I can’t bear the thought of another full lockdown but it seems inevitable

[cantfaceitalloveragain]

I’ve only just this week been allowed to see sister without social distancing, as she lives in residential care, had a lovely meal and a big hug but at the end all I could think was, will it be another year before we can meet again? She’s been hugely, horribly affected by this virus - she’s dreadfully ill through anxiety - and has been only just told this week she can see two relatives and one friend, and she might be allowed back to day care services the end of this month - first time since Feb 2020 .

I can’t bear the thought of another year indoors, no haircuts, no socialising, no shopping, no travel, no seeing sister or friends or family ...

I live in a tiny village with shit public transport that was largely stoped over both lockdowns ... can’t bear another year in this three mile square and relying on online delivery and zoom ... GP rang this morning and even yapping to her I thought, how lovely it would be to see someone else face to face - most friends and family are still heavily avoiding all socialising, this is my experience of most people now that there’s a lot of fear and anxiety around covid .

I realise restrictions are necessary and probably inevitable, and things could be so so much worse - but I’m struggling so much now . Finding I’m dreading getting out of bed as I keep thinking, what’s coming next?

What have India done to cause the drop in cases recently?

It seems a mystery. I wish they'd explain in the media. Does anyone know?

I'm assuming that vaccinations won't be able to catch up quick enough and make an effect - yet - so is it just that there is community immunity growing now due to enough people actually having had the variant of Covid?

@UmbilicusProfundus

What have India done to cause the drop in cases recently? Shouldn’t they be up to 10m cases a day and increasing because we all know that’s how exponential growth works and there are no other possible factors that might influence things.

I suppose their vaccination rate is much higher and they don’t have any poverty or urban crowding or multigenerational families or factories, and have great leadership and compliant population, so must be much lower risk than the UK somehow.

Lockdown.

@UmbilicusProfundus

What have India done to cause the drop in cases recently? Shouldn’t they be up to 10m cases a day and increasing because we all know that’s how exponential growth works and there are no other possible factors that might influence things.

I suppose their vaccination rate is much higher and they don’t have any poverty or urban crowding or multigenerational families or factories, and have great leadership and compliant population, so must be much lower risk than the UK somehow.

Er..lockdown! People are petrified. Children have been orphaned. Many have died. Are you crazy? They have changed their behaviour from having no restrictions to taking covid very seriously.

It's not a mystery. Its widely publicized if you look at indian media not just uk media

And obviously temporary immunity until the next variant evolves, which it probably already has considering the level of infection they have experienced.

The naievity is astounding..here we go again with the passive aggressive comments. Please just keep to the facts - you don't offer anything other than scaremongering, generalisations and dodgy statistics.

@NannyAndJohn

Yep, it's coming.

Cases doubling every four days means we'll hit 100,000 a day by the 21st June.

Best we all accept that we'll be spending the rest of the year in lockdown instead of sticking our heads in the sand and pretending that everything's okay.

Do you spend all your days looking for threads to weave your shitty know it all scaremongering shite into? You are going to be distraught when this is over.

@PaulGallico

The naievity is astounding..here we go again with the passive aggressive comments. Please just keep to the facts - you don't offer anything other than scaremongering, generalisations and dodgy statistics.

Let's see in a few weeks...

@Arrowheart - totally agree. Scaremongering shite looking at you - Nanny, Princess and Sonnett. Absolutely meet up on MN in a few weeks..because that is what balanced, informed, supportive debate is about.

The reason they are not telling you the truth is down to politics. The naivety is astounding.

I think most people are aware they haven't been telling the truth for a while. It's the ones who don't look any further than the terror campaign who seem naive to me (or suffering from severe anxiety, in which case I really sympathise and hope they get help).

You can show me as many graphs as you want saying young people are dying of covid but I know for a fact it's not accurate. I only know one person who died "of covid" and they were so seriously ill months before covid even winked at a bat, that a gust of wind would have killed them. And yes they are in those statistics everyone seems to share to prove a point that healthy 22 year olds should be cowering in fear because they're not yet vaccinated.

It's widely known they used fear to control the behaviour of the public.

It's also widely known you can make statistics tell whatever story you want them to. (As with NancyDrew and her rather pointless R number exercise. She very "cleverly" used the entire population to sell her story that we are in a much worse position, but you can't do that when 0% of children are vaccinated, and children aren't dying anyway.)

They have changed their behaviour from having no restrictions to taking covid very seriously

Have you been to India, or indeed any country with a substantial proportion of the population living in poverty? If you think that the kind of behavioural changes most people were able to carry out here, are remotely possible there then you're dreaming. Do you have any idea what the housing situaton is there, the levels of over-crowding? The fact that many rely on what they earn day to day to actually feed their families that evening?
As if they would have the luxuy of hiding indoors scared (with twenty other people) when their children have no food.
Seriously. Clueless.

@winched

The reason they are not telling you the truth is down to politics. The naivety is astounding.

I think most people are aware they haven't been telling the truth for a while. It's the ones who don't look any further than the terror campaign who seem naive to me (or suffering from severe anxiety, in which case I really sympathise and hope they get help).

You can show me as many graphs as you want saying young people are dying of covid but I know for a fact it's not accurate. I only know one person who died "of covid" and they were so seriously ill months before covid even winked at a bat, that a gust of wind would have killed them. And yes they are in those statistics everyone seems to share to prove a point that healthy 22 year olds should be cowering in fear because they're not yet vaccinated.

It's widely known they used fear to control the behaviour of the public.

It's also widely known you can make statistics tell whatever story you want them to. (As with NancyDrew and her rather pointless R number exercise. She very "cleverly" used the entire population to sell her story that we are in a much worse position, but you can't do that when 0% of children are vaccinated, and children aren't dying anyway.)

I have a background in psychology and critical thinking so I understand about media influences and fear but I'm not suffering with anxiety. I just want people to acknowledge the situation and work together to combat it.

Also I haven't actually said anything about young people dying??

@MaxNormal

They have changed their behaviour from having no restrictions to taking covid very seriously

Have you been to India, or indeed any country with a substantial proportion of the population living in poverty? If you think that the kind of behavioural changes most people were able to carry out here, are remotely possible there then you're dreaming. Do you have any idea what the housing situaton is there, the levels of over-crowding? The fact that many rely on what they earn day to day to actually feed their families that evening?
As if they would have the luxuy of hiding indoors scared (with twenty other people) when their children have no food.
Seriously. Clueless.

My family live in India. So yes I have.

@NannyAndJohn

To anyone wondering why things are up the shitter despite the vaccine (warning - mathematics ahead!):

Old Covid had an R of approximately 3.

The Kent Variant had increased transmissibility of approximately 60% over Old Covid, giving it an R of 3 x 1.6 = 4.8.

The Indian Variant (Delta) has increased transmissibility of approximately 60% over the Kent Variant, giving it an R of 4.8 x 1.6 = 7.68.

40.2% of the UK population have now had their second dose, which is approximately 80% effective against Delta.

19.7% of the UK population have had their first dose only, which is approximately 33% effective against Delta.

The overall vaccine effect therefore gives a reduction in R of (0.402 x 0.8) + (0.197 x 0.33) = 0.387.

Putting all of this together, the current R of Delta + vaccines is

7.68 x (1 - 0.387) = 4.71.

So we're currently in a significantly worse position than we were in March 2020.

Apart from those vaccinated aren’t a random sample of the population, they are the most vulnerable. So while we are in a worse position than March 2020 in terms of overall cases, we are probably not in a worse position in terms of severe cases.

Have you?

My family live in India. So yes I have

So the entire India was locked down and terrified then, and not just the Mumbai middle-classes who bought up all the oxygen? Yeah right.

I grew up in Africa. My family are still there. Let me tell you covid is the least of their worries, and the sodding government Western copycat lockdowns have ruined people. The police and army killed a few people as well, to get the point across. There are now children starving. But covid, right?

@SonnetForSpring I would be really interested to know more about your background in psychology and critical thinking. What do you mean?

There will be some immunity because this variant of covid as ripped though portions the country. So the numbers will reduce until the next variant.

I have a psych MSc and I did my dissertation on critical thinking and epistemology.

@Dustyboots

What have India done to cause the drop in cases recently?

It seems a mystery. I wish they'd explain in the media. Does anyone know?

I'm assuming that vaccinations won't be able to catch up quick enough and make an effect - yet - so is it just that there is community immunity growing now due to enough people actually having had the variant of Covid?

The virus has moved into the rural areas where not even births and deaths are necessarily registered, let alone covid cases.

Yes, records are patchy and healthcare limited in rural parts.

@SonnetForSpring in that case I think you should ensure your posts are relevant and informed by data.

@MaxNormal

I grew up in Africa. My family are still there. Let me tell you covid is the least of their worries, and the sodding government Western copycat lockdowns have ruined people. The police and army killed a few people as well, to get the point across. There are now children starving. But covid, right?

Yep!