I can’t bear the thought of another full lockdown but it seems inevitable

[cantfaceitalloveragain]

I’ve only just this week been allowed to see sister without social distancing, as she lives in residential care, had a lovely meal and a big hug but at the end all I could think was, will it be another year before we can meet again? She’s been hugely, horribly affected by this virus - she’s dreadfully ill through anxiety - and has been only just told this week she can see two relatives and one friend, and she might be allowed back to day care services the end of this month - first time since Feb 2020 .

I can’t bear the thought of another year indoors, no haircuts, no socialising, no shopping, no travel, no seeing sister or friends or family ...

I live in a tiny village with shit public transport that was largely stoped over both lockdowns ... can’t bear another year in this three mile square and relying on online delivery and zoom ... GP rang this morning and even yapping to her I thought, how lovely it would be to see someone else face to face - most friends and family are still heavily avoiding all socialising, this is my experience of most people now that there’s a lot of fear and anxiety around covid .

I realise restrictions are necessary and probably inevitable, and things could be so so much worse - but I’m struggling so much now . Finding I’m dreading getting out of bed as I keep thinking, what’s coming next?

@roarfeckingroarr

I don't care anymore and will not follow further lockdown rules. The most vulnerable have been vaccinated; we have had enough.

Me too. Otherwise my vaccinations seem a bit pointless.

I wish I lived in one of these countries that closed their borders. Of course there are tiny outbreaks and a few cases get in, even there.

Like Australia? Where Victoria is in yet another lockdown due to an outbreak of the Kappa variant and hardly anyone is vaccinated? No ta.

What are your amazing “low level restrictions” NannyJohn and how do they differ from the relatively significant restrictions we still currently have?

@twilightermummy

Perhaps I’m thick or my head is spinning in all the lies and confusion from the government and media, but if cases are developing amongst the young, and the young are less likely to die or be hospitalised then what’s the huge panic? Yes I understand variants may develop which will over ride the vaccine but I’m still not convinced with that.

A mum of four from my child’s school got a blood clot on her lung after having the AZ vaccination, she’s only 43. I think the government do need to explain themselves as it was unlikely she would have been as ill as that from covid.

The more it spreads the more people it gets to that it can make seriously ill. Of all ages. It's a numbers game.

A lad on Twitter makes graphs out of the government data,

The purple segments are covid deaths aged 40-49.

The red sections are covid deaths of people aged 30-39

The bright green are covid deaths in the 20-29

And the orange section is a covid death in the 10-19 age group.

The more deaths overall, the more deaths in all age groups. But there is a doubt over whether this variant is better adapted to infect young people given that countries with very little vaccine coverage are seeing proportionally higher levels of younger people in hospital with it.

@Bluntness100

Op,I think you’ve misunderstood? Lockdowns are to prevent the nhs being breached, not to eradicate Covid. The amount of cases is now a minor indicator, it’s hospitalisations and deaths. These are both still declining. As such there is no indications of any further lock downs.

YES!

@NannyAndJohn

To anyone wondering why things are up the shitter despite the vaccine (warning - mathematics ahead!):

Old Covid had an R of approximately 3.

The Kent Variant had increased transmissibility of approximately 60% over Old Covid, giving it an R of 3 x 1.6 = 4.8.

The Indian Variant (Delta) has increased transmissibility of approximately 60% over the Kent Variant, giving it an R of 4.8 x 1.6 = 7.68.

40.2% of the UK population have now had their second dose, which is approximately 80% effective against Delta.

19.7% of the UK population have had their first dose only, which is approximately 33% effective against Delta.

The overall vaccine effect therefore gives a reduction in R of (0.402 x 0.8) + (0.197 x 0.33) = 0.387.

Putting all of this together, the current R of Delta + vaccines is

7.68 x (1 - 0.387) = 4.71.

So we're currently in a significantly worse position than we were in March 2020.

Yeah, so we are

Give it a rest honestly

Your maths doesn’t account for the vaccines stopping serious illness and death in those vaccinated.

@PlumpAndDeliciousFatcat

I wish I lived in one of these countries that closed their borders. Of course there are tiny outbreaks and a few cases get in, even there.

Like Australia? Where Victoria is in yet another lockdown due to an outbreak of the Kappa variant and hardly anyone is vaccinated? No ta.

You think they're all happy with that? A lot of them are bloody furious because they're using this as a blunt tool rather than stepping up the vaccination programme. At any rate, try to emigrate to one of those places since they're so great.

[quote GreenFingersWouldBeHandy]@Waxonwaxoff0

I will, yep. I'm having my vaccines, I'm not doing anything more now regarding social distancing

um. OK, you're alright then. You do realise you can still spread it and that the vaccine is not 100% effective? But carry on. Fuck everyone else.[/quote]
So you just expect us all to sit twiddling our thumbs at home after 12+ months of this shit? Fuck that.

Well yes, that was my point @osbertthesyrianhamster. Did you want @LedByFools?

"So personally I think it would be more sensible for the government to do what they said they would do which is look at the data, and perhaps open up more gradually."

Wouldn't it make more sense to have restrictions only in the areas with the rise in cases? Why punish everyone?

@NannyAndJohn please stop using statistics (dodgy Nanny doing a bit of maths to impress everyone statistics) which do not give the whole picture.

@nordica

Quite frankly what helps to cause non compliance in further lockdowns is comments minimizing the sacrifices we have already made. Why the fuck would/should people comply with yet another one when their efforts and sacrifices are treated like nothing and minimized and history is rewritten and people are gaslighted e,g, the "we are in this mess because no one complied over Christmas" bollocks. Rubbishing and minimizing the sacrifices ppl made in the past is what ensures non compliance in the future.
Look at Hancock and his "dont blow it now" bollocks Boris said the same. News reports saying that the reason so many ppl are in hospital is because they are breaking the rules. Its already been proved that whatever the public do and whatever the public sacrifice it will never be enough. Blame blame and more blame despite the fact they got 95% compliance. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me!

@Missillusioned

There are lots of diseases that are arguably nastier than Covid but we don't lockdown for them because we vaccinate.

Measle for example. Very very infectious, kills and maims. We do still have periodic outbreaks but vaccines contain it.

Why won't Covid be the same?

Measles doesn't mutate at the same rate as covid. It also has symptoms so people are aware they are infected and generally stay home. Also everyone is eligible for vaccination. Do you need more good reasons why they are not comparable?

It’s not about public health, it’s about control.
Cases don’t mean illnesses or that hospitals are any busier.
Besides, now the vulnerable are now vaccinated. Are they telling us vaccines don’t work?

I don’t understand what the point would be of another lockdown.

Lockdown while we waited for vaccinations like in Jan onwards 2021 made sense. Then when lockdown is reversed and the virus runs rampant, the vulnerable are vaccinated and lives are saved.

Lockdown without vaccinations, or with vaccinations already mostly completed and another lockdown anyway, I don’t understand. All it does it postpone the inevitable and in the meantime close more businesses and cost more people more money.

I don’t know, vulnerable or not, that would want another lockdown now. What will be will be. Delta variant will be replaced with another one in a few months and so it will go on forever.

So we're currently in a significantly worse position than we were in March 2020.

And we’re officially jumping the shark with this bollocks. 🤦‍♀️

@RedcurrantPuff

Your maths doesn’t account for the vaccines stopping serious illness and death in those vaccinated.

Yep

And if so then those stats should stop being wheeled out as per pp

[quote GreenFingersWouldBeHandy]@Waxonwaxoff0

I will, yep. I'm having my vaccines, I'm not doing anything more now regarding social distancing

um. OK, you're alright then. You do realise you can still spread it and that the vaccine is not 100% effective? But carry on. Fuck everyone else.[/quote]
So you expect everyone to social distance forever then?

Yes, I'll carry on. Quite honestly I'm done putting everyone else before myself.

@RedcurrantPuff

What are your amazing “low level restrictions” NannyJohn and how do they differ from the relatively significant restrictions we still currently have?

Indoor mixing should be knocked on the head ASAP. Luckily with summer on the horizon all of this can be done outside anyway, so shouldn't be too restrictive.

@TheKeatingFive

So we're currently in a significantly worse position than we were in March 2020.

And we’re officially jumping the shark with this bollocks. 🤦‍♀️

Also at variance with what Devi Sridhar said

'It’s not about public health, it’s about control.Cases don’t mean illnesses or that hospitals are any busier. Besides, now the vulnerable are now vaccinated. Are they telling us vaccines don’t work?'

I'm guessing with different variants it'll be a case of learning as we go along.

As everyone says increasing cases does not equal increasing hospitalisations. Fingers crossed..

I don’t follow all the maths @NannyAndJohn, I’d be interested if you can explain a bit more.

You start off with R as a measure of transmissibility, but then adjust it with figures relating to symptomatic disease reduction which is different so already I am a bit lost

@NannyAndJohn

Yep, it's coming.

Cases doubling every four days means we'll hit 100,000 a day by the 21st June.

Best we all accept that we'll be spending the rest of the year in lockdown instead of sticking our heads in the sand and pretending that everything's okay.

I've taken a screenshot of this to look back on in 3 weeks and show you what utter nonsense you were talking. I hope you have the good grace not to NC before then

@NannyAndJohn you’re good thanks, I’ll continue indoor mixing.