I can’t bear the thought of another full lockdown but it seems inevitable

[cantfaceitalloveragain]

I’ve only just this week been allowed to see sister without social distancing, as she lives in residential care, had a lovely meal and a big hug but at the end all I could think was, will it be another year before we can meet again? She’s been hugely, horribly affected by this virus - she’s dreadfully ill through anxiety - and has been only just told this week she can see two relatives and one friend, and she might be allowed back to day care services the end of this month - first time since Feb 2020 .

I can’t bear the thought of another year indoors, no haircuts, no socialising, no shopping, no travel, no seeing sister or friends or family ...

I live in a tiny village with shit public transport that was largely stoped over both lockdowns ... can’t bear another year in this three mile square and relying on online delivery and zoom ... GP rang this morning and even yapping to her I thought, how lovely it would be to see someone else face to face - most friends and family are still heavily avoiding all socialising, this is my experience of most people now that there’s a lot of fear and anxiety around covid .

I realise restrictions are necessary and probably inevitable, and things could be so so much worse - but I’m struggling so much now . Finding I’m dreading getting out of bed as I keep thinking, what’s coming next?

I just cannot see another lockdown by any stretch of the imagination. I really think that people would rebel. What would the point be in the vaccine and how would they explain that?! Plus, after yesterday’s announcement, I think the public have lost the last of their fine thread of patience. It’s too much. If the vaccine doesn’t work, we need to learn to live with it because if there isn’t an exit plan then what’s the point in this life?

Not that I am frightened, just don't want the government to have to impose another lockdown.
Not scare-mongering, but the latest research does suggest that the Nepal variant (mutation of the indian one) does show some escape from the Pfizer vaccine, which is the vaccine all the front-line NHS staff who will treat those with the Nepal variant were given.
I am only worried for those NHS staff and their poor bloody families.

Everybody loves to criticise but never provides answers .

As cases are going up now , we won’t really know fully about serious illness / hospital admissions for another 10 days or so .

So personally I think it would be more sensible for the government to do what they said they would do which is look at the data, and perhaps open up more gradually.

So what could we all do which will reduce risk ( we can’t eliminate it )

Not everyone going back to work at once
Don’t increase large gatherings unless outside
Mixing of households is unfortunately the highest risk ( because of close contact within families ) so perhaps have bubbles but not as restricted as before . And ones that are clear to understand.

Personal responsibility with guidance I would love to see , but unfortunately I don’t think people will do it … but if you are visiting family or friends do a test and be aware in your group who are the most likely spreaders

It appears at the moment the highest risk group are those that are eligible for the vaccine but have not had it . So keep pushing the facts about the vaccine . I have a feeling a lot of people in their 30s are just going to take a risk and not have the vaccine perhaps there should be more publicity about the effects of long covid ?

@LedByFools

I agree with you OP and I hate this government for their useful border control. I wish I lived in one of these countries that closed their borders. Of course there are tiny outbreaks and a few cases get in, even there. But that is a very different situation to cases rising exponentially day by day in the UK at the same time as some stupid idiotic lowest-common-denominator 'freedom day' crap is being promoted by sectors who can make some money (on top being largely financially supported by the government anyway at the moment).

Those 'sectors who can make some money' are peoples' livelihoods. You know, the thing that keeps a roof over their heads, food on the table etc. Surely you don't think the government can keep bailing businesses out forever.

And Portugal has the Nepal variant (different to indian one, a mutation of it).
So it was really effing stupid to let the largest mass movement of UK citizens take place to Portugal last week, even if Michael Gove wanted to go.

@OhGodNotThisAgain

Your fear mongering isn’t working anymore. Zero Covid deaths the other day even if you’re shouting the Indian variant is killing everyone.

It was great wasn't it?

It would be nice to have zero covid deaths every day.

I don't understand the scaremongering part though.

There is so much black and white thinking on this thread.
The vaccines work fully or they don't work at all.
If hospitalizations rise deaths will rise.

No one on this thread has any idea what will happen. But the press are reporting that the Pfizer vaccine works less well against the Delta variant. What less well means I have no idea, but it could be worrying.

The press are also reporting that it appears the Delta variant leads to more hospitalizations but only slightly more deaths. If most are unvaccinated so younger then that is not surprising. Those people will be generally healthy. But it could still mean hospitals full and operations cancelled.

WHO said at the very beginning that this would last for two years and that it would take people everyone in countries with a lot of international travel being vaccinated. We are not safe until the countries British people routinely travel to are also vaccinated.

• largest mass movement of UK citizens since the start of the pandemic, that is, to clarify.

There are lots of diseases that are arguably nastier than Covid but we don't lockdown for them because we vaccinate.

Measle for example. Very very infectious, kills and maims. We do still have periodic outbreaks but vaccines contain it.

Why won't Covid be the same?

@twilightermummy

The government don’t have to explain about the vaccine

They always explained you can still catch and pass on covid , it’s just greatly reduced risk .
Unfortunately no one in the worls at the moment can control the variants that keep popping up everywhere . And each one takes time to evaluate .
So if you panic and lock down you are wrong , if you don’t act and it’s a more dangerous variant you are wrong as well .

@PinkSparklyPussyCat everytime there is another lockdown other businesses fail instead. The government keep opening up everything so businesses can make money. It leads to a lockdown, and businesses that were managing with restrictions end up folding.

I am going out this weekend to enjoy myself. I suspect I may not be able to in a few weeks time. So taking the opportunity while I have the chance.

@HeronLanyon

I’ve only just read today’s figures and news about them. Awful sinking feeling. At the same time I can hear out of my window local restaurants with people outside laughing etc. May go watch something lighthearted - seem to want to distract my mind right now.

I've been outvoted. We're all going to watch a dreadful looking action movie about zombies in Las Vegas.

Hope you find a better distraction than me.

@shakingstevensfan

There is so much black and white thinking on this thread. The vaccines work fully or they don't work at all. If hospitalizations rise deaths will rise.

No one on this thread has any idea what will happen. But the press are reporting that the Pfizer vaccine works less well against the Delta variant. What less well means I have no idea, but it could be worrying.

The press are also reporting that it appears the Delta variant leads to more hospitalizations but only slightly more deaths. If most are unvaccinated so younger then that is not surprising. Those people will be generally healthy. But it could still mean hospitals full and operations cancelled.

WHO said at the very beginning that this would last for two years and that it would take people everyone in countries with a lot of international travel being vaccinated. We are not safe until the countries British people routinely travel to are also vaccinated.

PHE says there is currently “no data” on the vaccines’ ability to prevent severe illness from the Indian variant.

Symptomatic illness could be as little as feeling slightly under the weather

@shakingstevensfan

Good post . You are correct there is in many cases no definite right or wrong answer to all of this .

Just imagine if we did not have the genome testing and data that we have .

This is such an unpredictable virus . And you are right even if learn to cope and live with it the whole world has to do the same .

Life is never black and white .

Why is it inevitable?

Why do people on here shit themselves at every blip?

Only on MN do people consider a lockdown the default measure.

We will only have a lockdown if the vaccines fail, hospitalisations rise and people start dying again.

Rising case numbers don't matter if people don't need to go to hospital and don't die of it.

Time for life to go on.

Perhaps I’m thick or my head is spinning in all the lies and confusion from the government and media, but if cases are developing amongst the young, and the young are less likely to die or be hospitalised then what’s the huge panic? Yes I understand variants may develop which will over ride the vaccine but I’m still not convinced with that.

A mum of four from my child’s school got a blood clot on her lung after having the AZ vaccination, she’s only 43. I think the government do need to explain themselves as it was unlikely she would have been as ill as that from covid.

@Waxonwaxoff0

I will, yep. I'm having my vaccines, I'm not doing anything more now regarding social distancing

um. OK, you're alright then. You do realise you can still spread it and that the vaccine is not 100% effective? But carry on. Fuck everyone else.

@NannyAndJohn

Yep, it's coming.

Cases doubling every four days means we'll hit 100,000 a day by the 21st June.

Best we all accept that we'll be spending the rest of the year in lockdown instead of sticking our heads in the sand and pretending that everything's okay.

This.

But also agree to enjoy the freedom now whilst sticking to the rules, mask wearing, SD and just generally being sensible. I learned the hard way last year by not enjoying the summer freedom and nearly gave myself a nervous breakdown. Have a break booked in July and going to go and enjoy it after which we'll probably be in lockdown again

@jesusmaryjosephandtheweedonkey

If we lockdown again then someone will have to explain what the point of a vaccine is. I certainly won't be sticking to any new lockdown rules

Same here

I can’t go to places that are shut but I’ll be seeing friends and family whenever I like. Couldn’t give 2 fucks about coronavirus any more frankly. If I get it I get it. No ones health or long life is guaranteed.

To anyone wondering why things are up the shitter despite the vaccine (warning - mathematics ahead!):

Old Covid had an R of approximately 3.

The Kent Variant had increased transmissibility of approximately 60% over Old Covid, giving it an R of 3 x 1.6 = 4.8.

The Indian Variant (Delta) has increased transmissibility of approximately 60% over the Kent Variant, giving it an R of 4.8 x 1.6 = 7.68.

40.2% of the UK population have now had their second dose, which is approximately 80% effective against Delta.

19.7% of the UK population have had their first dose only, which is approximately 33% effective against Delta.

The overall vaccine effect therefore gives a reduction in R of (0.402 x 0.8) + (0.197 x 0.33) = 0.387.

Putting all of this together, the current R of Delta + vaccines is

7.68 x (1 - 0.387) = 4.71.

So we're currently in a significantly worse position than we were in March 2020.

I don't care anymore and will not follow further lockdown rules. The most vulnerable have been vaccinated; we have had enough.

*Measle for example. Very very infectious, kills and maims. We do still have periodic outbreaks but vaccines contain it.

Why won't Covid be the same?*

Measles is a stable virus, it doesn’t mutate.

Covid mutates like mad.

I think it's really unlikely there would be a full lockdown again. This time last year public mood was really different and people seemed to genuinely care about protecting others and doing their bit. That's completely gone now.

It also seems unlikely hospitals would be as overwhelmed as they were before, although there's no doubt other treatments will be affected even if there are smaller numbers of covid patients in hospitals because it limits the number of beds available for cancer surgeries etc. Healthcare staff is mostly vaccinated now though and that will help a lot.

I really don't think there should be a "freedom day" later this month, though. There's a lot of middle ground between a lockdown and no restrictions at all.