not infallible. If a worker tests positive then obviously the test and trace system springs into action to shut down the chains of transmission. This is exactly how it works in NZ with people working at the border. As you say, it was touch and go when we had those 105 cases in the community initially. We had no choice but to lockdown as we had no contact tracing system in place then. Our government used the time spent in lockdown to mobilize our contact tracing system to be able to deal with any future outbreaks. Genomic sequencing has also proved invaluable here in keeping outbreaks under control. We have since had a few challenging outbreaks in Auckland but the contact tracing system has worked well each time to shut down the chains of transmission. Lockdowns are used only as a last resort when there are missing links in the chain or to buy contact tracers more time to get on top of the outbreak. But yes, you need to deal with borders properly in order for any of this to work. Free travel between countries just can't be an option if you want to follow this strategy.

@WuhanClanAintNothingToFuckWith

One of the scientific experts was speaking about this the other day. They pointed out that health is wealth - and wealth is health.

What was that an “economic poetic scientist” or something? I’ve never heard of one of them.

Health is wealth
And wealth is health
This is the plan
For all man
So follow it and we will win
And put this virus in the bin
Obey my leadership order
So we don’t have ... erm ... disorder

I’m running for PM 🙂

Made me laugh

They get tested on a fortnightly basis and they are prioritised for vaccination. They are essential workers so must be allowed to move freely. Being double vaccinated and tested fortnightly gives a good degree of protection but it's not infallible

The double vaccination is only recent though, so not last year. When we’re all double vaccinated here then I’m not sure what controls will be like at borders, do you know for NZ?

I think testing fortnightly would let cases in to the U.K. and if we were living normally in that time would spread quickly, and a bigger issue is it wouldn’t be as rare as in NZ so we’d have to react more often.

Out of interest who do your at risk people come into contact with and where have those people been?

That's the big question, what happens when we're all vaccinated? I am hopeful it will be safe to open our borders but we'll have to wait and see how effective vaccines are and hope enough people get vaccinated. We have thousands of border workers who are supposed to be tested fortnightly and are now all supposed to be fully vaccinated. I say supposed to be as there are flaws in the system and it doesn't always go to plan. This is how our outbreaks start when it leaks through the border. We have people working at airports, ports and MIQ facilities. These are the quarantine hotels where people entering the country are required to stay 2 weeks before being released into the community. So we're talking people who've arrived from all over the world. Any who test positive for covid are moved into a special quarantine facility. Every week we have positive cases coming through these hotels so all the workers dealing with them are at risk. In recent months we've had a couple of outbreaks in Auckland hotels due to poor ventilation systems. It was found that guests caught the virus in the corridors. It's an ongoing challenge keeping it out of the community and we can expect it to get out there again.

I presume, it depends on the types of genetic material it absorbs, and how unstable it's structure is and how often it's prone to mutating