I can’t bear the thought of another full lockdown but it seems inevitable

[cantfaceitalloveragain]

I’ve only just this week been allowed to see sister without social distancing, as she lives in residential care, had a lovely meal and a big hug but at the end all I could think was, will it be another year before we can meet again? She’s been hugely, horribly affected by this virus - she’s dreadfully ill through anxiety - and has been only just told this week she can see two relatives and one friend, and she might be allowed back to day care services the end of this month - first time since Feb 2020 .

I can’t bear the thought of another year indoors, no haircuts, no socialising, no shopping, no travel, no seeing sister or friends or family ...

I live in a tiny village with shit public transport that was largely stoped over both lockdowns ... can’t bear another year in this three mile square and relying on online delivery and zoom ... GP rang this morning and even yapping to her I thought, how lovely it would be to see someone else face to face - most friends and family are still heavily avoiding all socialising, this is my experience of most people now that there’s a lot of fear and anxiety around covid .

I realise restrictions are necessary and probably inevitable, and things could be so so much worse - but I’m struggling so much now . Finding I’m dreading getting out of bed as I keep thinking, what’s coming next?

@tootyfruitypickle

I won't comply either and I was one of the people calling for lockdown in early March 2020. We have vaccines , that's all we can do. We need to crack on as normal now. I feel if I won't comply then that's probably 90pc of the population who won't and the government will know that so they won't impose another lockdown

I really struggle with the thing of people actively calling for lockdown

But at least if someone who was doing this in March 2020 now doesn't want it, that's something I guess.

Is anyone keeping a spreadsheet of Princesses wild predications?

I’m too lazy, but someone should for posterity.

@TheKeatingFive

Is anyone keeping a spreadsheet of Princesses wild predications?

I’m too lazy, but someone should for posterity.

We're currently on about a 9 day doubling rate.

Take today's case numbers, and double them 4 times.

That gives an indication of where we'll be 36 days from now if this rate of doubling continues.

It's simple maths. Ain't nothing "wild" about it.

It's simple maths. Ain't nothing "wild" about it.

Suuure it is

Lol

@TheKeatingFive

It's simple maths. Ain't nothing "wild" about it.

Suuure it is

You can look at the case numbers going back a couple of weeks and see what they were 9 days ago. (4330) Or 18 (2439)

It's very rough, but also very easy.

And it gives an idea of the general speed and direction of travel.

Yes but just a general idea and doesnt take into account a multitude of other factors.

I understand the concept of doubling and exponential growth but actually in the real world it isn't quite so straightforward. Simple maths doesnt work

And that is why new models are going to be out soon (I assume I will see it here first) that take into account the other factors that previous models didnt know

Visual aid for the direction of travel.

Won't happen, even if they try it most of us will not comply

But that is just a visual aid to show how exponential growth works on a mathematical basis and doesn't actually reflect the real world at all.

Bolton for example is levelling off, other areas are growing rapidly, vaccines are increasing etc. The real world is very different

Morning all. Sobering release from PHE with the news Delta is 60% more transmissible and reduces vaccine efficacy by up to 15%-20%.

@PrincessNutNuts I think you are going to be proven right on the numbers side.

Vaccines being less effective when it’s more transmissible means we are in a very tricky situation. They better be working on booster jabs for this variant otherwise we’re back to square one.

My guess is they are banking on the summer holidays to be a circuit breaker for transmission in schools. Numbers may plateau or drop before term starts in September, they will shoot back up in the autumn in time for a winter lockdown.

@Quartz2208

But that is just a visual aid to show how exponential growth works on a mathematical basis and doesn't actually reflect the real world at all.

Bolton for example is levelling off, other areas are growing rapidly, vaccines are increasing etc. The real world is very different

That's real world U.K. cases plotted.

You can see we've been in exponential growth for the last 3 weeks.

@Thewiseoneincognito dream come true for you?

@PrincessNutNuts

Visual aid for the direction of travel.

Is this the new graph replacing the warwick graph of doom you were posting all over the place?

15k a day by 21st June? Well, thats a lot better than the 100k cases being predicted earlier in the thread.

[quote socialmediamishap]@Thewiseoneincognito dream come true for you?[/quote]
Oh yes I can’t wait. I’m frothing at the mouth so I can shriek how unfortunately wrong the skeptics were in thinking we’d be free from all this magically on the 21st June. 😘🥳

What a stupid thing to say. Why is it if you discuss Covid on here you lot jump on immediately to tell us we’re enjoying this? Talking about it on Mumsnet does not envoke exponential growth nor does it mean you are wishing it upon the country.

Why is it if you discuss Covid on here you lot jump on immediately to tell us we’re enjoying this? Talking about it on Mumsnet does not envoke exponential growth nor does it mean you are wishing it upon the country.

I don't think I've ever seen you post anything remotely positive so are you surprised?!

@Thewiseoneincognito you and Princess have a reputation for catastrophising and predicting worst case scenarios like they are fact / guaranteed.

There is 0 proof we will have a winter lockdown.

If you click on any covid thread it's the same 3 or 4 users that are on there all day every day going on and on about how terrible it will all be.

@Thewiseoneincognito

Morning all. Sobering release from PHE with the news Delta is 60% more transmissible and reduces vaccine efficacy by up to 15%-20%.

@PrincessNutNuts I think you are going to be proven right on the numbers side.

Vaccines being less effective when it’s more transmissible means we are in a very tricky situation. They better be working on booster jabs for this variant otherwise we’re back to square one.

My guess is they are banking on the summer holidays to be a circuit breaker for transmission in schools. Numbers may plateau or drop before term starts in September, they will shoot back up in the autumn in time for a winter lockdown.

University of Warwick's (Matt Keeling et al.) 20000 hospitalisations a day worst scenario was 50% and full vaccine efficacy.

Hopefully new model projections will be published taking into account that we're doing even worse than that.

I'll certainly be taking a deep breath before seeing the figures for the first time.

@TheKeatingFive

It's simple maths. Ain't nothing "wild" about it.

Suuure it is

Head in the fucking sand.

Sky news:

The latest COVID-19 risk assessment by PHE reports the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines are less effective against the Delta variant than the Alpha one by 17% after one dose.
But there was little reduction in efficacy after two, meaning getting a second dose is integral to protection against the Delta variant.

So actually we knew that already - after 2 doses it does reduce effectiveness.

@Thewiseoneincognito
@NannyAndJohn
@PrincessNutNuts

If the vaccines aren't enough, then we are sadly I'm afraid going to have to GET ON WITH IT.

There will always be another variant around the corner. The country and economy can't and won't withstand another year of this. Subsequent lockdowns will be a waste of time as they will damage the economy but the majority will continue to meet up with friends and family. The government know this.

Does not reduce *

I don't understand why certain people think we are oh so special and different from other countries?

The variant is in the US too. They also have 40% of the population vaccinated (the half most at risk).

Washington post June 8th:

The highly transmissible variant of the coronavirus that was first identified in India now accounts for 6 percent of infections in the United States, the Biden administration said Tuesday, but vaccines appear to be highly effective against the version that has quickly spread in Britain and beyond.

The United States reportedd^ a seven-day rolling average of 15,589 new infections on Monday, down nearly 15 percent from the previous week. The number of hospitalizations, deaths and tests continued to fall.

This is a country where many states have completely lifted restrictions, every state is easing restrictions, and one could argue that many states have never seen restrictions like ours. I was having conversations with friends who were still swimming / at gym classes / eating out at the height of the last wave.

Why are we always apparently on the cusp on a fucking meltdown?

Are people really living like this? I have decorators in today, will go out for coffee later, tomorrow I'll meet my family inc elderly relatives for breakfast then take my kids to boxing. Nobody in my life seems to be remotely concerned that we are about to spin out of control, overwhelm hospitals and have bodies on the streets. The people who would end up in hospital are vaccinated! Even if it's slightly less effective, the chance of them dying was not 100% or even 50% or even 20% anyway!

winched are you in England?

Broken record alert - well worth reading Laura Dodsworth State of Fear.

@Ostara212 I'm in Scotland.

And yep reading it now, also on the review thread.