Delta variant spreading in schools

[noblegiraffe]

Not posted one of these threads in a while but the data is starting to get interesting again.

The ONS infection survey data from yesterday shows an alarming increase in infection rates in secondary kids. The PHE survey also shows a jump in outbreaks in schools.

However the infection rates by area show that this is much more of a problem in the North West than e.g. the South West. That suggests that in certain areas, the situation is really bad and in others there's not (yet) a problem. This would suggest a localised approach (the govt are really keen not to talk about tiers).

What is obvious is that there are local variant hotspots, and in those hotspots, covid is running through schools, secondary in particular.

What to do? Stopping the spread of the variant out from those areas should be a high priority. Surge vaccination of adults won't be enough if it is spreading mostly in children. It's evident that the measures taken to stop the spread in schools from Sept-Dec were inadequate (isolation of close contacts only) so it seems clear that in those areas, far more robust tackling of cases in schools is needed -PCR testing not LFT, sending home whole year groups, proactively closing schools instead of as last resort. Schools in those areas already seem to have kept masks. We need to be hearing far more of what they are doing about schools in the news and what to expect.

There are those who would argue that the Delta variant should simply be allowed to spread now, however we know that one vaccination doesn't confer much immunity to it and it would be more prudent to wait until a much bigger proportion of the population are double-vaccinated and more fully protected.

There is also the question of allowing covid to spread through schools and the disruption to education that this would cause. The government announced yesterday that they are only willing to fund a pitiful amount of catch-up support and given that the schools affected are currently restricted to certain areas (and ones that were badly affected last year too), parents and pupils in those areas should not be expected to experience severe disruption caused by unmitigated covid spread if it can be dealt with more effectively. It would seem fair for more covid catch-up funding to be directed to those areas hardest hit but I haven't seen that proposed.

A few positive things: We've just had half term and that usually reduces infection rates in school children. Y11 and Y13 have now left, so secondary schools will have a reduced number of pupils. It's also less than 2 months to the summer holidays.

The Pfizer vaccine has just been approved in the UK for ages 12+. Vaccinating secondary children in those hotspots as a priority could be an option. Priority vaccinations for school staff there should be a no-brainer, I assume that has happened.

Unfortunately the government is currently suppressing data on the number of cases of the Delta variant in schools and there is a legal challenge to get this published. Why they are doing this is unclear. I do hope it's not because they want to pretend that schools aren't an issue until it's too late like they did before, but I don't trust them, for obvious reasons.

@roguetomato

You say children have 0.1% chance of dying from it. 1 in 1000 if they catch it? Isn't that bad enough, let alone those with complications afterwards?

No its 1 in 10,000. And these children children are likely to have issues with cardiovascular or respiratory disease, or who are immunosuppressed as a result of medical treatment (such as for some cancers) which makes them more vuneable so the chances of a healthy child dying from covid is even lower. Do you know how many children die due to cancer, childhood illnesses, accidents etc.

This was never about eradicating covid. We can't its already been here years and will continue to do so, however we are in a very fortunate position where we have a fantastic vaccine roll out which offers protection from mutations.

Excellent post @noblegiraffe and as expected with this topic the ‘let’s deny it and it’ll go away’ posters came for you in droves.

Right now I myself don’t trust any of the data being put out in the press simply because of the G7 event next week being held in Carbis Bay. A pivotal key moment for BoJo & Co on the Global stage.

Each one of the G7 leaders knows the reality of the situation, the modelling for possibly the next 12 months as well as the true statistics on how the Delta variant affects younger people and what the next stages in the pandemic are likely to look like.

However there is much at stake here politically for each of those members, holding their conference in a country where Covid was surging would not be the best look. Borris has the headache of promising the country the 21st unlocking, Japans leader has the small problem of potentially cancelling the Olympics, we can’t technically travel to any of the other 6 nations without quarantine.

We won’t get a clear picture this month.

Scramble you're missing this point still deliberately I think

Covid is low risk generally to school children atm.

We have the vaccines which are proving so far effective.

However - if we allow it to spread like wildfire through school communities we increase the risk massively of a variant that invalidates the vaccines efficiency and/or makes children iller or even is more fatal for them.

We need to be extra cautious until the new academic year in September to avoid undoing all the good we've done.

We’ll be ok now in my opinion and understandably the economies cash registers need to be open whilst they can be over the summer months.

My concern is for autumn. I’d love to believe it’s all done and dusted but if it isn’t I need to believe we’ve learnt some lessons and will apply them this time.

@itsgettingwierd

Scramble you're missing this point still deliberately I think

Covid is low risk generally to school children atm.

We have the vaccines which are proving so far effective.

However - if we allow it to spread like wildfire through school communities we increase the risk massively of a variant that invalidates the vaccines efficiency and/or makes children iller or even is more fatal for them.

We need to be extra cautious until the new academic year in September to avoid undoing all the good we've done.

No im not missing the point. And you have no evidence that the vaccine will become ineffective.

People were hand wringing over the Kent variant yes it was more transmissible but not more clinically severe - this includes the Delta variant. No evidence that it is more clinically severe and vaccine less effective.

You can't based you theory on something that is groundless. The death rate is what we need to look at not infection rate.

And I really do hope that the government have the fortitude to not cave in for the benefit of all the families who can not go through another school closure. Because that's what these threads are really about. "Safer school measures' don't exist.

"This was never about eradicating covid. "

No one is talking about eradicating covid. No one wants school closed.
Yet some just keep going on about things not been said by anyone, thread after thread.

But children get sick all the time and have time off school. An individual get sick and has individual time off.

Because with a positive Covid test, it’s not just an individual child or staff member that has time off. In primary, it’s the whole class off and in secondary, the close contacts in every lesson they have.
I’d like to do as much as possible to help reduce these occurrences and keep more kids in school thanks.

And you have no evidence that the vaccine will become ineffective.

People were hand wringing over the Kent variant yes it was more transmissible but not more clinically severe - this includes the Delta variant. No evidence that it is more clinically severe and vaccine less effective.

You might want to have a look at the news from yesterday regarding the Pfizer vaccine

"Scrambledcustard*
Once again (seems like the same thing as last year) if you want schools to stay open you have to put measures in place before the numbers get to high

Which invariably means to close the schools down as schools through out last year were unable to satisfy 'safe measures'.

That is putting a huge amount of spin on what I posted.

No teacher wants schools to close.

Safer school measures' don't exist

Rubbish. There is loads that could have been done to make schools safer. But it would have cost money and big, political bollocks to do it. Sadly, it seems the general public has no care for safe schools. That’s the real issue here: it’s just childcare.

And I really do hope that the government have the fortitude to not cave in for the benefit of all the families who can not go through another school closure

I’d rather they based their decision on the science, health, nhs etc rather than those who don’t want their children home.

Masks, ventilation, some distancing - all these help keep schools open

eh? We had that last time - still closed.

Not in England we didn’t. No masks in classrooms from the guidance from the govt.

And I really do hope that the government have the fortitude to not cave in for the benefit of all the families who can not go through another school closure.

Don't worry they have already aligned themselves with twats4themselves.

Because that's what these threads are really about. "Safer school measures' don't exist.

It really isn't and the safety measures do exist, they would just have to be paid for, something that the government has said that it won't do.

Schools will never be made safe enough for the NEU and their ilk. They are a teacher's lobby union who are constantly calling for more closures, (latest here www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-57328208) more miserable 'mitigations' for children. In Wales there is no end in sight to masks in classrooms. England at least looks at the data rather than politically motivated unions who don't represent children as it's not their job. Children's rights to education, play and safeguarding have been routinely dismissed throughout this period and it's time they took priority.

where we have a fantastic vaccine roll out which offers protection from mutations.

Scrambled you keep repeating this. The data shows that a single dose of AZ does not offer good protection from the delta variant. As I said in my OP. You need two doses for reasonable protection and many adults are still waiting for their second dose.

Children's rights to education, play and safeguarding have been routinely dismissed throughout this period and it's time they took priority

Perhaps if you had a child who was vulnerable to covid you might view that differently? What about the rights of those children and their families? Why don’t they matter?

Eh? Miserable mitigation? This is my exact point. The people frothing most about school closures are the same ones who froth equally at the things that help prevent them.

It’s infantile. It really disturbs me that people can be so irrational and petulant.

These kind of people are what we’re up against and what government bowed down to. These are the people to blame for excess closures and isolations because they threw massive tantrums at the idea of any safety measures.

Ironically they are the ones who forced closures

GiveMeNovocain
Schools will never be made safe enough for the NEU and their ilk.

Oh dear. good job that the government listens to lobby groups, with no data or facts then.

They are a teacher's lobby union who are constantly calling for more closures, (latest here www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-57328208) more miserable 'mitigations' for children.

Your link doesn't work and no they haven't "constantly" called for closures. As for miserable 'mitigations' so much for schools open at any cost.

In Wales there is no end in sight to masks in classrooms. England at least looks at the data rather than politically motivated unions who don't represent children as it's not their job.

Same data difference response, and the government has pretty much ignored the unions in all of this.

Children's rights to education, play and safeguarding have been routinely dismissed throughout this period and it's time they took priority.

Except that this is wrong (although there will be exceptions).

Children's rights to education, play and safeguarding have been routinely dismissed throughout this period and it's time they took priority

Likewise a priority should also be the safety of the children, their families and the staff. All workplaces deserve to be as safe as possible, not just some. I’ve seen lots of posts moaning about having to go back to the office etc yet quite happy for others to do it.

Not to mention education and play can be done outside of school premises.

There will not come a point any time this year where we suddenly stop testing for covid and isolating close contacts, including in schools. Control of the spread of the virus will remain a part of U.K. policy.

So, a high covid spread in schools amongst an unvaccinated population is inevitable, and means more disruption, closures.

You can't outrun covid we need to get to the point where covid is rife but not killing people.
This virus is not going anywhere .

@GiveMeNovocain
Your link doesn’t work for me but I tracked the story down.

NEU (who have next to no power) are recommending a one week closure in one area of the UK. It is nice to see hyperbole out in the wild though! Do you just bank on people not reading the article?

Reasons, from the article:

“It is estimated that about 90% of people over the age of 40 in Blackburn have had at least one jab - a promising sign. But with fewer than half of this age group having had a second dose, there is still a risk that hospitalisations may increase further, something we have started to see already.”

My second vaccine is due at the end of July - meaning I’ll be, usefully, fully protected by the middle of the summer holidays. But really, who cares if me/my colleagues are off and your kids education is disrupted for the rest of the school year*?

(*Me. I care a lot about the progress and well-being of my students. Hopefully you do too.)

No im not missing the point. And you have no evidence that the vaccine will become ineffective.

People were hand wringing over the Kent variant yes it was more transmissible but not more clinically severe - this includes the Delta variant. No evidence that it is more clinically severe and vaccine less effective.

You can't based you theory on something that is groundless. The death rate is what we need to look at not infection rate.

And I really do hope that the government have the fortitude to not cave in for the benefit of all the families who can not go through another school closure. Because that's what these threads are really about. "Safer school measures' don't exist.

Yes - people were hand wringing as you put it over the Kent variant. They were pointing out the driver of transmission through schools. They were asking for mitigation measures to prevent another closure.

The government ignored this.

This wave was bigger and more deadly. It meant 50% of the country couldn't mix at Christmas. It Led to another lockdown and more school closures.

It eventually led to a paper being released that showed 12-17yo were 7 times more likely to be the index case in a household.

We also have no evidence to prove there will be variants that escape vaccine. But we also don't have evidence that we won't.

So exactly why are you and others so intent on avoiding putting in mitigation measures to prevent a repeat of January?

We don't want another out of control variant. We don't want to have a lockdown over the summer when our kids need to have some social freedom. We don't want them isolating frequently or even having to close schools.

So let's get some funding and mitigation measures in place now - to minimise the risk of it happening.

Novocain’s link didn’t work but did take me to this on the front page of the BBC:

“Dr Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, says the transmissibility of the Delta variant could see a "big number" of people admitted to hospital with coronavirus.

Dr Kucharski is a member of the SPI-M group that advises the government but was speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme in a personal capacity.

He says there are a "number of concerning signs" related to the Delta variant, adding: "I think it's particularly this increase in transmission that is potentially going to cause us some significant problems."

"We’re getting estimates now firming up that we’re looking at something potentially 40-60% more transmissible than the Kent variant that was dominant, and that means infections can come at us really quite fast," he says.

Dr Kucharski adds that the current picture means that it is "hard to be confident" that a "big number" of people will not end up in hospital due to the spread of the Indian variant - and the number of adults still unvaccinated in the UK.“

If we are not sure how the Delta variant will play out and we know it is transmitting through schools, then taking robust measures to tackle it in schools where it appears is a no-brainer.

Robust measures might mean closing individual schools. Any lobby group that argues that that option is off the table in any circumstance isn’t worth listening to. We saw what happened with Greenwich before Christmas.