Start of third wave - what will this actually mean?

[Moonme]

With so many of the population vaccinated what do you think a third wave means? Will we need another lockdown? 😩

Covid-19: UK in early stages of third wave - scientist www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57304515

The models need to be updated to take into account

1. Further opening up on June 21st (because you know the government will go ahead with it regardless).

2. Even higher increase in transmission of the Indian Variant (67% seems to be the figure knocking around at the moment).

Add in those two features and I dread to think just how high the figures will go. Time to get ready to hunker down for a long summer lockdown.

I think there will be a third wave and it's really going to take off as indian variant is extremely contagious.
However, if death rates and hospital rates stay low, perhaps this is ok. I would be very happy to see the last phase of lockdown being postponed until we know more.

PrincessNutsNuts so we are edging into blue surely that is a fairly positive sign that we arent going into the yellow or the red given we have the Indian Variant at play as well.

I caveat this with I think June 21st is a mistake - I think it actually doesnt do anything in terms of data or dates. Just an arbitrary six weeks from the last time where personally a date in July where you get everyone vaccinated once, groups 1-9 vaccinated and I would say a large proportion of the 40 group within the second vaccination timeframe

@NannyAndJohn I think as well we need an actual agreed figure of increased transmission - why it seems to hit certain areas over others and the agreed impact of vaccinations on hospitalisations and deaths. And make a decision from there

@Quartz2208 I completely agree that there is still some uncertainty about the true increase in transmission. Just that the model does not yet take into account the most likely figure from recent data.

A sensible government would now be officially announcing June 21st as kaput and quickly figuring out which restrictions to reintroduce.

[quote Viv08]@OverTheRubicon

If there are people with meaningful life expectancies getting very ill or dying then I'd sadly but totally understand locking back down.

What does that even mean?!

So if someone doesn’t have a “meaningful” life expectancy we should just leave them to fend for themselves and not take any actions to protect them...

Honestly!![/quote]
Of course we should take actions to protect the vulnerable, which is why vaccinations has been so important, why care homes and others who are CEV need additional support and mostly, why we locked down in the first place. Also of course in an ideal world we all take the Kantian version that any life is valuable. But in reality, society must and does make tradeoffs all the time, that's what NICE does with Quality Adjusted Life Years. When so many people were becoming seriously ill or dying, no matter what age, it was necessary to lock down. But that tradeoff still had a cost. For now it still appears that very few people, including those at high risk, contract covid after being fully vaccinated and if so that they very rarely become seriously ill or die, unless already very frail. No matter how frail, or how young and unlucky, this is still tremendously sad for those people and their families - and it could be any of our families.

We do accept some level of risk in return for functioning as a society, from allowing cars on the road to non-compulsory flu vaccinations. Around 450 pedestrians are killed on British roads each year - and a disproportionate number are children and young people. Accidents kill more and pollution more again. Climate change is worsened by driving and will blow all of these deaths, and covid, out of the water. Yet there is no campaign to drastically reduce driving, or to WFH to avoid unnecessary commutes. People are suffering hugely from loss of businesses, and of lack of healthcare during covid. Why would we look at another lockdown unless there is a major change that shows a very significant increase in risk and yes, in impact on life years across the population?

@Quartz2208

PrincessNutsNuts so we are edging into blue surely that is a fairly positive sign that we arent going into the yellow or the red given we have the Indian Variant at play as well.

I caveat this with I think June 21st is a mistake - I think it actually doesnt do anything in terms of data or dates. Just an arbitrary six weeks from the last time where personally a date in July where you get everyone vaccinated once, groups 1-9 vaccinated and I would say a large proportion of the 40 group within the second vaccination timeframe

@NannyAndJohn I think as well we need an actual agreed figure of increased transmission - why it seems to hit certain areas over others and the agreed impact of vaccinations on hospitalisations and deaths. And make a decision from there

It's early days.

As cases rise so will the R.

If R is allowed to go above 1.2 we'll start edging into yellow.

If R is allowed to go above 1.5 we'll start edging into red.

There's also the little niggle that we're no longer dealing with a strain with a R0 of 3, we're dealing with a strain with a R0 of approximately 3x1.6x1.6 = 7.68. Very hard to keep it below 1.2 without further restrictions.

@NannyAndJohn

There's also the little niggle that we're no longer dealing with a strain with a R0 of 3, we're dealing with a strain with a R0 of approximately 3x1.6x1.6 = 7.68. Very hard to keep it below 1.2 without further restrictions.

Yeah.

We don't even know what level of restrictions will contain it.

Just that the current level of restrictions isn't.

That secondary attack rate is hair raising if it holds, and translates into a similar increased transmissibility over the Kent variant.

@User1234123

There has to be a point where the focus shifts to hospitalisations and deaths and not cases, there just has to be.

We opened up massively a few weeks ago, like....obviously cases are going to go up, this sort of end of days doom reporting makes it out like this is all going horribly wrong when in fact it was probably expected and planned for (albeit, given the decision making of the last year, I'm not so sure on that last bit!)

We've been conditioned to become so panicked by graphs and numbers it's quite scary, so SAGE members going on TV, sowing seeds of anxiety in people really doesn't help.

Hopefully when a report comes out in the next few weeks that shows a massive reduction in hospitalisations and deaths vs cases compared to last year, and proves that the vaccine effectively keeps people safe, then it'll not only open us back up, but will blow the candle out on the 15 minutes of fame for all the celebrity scientists!!

This Post says it all and should be at the top of all COVID posts

@Reallybadidea

I work in ICU. We're just starting to see quite young people being admitted with covid again for the first time in months. It's quite upsetting, I'm not sure how any of us can bear to go through another surge again. I hope that won't happen, but also quite upsetting to see people say that they don't care

It must be very tough working in ICU. The virus will be pushed down into younger groups, so I wonder if we should take tack and focus public health messaging and also practical effective strategies in schools and universities. Such as weekly testing.

Also the danger is that any well connected ‘system’ can always ignite an exponential rise.

We should have good ‘firewalls’ in place for those.

It will be less about deaths but hospitalizations will still occur but for younger people.

It will be getting better and vaccinations will continue to make a massive difference. So it will be safer. Those fully vaccinated will in reality have a lot more freedom than those that aren’t. It’s just, again, sensible choices for us as citizens, and please just put regional Public Health in charge of good local strategies - not the governments weird and wonderful rules!

I couldn't care less. I will get on with my life and I'm absolutely furious that we are being controlled in this manner. They wanted us to get our vaccine?? Well I've done that. Who the hell allowed this Indian variant to get in the country? Well maybe Boris should bloody quit as he's been f useless. Why do we have to pay for his fuck up? I'm so fed up with this bloody shot show.

I never quite understood the plan to fully open up until everyone has been fully vaccinated. If you chose to not take it fIr enough but at least wait until everyone has at least been offered.

There are soany businesses now pushing employees back into offices/commuting on trains and most young people haven't been vaccinated.

If this variant affects young people then we need to hold off

Its summer we can socialise outdoors for a bit longer

I agree how the fuck has the Indian variant got out of control. It's unbelievable.

@imforourfreedomback

I couldn't care less. I will get on with my life and I'm absolutely furious that we are being controlled in this manner. They wanted us to get our vaccine?? Well I've done that. Who the hell allowed this Indian variant to get in the country? Well maybe Boris should bloody quit as he's been f** useless. Why do we have to pay for his fuck up? I'm so fed up with this bloody shot show.

I completely agree

They fucked up and yet it is the people and their businesses who have to suffer more. Nah.

@Blankscreen

I agree how the fuck has the Indian variant got out of control. It's unbelievable.

Is it out of control though?

@Blankscreen I had my vaccine now and the thought of being locked up scares me and frustrates me like hell.
There are businesses out there that are spending money getting prepared for the grand opening on the 21st of June...how is this fair to them? Yet again the government is dangling the carrot and i wonder how many people truly are going to keep on going with this??!!
We need to face this and continue living! What kind of life are we having? I am not able to see my family as they are in a different country and my son can't see his grandparents. Honestly everyone willing to continue with these lockdowns will be directly responsible for the unnecessary deaths caused by mental health / cancer etc...which atm are overtaking the Covid deaths. No way I agree with further lockdowns.

@NannyAndJohn

The models need to be updated to take into account

1. Further opening up on June 21st (because you know the government will go ahead with it regardless).

2. Even higher increase in transmission of the Indian Variant (67% seems to be the figure knocking around at the moment).

Add in those two features and I dread to think just how high the figures will go. Time to get ready to hunker down for a long summer lockdown.

A long summer lockdown, get a grip

If we can’t get it under control now with vaccines it’s time to give up and crack on.

*A long summer lockdown, get a grip

If we can’t get it under control now with vaccines it’s time to give up and crack on.*

Absolutely this.

So everyone wanting summer lockdowns, further restrictions and so on... what's the end game here? Till all UK adults have been offered the vaccine? Children? Everyone globally?
How long are you wanting the restrictions to continue, and how are you suggesting they get paid for? How do you plan to ameliorate the other health and social consequences? And how do you actually pursuade what will shortly be an almost fully vaccinated adult population to comply on a longer-term basis?

Compliance will be a huge problem

Obviously we can’t go to shut down places but really I think people will think that if they and the people they are seeing are all fully vaccinated how high exactly is the risk. No its not zero but it’s not high either. There’s no point in people taking the vaccine if they don’t get any personal benefit to it.

A long summer lockdown, get a grip If we can’t get it under control now with vaccines it’s time to give up and crack on.

Yes absolutely. We need to get on with life. Shore up NHS resources, put in place better track and trace and get on with living. No one will comply with further lockdowns now.

No one will comply with further lockdowns now.

Well not if they have any sense they won’t. There are plenty though who will bend over and take whatever this government gives them without question.

I'm a compliant and law-abiding person. But I'm done with it now and will not be complying with any more lockdowns. Obviously I won't be able to break into shops and restaurants which aren't open, although I don't really believe that they will lock us down like that again.

But after a year of doing nothing and going nowhere, the kids struggling massively with homeschooling and not seeing their friends, I'm just not doing it any more.

Time to learn to live with this. The quest for the mythical Zero Covid is as realistic as the quest for zero colds, zero chicken pox, zero norovirus.

@Blankscreen

I never quite understood the plan to fully open up until everyone has been fully vaccinated. If you chose to not take it fIr enough but at least wait until everyone has at least been offered.

There are soany businesses now pushing employees back into offices/commuting on trains and most young people haven't been vaccinated.

If this variant affects young people then we need to hold off

Its summer we can socialise outdoors for a bit longer

Because we don’t need everyone to be vaccinated to substantially reduce the risk of hospitalisations and deaths. The JCVI identified the groups most likely to become seriously ill and even without vaccinating the top 9 groups completely you can see that we have very few people now ending up in hospital/dying.