How much further can covid mutate?

[Thelm]

I’m just wondering. Is there a limit as to how far a virus can mutate? Are we going to still be in a race to contain it in five years time?

I just don’t know how this will end.

@Cousinit

When it was clear things were going to shit in Italy. So February? Before the half term holidays. There was a thread on here around that time discussing this when people could clearly see what was going to happen and screaming why aren't the government doing anything? They should have closed the borders then.

So a month or so before NZ?

By closed borders do you mean to all road freight too and what would you do about NI / ROI

Tricky questions that the government would have had to grapple with, I agree. FYI in NZ we have never closed our borders to freight/goods coming in. Only overseas tourists. I get why the government didn't do it...it would have been such a shock and quite unthinkable really. Some people think our own government didnt act quickly enough. They began by just banning flights from China and Italy, when that didn't work they asked people coming from overseas to self isolate. And still the virus was spreading. It required a strong leader who was able to make an incredibly tough call. And forgive me but I dont think Boris is that leader.

@Cousinit

Tricky questions that the government would have had to grapple with, I agree. FYI in NZ we have never closed our borders to freight/goods coming in. Only overseas tourists. I get why the government didn't do it...it would have been such a shock and quite unthinkable really. Some people think our own government didnt act quickly enough. They began by just banning flights from China and Italy, when that didn't work they asked people coming from overseas to self isolate. And still the virus was spreading. It required a strong leader who was able to make an incredibly tough call. And forgive me but I dont think Boris is that leader.

Ok but when you say

FYI in NZ we have never closed our borders to freight/goods coming in

Isn’t it just sea ports / airplane not lorry drivers you’re talking about?

Automated removal of containers off planes or ships won’t pose same issues as drivers coming in as they would any land border. Unless I’m missing something?

I've heard this argument so many times and sorry I don't buy it. How do you explain a country like China following (and pretty much succeeding) with this strategy? And just to clarify, I really dont want to hide away from the world. I can't wait to get on a plane to Europe again to visit my family who I miss so much. That's why I'm hoping to see success with the UK's vaccination programme. It will give hope to all of us that this is our way out of this mess.

@Cousinit

I've heard this argument so many times and sorry I don't buy it. How do you explain a country like China following (and pretty much succeeding) with this strategy? And just to clarify, I really dont want to hide away from the world. I can't wait to get on a plane to Europe again to visit my family who I miss so much. That's why I'm hoping to see success with the UK's vaccination programme. It will give hope to all of us that this is our way out of this mess.

What argument?

Sorry that last comment was a reply to you, Sally

Sorry, I was replying to Sally's previous comment.

Just adding a Twitter thread from Katrina Lythgoe at Oxford:

twitter.com/katrina_lythgoe/status/1401489991990136834?s=12

Yes, of course we only have freight coming in planes and boats. But as a result of this (as well as passenger planes) we have a number of people coming into the country who are deemed a risk. This would be the same status for lorry drivers etc in the UK if they had closed borders. We have dealt with these workers by regularly testing them and now by vaccinating them. The UK could have done something similar presumably. Not sure why you are getting bogged down by this one point. Is it enough of a deal breaker to make you think closing the borders would have been a terrible idea?

I agree with you on China. They have a long way to go on transparency but I think it would have been difficult even for them to hide a continuing mass outbreak. And they are a communist country, making it easier for the population to comply with regulations. Not saying this is a positive thing but just a fact!

@Cousinit

Yes, of course we only have freight coming in planes and boats. But as a result of this (as well as passenger planes) we have a number of people coming into the country who are deemed a risk. This would be the same status for lorry drivers etc in the UK if they had closed borders. We have dealt with these workers by regularly testing them and now by vaccinating them. The UK could have done something similar presumably. Not sure why you are getting bogged down by this one point. Is it enough of a deal breaker to make you think closing the borders would have been a terrible idea?

Because it’s a big difference to have the amount of lorries we do versus none. You could see this when we had recent border issues with queues backing up. It’s a large amount. And people who talk about U.K. doing as NZ did seem to forget it easily.

I haven’t said it was a terrible idea, more I’m not convinced it was possible. Due to timing on the curve and NI / ROI plus freight. What would you do about the other issue?

Also whenever people say NZ acted early it was early on their curve but 105 cases late March just shows the huge difference in timing. 105 cases for us including asymptomatic would have been close to when the WHO were very much not advocating border closures, and at the very beginning we listened. Also people blame the government but SAGE minutes show general scientific advice.

Plus much easier to use ROW as political back up on what to do in late March.

So not really terrible, just ignoring big differences between two - mostly timing.

Fair point and I can see that it would have been incrediblly difficult due to logistical issues like this. Maybe it would never have been possible but perhaps compromises or solutions could have been found to make it possible. A lot of lives could have been saved.

OP "If it is just going to keep mutating and we end up stuck in this seemingly never ending cycle of lockdowns then I feel like we may as well just get on with things"

Thank you for answering the question.

I agree. I was never a supporter of lockdown but thought things like work from home made sense. Small measures that weren't too disruptive but reduced things like crowded public transport. I'd have supported border closures too.

But viruses mutate, what's going on here is crazy. victoria, Australia are legally told to wear masks outside!

Feels like we've come full circle now in this discussion and I feel thoroughly depressed. What a mess the world is in

I think if we don’t get the vaccine evading version it’ll get better quite quickly. As restrictions will lift, travel is a bit trickier but we’ll see. Feels never ending here but population is quite close

@strangeshapedpotato

Effectively forever, and because covid spreads easily during its incubation period, there is NO evolutionary pressure on it to evolve into a milder form. The ONLY selective factor is that variants that evade the immune system more successfully will win. Becoming a milder virus is not really on the cards.

Covid is a much more serious disease than influenza, and even flu can kill a LOT of people - the Spanish Flu variant of flu wiped out a good chunk of the world's population.

"Living with it" is quite simply not an option we should be considering. As long as the virus is spreading through a population, it will evolve to defeat any existing immunity, whether "natural" or "vaccine" acquired. Boosters are likely to have gradually less and less effect - training the human immune system is easy, but retraining it - somewhat harder.

"Living with it" means a world with a substantially reduced life expectancy. Significantly more spending on health care (i.e. higher taxes). And years in which lockdowns are required due to a more severe than usual strain circulating. Personally I want to avoid this future, but the sad lack of foresight and discipline across Western countries is making it inevitable.

Thank fuck I’m already 48, this greatly reduced life expectancy is looking appealing

Let’s remember Chris Whitty said he had faith in the ability of science to beat infectious diseases and he’s not exactly been Mr Optimism.

If there are prizes for the most depressing post then I'll pop in with this one...

If Avian Flu ever jumps across to humans and mutates to be able to pass from human to human the modelling predicts a 75% fatality rate. Compared to roughly 1% for COVID.

So yeah.

We actually are on tenterhooks about flu within certain circles.

@wheresmymojo

If there are prizes for the most depressing post then I'll pop in with this one...

If Avian Flu ever jumps across to humans and mutates to be able to pass from human to human the modelling predicts a 75% fatality rate. Compared to roughly 1% for COVID.

So yeah.

We actually are on tenterhooks about flu within certain circles.

An excellent reason to crack on normally while we can.

After catching up with the rest of the thread I'd say it's an excellent reason not to waste any more of my life reading Sally's posts.

It's a shame as it was such an interesting thread before someone with clearly very little knowledge waded in to start a bunfight.

In that dangerous place of enough knowledge to sound vaguely plausible to anyone who doesn't know more but actually only very surface level knowledge so quite often has misinterpreted or misunderstood things they've read.

Which is fine, if you don't then pretend to be something you're not (supremely knowledgeable on this topic).