I can’t bear the thought of another full lockdown but it seems inevitable

[cantfaceitalloveragain]

I’ve only just this week been allowed to see sister without social distancing, as she lives in residential care, had a lovely meal and a big hug but at the end all I could think was, will it be another year before we can meet again? She’s been hugely, horribly affected by this virus - she’s dreadfully ill through anxiety - and has been only just told this week she can see two relatives and one friend, and she might be allowed back to day care services the end of this month - first time since Feb 2020 .

I can’t bear the thought of another year indoors, no haircuts, no socialising, no shopping, no travel, no seeing sister or friends or family ...

I live in a tiny village with shit public transport that was largely stoped over both lockdowns ... can’t bear another year in this three mile square and relying on online delivery and zoom ... GP rang this morning and even yapping to her I thought, how lovely it would be to see someone else face to face - most friends and family are still heavily avoiding all socialising, this is my experience of most people now that there’s a lot of fear and anxiety around covid .

I realise restrictions are necessary and probably inevitable, and things could be so so much worse - but I’m struggling so much now . Finding I’m dreading getting out of bed as I keep thinking, what’s coming next?

I've taken a screenshot of this to look back on in 3 weeks and show you what utter nonsense you were talking. I hope you have the good grace not to NC before then grin

Oh It's not nonsense. It has been backed up by some really (il)logical maths...

@BoomChicka I'd happily admit it on the off chance that I turn out be incorrect.

Shame that those who were saying in March 2020 "it's just flu" and those who were saying in August 2020 "it's all over" weren't willing to admit that they were wrong.

[quote NannyAndJohn]@BoomChicka I'd happily admit it on the off chance that I turn out be incorrect.

Shame that those who were saying in March 2020 "it's just flu" and those who were saying in August 2020 "it's all over" weren't willing to admit that they were wrong.[/quote]
Can you at least consider your maths against comments

If it’s incorrect then will you adjust how sure you are?

NannyAndJohn

This doesn’t take into account serval things-

1. immunity from having had the virus. Almost 0% in Feb/March 2020 but above 25% now. Obviously some of this % will be in the vaccinated cohort but many won’t be (we know it’s not evenly distributed and a 20 year old is way more likely to have had CV than your average 70 year old) so the unvaccinated population has some decent degree of immunity.

2. Can’t fall into the trap of assuming exponential growth forever. The U.K. has a finite population and there is a herd immunity threshold obviously. All previous lockdowns happened a few days / week or two after the natural peak. There is a maximum amount of people who will ever have the virus at one point. If you just scare people with the doubling every 2 weeks this you logically get to the point that millions will contract it daily within a few months which is impossible.

3. 80% efficacy at contracting CV. What matters is the efficiency at reducing hospitalisations. Back a year a go the goal was a vaccine that reduced hosputalizations and deaths only. The fact that we have vaccines that stop one even contracting a mild Covid is amazing and beyond what the goal was. I don’t agree that we are in a worse position. The natural R rate might be higher but if twice as many infections as last spring result in half as many deaths, we are in a much better position.

@woodfort

NannyAndJohn

This doesn’t take into account serval things-

1. immunity from having had the virus. Almost 0% in Feb/March 2020 but above 25% now. Obviously some of this % will be in the vaccinated cohort but many won’t be (we know it’s not evenly distributed and a 20 year old is way more likely to have had CV than your average 70 year old) so the unvaccinated population has some decent degree of immunity.

2. Can’t fall into the trap of assuming exponential growth forever. The U.K. has a finite population and there is a herd immunity threshold obviously. All previous lockdowns happened a few days / week or two after the natural peak. There is a maximum amount of people who will ever have the virus at one point. If you just scare people with the doubling every 2 weeks this you logically get to the point that millions will contract it daily within a few months which is impossible.

3. 80% efficacy at contracting CV. What matters is the efficiency at reducing hospitalisations. Back a year a go the goal was a vaccine that reduced hosputalizations and deaths only. The fact that we have vaccines that stop one even contracting a mild Covid is amazing and beyond what the goal was. I don’t agree that we are in a worse position. The natural R rate might be higher but if twice as many infections as last spring result in half as many deaths, we are in a much better position.

Using the wild assumption that the 25% haven't been vaccinated yet, the R would still be 4.71 x (1 - 0.25) = 3.53.

The current herd immunity threshold is 1 - 1/7.68 = 87% of the population double vaccinated.

Twice as many infections means twice as many getting Long Covid and twice the chance of a more severe variant emerging.

3) Twice as many infections means twice as many getting Long Covid and twice the chance of a more severe variant emerging.

Does this above, address this?

3. 80% efficacy at contracting CV. What matters is the efficiency at reducing hospitalisations.

@MarshaBradyo

3) Twice as many infections means twice as many getting Long Covid and twice the chance of a more severe variant emerging.

Does this above, address this?

3. 80% efficacy at contracting CV. What matters is the efficiency at reducing hospitalisations.

True but with half the population unvaccinated, % will be hospitalised. That will overwhelm the system between that, people in which for whatever reason the vaccination has not worked. In the elderly they may need a booster now. This is still enough to overwhelm.

Those of you who say if there's another lockdown I'll ignore it are living on a different planet to me.

I'm a farmer producing a foodstuff 95% of the population put in their supermarket trolley each week. If you couldn't buy what I produce you'd be very worried our country was falling apart. With both of the last lockdowns both us and our staff removed our children from school early because we cannot afford to get ill. I believe with the three lockdowns we've had so far, not only have they been about protecting the nhs but also about our basic services. As much as I feel for the travel and hospitality being scuppered

What is it with these same three or four posters appearing on every thread telling everyone we are fucked and going into another lockdown. What’s driving it?

Ignorance? Anxiety? Enjoying the drama of it? Can’t grasp it? Living their best life in lock down and need it? Are isolated and feel better when everyone else is? Enjoy fear mongering?

It’s honestly the oddest thing ever and hard to grasp what’s behind it. Whatever it is though it’s illogical and unhealthy.

Also, have any if you been to hospital recently. They are already struggling with the back log, yet alone another covid wave.

@Bluntness100

What is it with these same three or four posters appearing on every thread telling everyone we are fucked and going into another lockdown. What’s driving it?

Ignorance? Anxiety? Enjoying the drama of it? Can’t grasp it? Living their best life in lock down and need it? Are isolated and feel better when everyone else is? Enjoy fear mongering?

It’s honestly the oddest thing ever and hard to grasp what’s behind it. Whatever it is though it’s illogical and unhealthy.

You're insane. Level of denial is through the roof. Come back and say that in a few weeks.

As its so serious i assume the MPs will be working to solve this through the summer instead of going on their usual summer recess which they did do last year when there were no vaccines.

Don't assume anything about MPs. Useless the lot of them

I've taken a screenshot of this to look back on in 3 weeks and show you what utter nonsense you were talking. I hope you have the good grace not to NC before then

Oh they’ll name change alright.

[quote GreenFingersWouldBeHandy]@Waxonwaxoff0

I will, yep. I'm having my vaccines, I'm not doing anything more now regarding social distancing

um. OK, you're alright then. You do realise you can still spread it and that the vaccine is not 100% effective? But carry on. Fuck everyone else.[/quote]
Did you yourself live in permanent lockdown up to 2019 to avoid spreading flu or chicken pox?

You're insane. Level of denial is through the roof. Come back and say that in a few weeks

Oh you can bet your house I will.

Ok good luck with that.

@MercyBooth

As its so serious i assume the MPs will be working to solve this through the summer instead of going on their usual summer recess which they did do last year when there were no vaccines.

Aside from the PM, the Chancellor and the Health Secretary, how exactly do you think that MPs can work to solve Covid?!

Comparing chicken pox and flu to covid. God, are we not over that yet. What is wrong with you???? Have you not learned anything in the last year?!

"it does it postpone the inevitable and in the meantime close more businesses and cost more people more money."
Not if we lockdown forevermore. Which seems to be the preferred solution for many.
In case anyone can't see the sarcasm, I agree. We locked down. Very clever people developed vaccines. We got the vaccines. Now it's time to live our lives again*. Some people will get ill and sadly die. Why didn't we care about this until 2019?

• slowly and carefully. I am happy to stick to restrictions even those I grumble about. Not happy to live a half life indefinately.

True but with half the population unvaccinated, % will be hospitalised.

Yes so the maths should use this %?

Otherwise it’s not nearly correct

@StealthPolarBear

"it does it postpone the inevitable and in the meantime close more businesses and cost more people more money." Not if we lockdown forevermore. Which seems to be the preferred solution for many. In case anyone can't see the sarcasm, I agree. We locked down. Very clever people developed vaccines. We got the vaccines. Now it's time to live our lives again*. Some people will get ill and sadly die. Why didn't we care about this until 2019? * slowly and carefully. I am happy to stick to restrictions even those I grumble about. Not happy to live a half life indefinately.

Do you also have problems seeing past the end of your own nose?

Excuse my ignorance but what I don't get is the same posters repeatedly reiterating both the increased infection rate and the ongoing lack of herd immunity. Surely the two things can't be simultaneously true?

1) Using the wild assumption that the 25% haven't been vaccinated yet, the R would still be 4.71 x (1 - 0.25) = 3.53.

It’s not a “wild” assumption. If you assume 25% have natural immunity anyway (although I believe it was some time a go that 25% was estimated so it will be a bit higher now) that’s probably more like 15% in the 65+ age group and 30+% in the 5-30 year old agree groups. So let’s say 30% of the unvaccinated population have immunity with 80% efficacy at contracting it and likely 90% at preventing serious illness.

2) The current herd immunity threshold is 1 - 1/7.68 = 87% of the population double vaccinated.

I agree, but the point still holds that exponential growth has a natural peak and cannot continue for too long. That’s just bad maths. I remember people in business schools make similarly poor miscalculations when they assume long term growth rates for companies that are above the long term GDP growth rate.... ie eventually the company swallows up the country. Same logic here. Let’s look at when the infection rate peaked previously.
I’m not contesting that the numbers could look a lot worse quite quickly but I am contesting the lazy assumption that infections go up exponentially long term or even medium term. The question is, where is the natural peak and how many deaths will that be now given vaccinations?

3) Twice as many infections means twice as many getting Long Covid and twice the chance of a more severe variant emerging.

Source for this?

So vaccinations have little effect on reducing long Covid? This is the first I’m hearing of this. Those who get the virus despite vaccination tend to get milder versions. Long Covid is not a mild version.

Re: more severe variants. I don’t quite understand this I’m afraid. Even if we somehow achieved to keep levels as they were 2 or 3 weeks a go forever - which would be great- globally this would be a drop in the ocean. If a more severe variant emerges elsewhere we will inevitably get it here anyway - and then we just go back to vaccines (how well do they work / boosters / tweaks in the vaccine if possible?/ timeframes for all of this?). Unless we lock down all travel including for business and import purposes etc I can’t really get my head around the idea that our local rates in the U.K. have really that much bearing on the variants.
We are going to have to accept that variants will emerge continuously and I’d like to hear more from the vaccine manufacturers about plans and their expectations.

@NannyAndJohn

To anyone wondering why things are up the shitter despite the vaccine (warning - mathematics ahead!):

Old Covid had an R of approximately 3.

The Kent Variant had increased transmissibility of approximately 60% over Old Covid, giving it an R of 3 x 1.6 = 4.8.

The Indian Variant (Delta) has increased transmissibility of approximately 60% over the Kent Variant, giving it an R of 4.8 x 1.6 = 7.68.

40.2% of the UK population have now had their second dose, which is approximately 80% effective against Delta.

19.7% of the UK population have had their first dose only, which is approximately 33% effective against Delta.

The overall vaccine effect therefore gives a reduction in R of (0.402 x 0.8) + (0.197 x 0.33) = 0.387.

Putting all of this together, the current R of Delta + vaccines is

7.68 x (1 - 0.387) = 4.71.

So we're currently in a significantly worse position than we were in March 2020.

Well you can prove anything with facts, can't you?