I can’t bear the thought of another full lockdown but it seems inevitable

[cantfaceitalloveragain]

I’ve only just this week been allowed to see sister without social distancing, as she lives in residential care, had a lovely meal and a big hug but at the end all I could think was, will it be another year before we can meet again? She’s been hugely, horribly affected by this virus - she’s dreadfully ill through anxiety - and has been only just told this week she can see two relatives and one friend, and she might be allowed back to day care services the end of this month - first time since Feb 2020 .

I can’t bear the thought of another year indoors, no haircuts, no socialising, no shopping, no travel, no seeing sister or friends or family ...

I live in a tiny village with shit public transport that was largely stoped over both lockdowns ... can’t bear another year in this three mile square and relying on online delivery and zoom ... GP rang this morning and even yapping to her I thought, how lovely it would be to see someone else face to face - most friends and family are still heavily avoiding all socialising, this is my experience of most people now that there’s a lot of fear and anxiety around covid .

I realise restrictions are necessary and probably inevitable, and things could be so so much worse - but I’m struggling so much now . Finding I’m dreading getting out of bed as I keep thinking, what’s coming next?

@NannyAndJohn If you read a bit further you will find that Neil Furguson settles on around 60% which isn't 100%

[quote PaulGallico]@NannyAndJohn If you read a bit further you will find that Neil Furguson settles on around 60% which isn't 100%[/quote]
Still worse than the previous worse case scenario of 50%.

And the figure I thought was most likely too. Hence I based my analysis on it. And people thought I was way off.

We need 87% fully vaccinated to control Delta without reintroducing restrictions.

We have 40%.

Which, looking on the bright side (if it's allowed), is 40% more than last year.

@RaspberryCoulis

It's like groundhog day on here with the same three or four people popping into every thread with their doomsday scenarios.

Saying "oh but only 40% of people are fully vaccinated" while simultaneously ignoring the fact that the 40% who are vaccinated are the most vulnerable.

Ignoring the fact that cases don't matter as long as those don't translate into hospitalisations.

Pulling maths and stuff about variants being more transmissible out of their arses without any real evidence that what they are saying is true.

Chucking in the odd "sadly" or "i'm afraid" to make it look like they are nice people really.

As with many other people on this thread I will not be locking down again. Obviously you can't break into shops or bars which aren't open, but I doubt they will do that anyway. I will be seeing friends, and relatives. Especially my parents who have become increasingly isolated over the past year, my dad has some form of dementia as yet undiagnosed as the GP won't see him. Mum needs my support and to see her grandchildren. There are lots of things more important than Covid.

Some posters seem totally unable to accept that Covid is not ever going away, and that we are always going to see cases in the same was as we see cases of lots of other diseases.

Absolutely this! Agree with every word 👏 There is no way I won't be seeing my friends and family again. I am getting dressed up and going out to drink cocktails with my best friend today and can't wait!! Some people on here need to try having some fun rather than spending all day looking at covid graphs.

@PinkSparklyPussyCat

Which, looking on the bright side (if it's allowed), is 40% more than last year.

If it wasn't for the Variants we'd be pretty much home and dry by now.

But Johnson let Old Covid rip. And hence the Kent Variant was created. And then the Indian Variant. And who knows what will become of the Vietnam Variant and the Nepal Variant?

There is a real ramp up of get jabbed and get tested messages this morning along with another new slew of restrictions that may stay in place post ‘freedom day’ . If masks and social distancing remains I’m not sure what actually will be lifted and it won’t be ‘freedom’ at all. Other places are opening up faster despite our world leading vaccination….odd that we seem to be the only place that gets the variants and gets a spike in cases as a result!

The Indian variant is just nonsense. You must get 2 vaccines to protect yourself and younger people are very vulnerable and getting hospitalised. It is 30 to 100% transmissible per Ferguson.

India have not double jabbed their population and the cases have fallen massively in the last 4 weeks. This trend seems to be followed by Bolton who are seeing cases falling already.

Hospitalisation is up in Bolton but mainly non critical care. The level is 1/3rd of January rates and my guess is they have capacity so are taking in cases that they previously wouldn’t. This seems to make sense as a lot of people are in and out the next day

Cases were always going to rise as we opened up and even our scientists said we would have to live with a level of death from it. Nothing happening is what wasn’t expected

Deaths have been below the 5 year average for a few weeks now and deaths due to covid are a fraction of the daily deaths from other causes yet we are focused on case rates… as this is the negative to keep restrictions in place

The government is clearly going for most adults and I’d guess over 12s double vaccinated before starting the roll out of the booster

I don’t think there is any conspiracy to this. It’s a combination of being over cautious as they don’t want to be seen to allow deaths, incompetence and poor leadership (and opposition)

I see more people relaxing in their day to day behaviour but there is a large proportion of people who are still masked up outside and still baying for tighter restrictions.

Maybe things will change over the summer when staycations dont look as attractive when their week in Skegness is ruined by the rain!

And regarding increased transmissibility, Neil Ferguson was on BBC News last night saying that Delta is 30%-100% more transmissible than the Kent Variant

In other words a huge confidence interval, ie not very reliable numbers at all.

@MaxNormal

And regarding increased transmissibility, Neil Ferguson was on BBC News last night saying that Delta is 30%-100% more transmissible than the Kent Variant

In other words a huge confidence interval, ie not very reliable numbers at all.

But it was shown by Warwick University (Matt Keeling et al.) that a 30% increase, the lower bound of that interval, would still lead to a massive surge in hospitalisations.

Lockdowns are all very well and good but the more you do the less people will follow them.

Those losing income once again may start to find ways of getting money. That will mean more haircuts on the sly, beauty treatments. Private pubs may start opening their doors quietly to a selected number of people but I wouldn't be surprised if that number grows.

People won't stay away from family and friends anymore and there just isn't enough police to deal with all the complaints although I suspect they would drop off too as more and more people just started quietly getting on with their lives. Last year Mabel at number 32 might have been reported for having a friend over whereas now I think most people wouldn't care.

Close the schools and parents will start to look for other childcare arrangements which means mixing.

So then you wonder what the point is in lockdown when all its doing is screwing the economy. Is it not better to open things with measures in place rather than just have a free for all.

But it was shown by Warwick University (Matt Keeling et al.) that a 30% increase, the lower bound of that interval, would still lead to a massive surge in hospitalisations

I suppose time will tell but I'd be surprised given that the people who made up 99% of the cohort likely to be hospitalised with covid have now had both vaccinations.

@mightbealittlebitmad

Lockdowns are all very well and good but the more you do the less people will follow them.

Those losing income once again may start to find ways of getting money. That will mean more haircuts on the sly, beauty treatments. Private pubs may start opening their doors quietly to a selected number of people but I wouldn't be surprised if that number grows.

People won't stay away from family and friends anymore and there just isn't enough police to deal with all the complaints although I suspect they would drop off too as more and more people just started quietly getting on with their lives. Last year Mabel at number 32 might have been reported for having a friend over whereas now I think most people wouldn't care.

Close the schools and parents will start to look for other childcare arrangements which means mixing.

So then you wonder what the point is in lockdown when all its doing is screwing the economy. Is it not better to open things with measures in place rather than just have a free for all.

Completely agree here... lockdown will just mean people mix in houses more than even now. Which is the biggest cause in case increases. Lockdowns will now be counter productive and cause more cases than they prevent.

mightbealittlebitmad is absolutely right.

People move to socialising in private residences, the economy moves underground (already happened last lockdown where I am). Potentially net negative impact on public health and the major loser is the exchequer.

We’ve reached the end of the line with lockdown as a policy.

I don’t think there is any conspiracy to this. It’s a combination of being over cautious as they don’t want to be seen to allow deaths, incompetence and poor leadership (and opposition)*

@AlecTrevelyan006 completely agree with this statement. Way more cock up than conspiracy

However much some here are salivating over the thought of another lockdown (under the guise of being 'realistic' and 'following the science'), it isn't going to happen. It's quite possible 'Freedom day' might be pushed back by a few weeks but unforunately I'm afraid sorry there won't be another lockdown.

@NannyAndJohn what were the other variables inputted into that model though because that is key. You cant keep on saying that the model shows increased hospitalisations at that increased level of transmissibility hospitalisations increase because I suspect that the other variables to create the model were (understandably) not accurate to the data we have now.

A new model with what we know in particular about vaccines would be very useful but the indicators are that model is not necessarily accurate because the other parameters are more positive than the model allowed

Good news from Bolton

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/bolton-shows-vaccines-seem-broken-20748200

"NHS Providers chief executive, Chris Hopson, said the number of people in hospital with the Covid-19 variant first detected in India - known as the Delta variant - was not increasing “very significantly”.

Many of those in hospital in Bolton – which has the highest number of cases of the Indian variant in England – were younger than in previous waves of the pandemic, he told BBC Breakfast. Those in hospital with Covid in Bolton have been 'a lot younger' than in previous waves

“The people who came in this time round were actually a lot younger and were a lot less at risk of very serious complication, less at risk of death, and what that means is that they were less demand on critical care,” he said.

“What we think we can start to say now, based on that experience, is that it does look as though the vaccines have broken the chain between catching Covid-19 and potentially being very, very seriously ill and potentially dying.

“There were very, very few people who have had those double jabs and had been able to have that build-up of protection after those jabs.”

vera99 that sounds promising.

@mightbealittlebitmad

Lockdowns are all very well and good but the more you do the less people will follow them.

Those losing income once again may start to find ways of getting money. That will mean more haircuts on the sly, beauty treatments. Private pubs may start opening their doors quietly to a selected number of people but I wouldn't be surprised if that number grows.

People won't stay away from family and friends anymore and there just isn't enough police to deal with all the complaints although I suspect they would drop off too as more and more people just started quietly getting on with their lives. Last year Mabel at number 32 might have been reported for having a friend over whereas now I think most people wouldn't care.

Close the schools and parents will start to look for other childcare arrangements which means mixing.

So then you wonder what the point is in lockdown when all its doing is screwing the economy. Is it not better to open things with measures in place rather than just have a free for all.

Absolutely lockdowns don’t mean anything if you keep doing them every few months it’s just pointless it will work less and less each time . Most will ignore and it I agree it will just screw the economy . People still can’t get to see a gp or a dentist there comes a point where actually Covid doesn’t trump everything we need to see the gp the dentist etc and I actually think we are there now . It won’t be supported a lockdown at all those handful of mumsnet who think it will are not a reflection on real life .

@vera99 Thank you for posting that, sounds very positive.

@vera99 that is great to read!

@vera99 fingers crossed this continues to extrapolate out as time goes on.

@NannyandJohn give it a rest will you. You will wear yourself out with your negativity and statistics.

Lockdown works when we consent to them. As in, when the risk is high, you know covid is everywhere, most people would naturally take precautions.

If the gov attempted a lockdown now there would be no consent for it as the numbers are low and many people are vaccinated. It wouldn't work.

I don't think there'll be another lockdown, at least I really hope we won't need one. I do think pretending it's all over and wanting to go back to 2019 normal ASAP is a risky strategy for anyone claiming not to want lockdowns though. There's a huge middle ground and like it or not that's where we're going to have to live for a bit longer.

@ILookAtTheFloor

Lockdown works when we consent to them. As in, when the risk is high, you know covid is everywhere, most people would naturally take precautions.

If the gov attempted a lockdown now there would be no consent for it as the numbers are low and many people are vaccinated. It wouldn't work.

With the threat of fines or imprisonment, they would work to an extent, as long as the police enforce them.