Start of third wave - what will this actually mean?

[Moonme]

With so many of the population vaccinated what do you think a third wave means? Will we need another lockdown? 😩

Covid-19: UK in early stages of third wave - scientist www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57304515

Apologies if this has already been answered but I’m wondering how long the scientists estimate immunity via the vaccine will last, does anyone know? Is it being measured in months?

@Chisontoast apparently only about 6 months ... I got a certificate with an expiration date for my vaccine

If that were the case surely we would be seeing the effect of the 6 months given that the programme is at that point now

[quote imforourfreedomback]@Chisontoast apparently only about 6 months ... I got a certificate with an expiration date for my vaccine [/quote]
It’s not 6 months. It’s at least 6 months as that’s the data we have so far from vaccine trials (longer now actually as the vaccines trials are now longer ago).

I appreciate the comments people made to my post. The poster who made another comment about finding 'middle ground' during the Pandemic, might be the way to go. I,wasn't advocating another Lockdown or another one forever, but the middle ground post was good and perhaps may work?

I think part of the problem is that the vaccines only have around 33% efficiency against the Indian variant after the first dose. It is only increased after the second. We are currently at around 25m second doses so under half the population is fully protected at the moment. It would be terrible for the sake of a few more weeks of social distancing to see high death rates and subsequent lockdown again which will do a lot more damage to the economy in the long term.
www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccine/92753

^"A long summer lockdown, get a grip

If we can’t get it under control now with vaccines it’s time to give up and crack on."^

So you, Mumsnet user @RedcurrantPuff, are happy to admit that you are willing to watch in addition of 15000 people be carted off to hospital every day (and that's without taking the new Vietnam Variant into account)?

Okay.

Another one with the crystal ball accurately predicting 15k admissions every day and a new, vaccine-evading Vietnam variant?

Who knew that MN was such a hotbed of psychic ability?

Couple of months ago the Covid-anxious were holding up Vietnam as a paragon of virtue. What went wrong?

Ooh new Vietnam variant now! The Indian variant wasn’t scary enough for people to want lockdown so now there’s a new one

@NannyAndJohn

^"A long summer lockdown, get a grip

If we can’t get it under control now with vaccines it’s time to give up and crack on."^

So you, Mumsnet user @RedcurrantPuff, are happy to admit that you are willing to watch in addition of 15000 people be carted off to hospital every day (and that's without taking the new Vietnam Variant into account)?

Okay.

NannyandJohn but a summer lockdown would have a MASSIVE effect on other things - we cannot simply keep on locking down at some point we do have to work out what mitigations are. Are you happy to see a lockdown in the summer pretty much destroy the hospitality business, decimate theatres and the impact on mental health (particularly of our under 18s)

That is why I think we need to look at whether a freedom day for now is feasible - whether some things can be kept (masks, social distancing where possible, making sensible choices and LFT) alongside life going on as normal but alongside that getting everyone vaccinated (including working out booster shots) but the rest I think we do need to crack on a little.

We need to stop being so polarised between lockdowns (that I think simply are not that feasible anymore) and cracking on with life and coming up with workable solutions.

15000 per day going into hospital?

If you remember, @RaspberryCoulis, modellers got the second wave spot on last summer when Joe Public was declaring the pandemic completely over. And I never said anything about vaccine evasion, it's just that all VOCs have so far followed the worrying pattern of being ever so slightly more resistant to the vaccine than Old Covid. So the vaccines will likely offer some form of protection against the Vietnam Variant. But not enough to see us through without reintroducing restrictions.

I seem to remember when India was the sceptics country of choice when it came to controlling Covid without a lockdown. I wonder what happened there?

@Quartz2208

NannyandJohn but a summer lockdown would have a MASSIVE effect on other things - we cannot simply keep on locking down at some point we do have to work out what mitigations are. Are you happy to see a lockdown in the summer pretty much destroy the hospitality business, decimate theatres and the impact on mental health (particularly of our under 18s)

That is why I think we need to look at whether a freedom day for now is feasible - whether some things can be kept (masks, social distancing where possible, making sensible choices and LFT) alongside life going on as normal but alongside that getting everyone vaccinated (including working out booster shots) but the rest I think we do need to crack on a little.

We need to stop being so polarised between lockdowns (that I think simply are not that feasible anymore) and cracking on with life and coming up with workable solutions.

A devastating third wave (which we are are currently at the beginning of) would have a far worse impact on business and health than any lockdown.

I agree that it would be nice to keep the current relaxations in place over the summer. But I'd rather not see over 15000 admitted to hospital every day.

@bumbleymummy

15000 per day going into hospital?

Figure on page 8.

And that's very likely to be an underestimate, as recent data puts the Indian Variant at ~67% more transmissible than the Kent Variant, rather than the 50% that was modelled.

So what's your plan then, Nanny seeing as you are quite confident in your prediction that hospitals will be swamped and death tolls will rocket? And that there will be a Vietnam variant, and a France variant, and a Outer fucking Mongolia variant?

Lockdown for ever and ever and ever, with a few days respite in between? All businesses to go to the wall, no foreign travel EVER for ANY reason, everyone to stay at home and never see anyone else?

Fuck that for a game of soldiers.

Outer Mongolia variant has a good ring to it.

I back that for next scariant candidate.

How on earth are 15000 going to be admitted to hospital every day? Using the current hospitalisation rate that would be half a million positive tests a day, in a population where around half of the population have been double jabbed.
(Using yesterday's figures there were around 3000 positive tests and 133 admissions giving a hospitalisation rate of just under 4% (note that admission does not necessarily mean that the person is in hospital because they have covid, it may mean that they tested positive while in hospital for something else, and the numbers in hospital are still falling, which suggests that a percentage are not staying in hospital for even a day)).
If there's a 5 day doubling time (big if), then everybody in the country (including children) would have been infected before we got anywhere near that number and that's not taking those who have immunity from prior infection in to account or the fact that there would be a natural decline in transmission rate as there become fewer people left for the virus to infect.

Given there were 40000 in hospital in total in the second wave, in the middle of winter with hardly anyone vaccinated, are there going to be 15000 admitted daily, in a population with a large number of people vaccinated, during the summer?

@NannyAndJohn

^"A long summer lockdown, get a grip

If we can’t get it under control now with vaccines it’s time to give up and crack on."^

So you, Mumsnet user @RedcurrantPuff, are happy to admit that you are willing to watch in addition of 15000 people be carted off to hospital every day (and that's without taking the new Vietnam Variant into account)?

Okay.

Don’t give a shit any more to be honest.

I won’t be watching anything either @NannyAndJohn. I’ll be switching off the news, staying away from this increasingly insane topic on MN, and enjoying my summer.

@RedcurrantPuff

I won’t be watching anything either *@NannyAndJohn*. I’ll be switching off the news, staying away from this increasingly insane topic on MN, and enjoying my summer.

Agree, it's only a very small minority of people who are actively seeking out figures and modelling and graphs and statistics and whingeing on about trajectories and growth, and using the word "exponential" a lot.

The rest of us don't give a shit and may or may not catch a bot about Covid on the daily news.

Fewer people in hospital in Scotland today then yesterday. Even though Scotland is one of the "worst" places according to these experts.

@RedcurrantPuff

Given there were 40000 in hospital in total in the second wave, in the middle of winter with hardly anyone vaccinated, are there going to be 15000 admitted daily, in a population with a large number of people vaccinated, during the summer?

Maybe the Warwick graph of doom said so, in which case it must be true?

@TheKeatingFive

Outer Mongolia variant has a good ring to it.

I back that for next scariant candidate.

That's nothing compared to the Antarctica variant. Can confidently predict that will cause the entire population to need hospitalisation, the survivors will have 100% incidence of Long Covid.

Ooooh yes, that sounds BAD