Start of third wave - what will this actually mean?

[Moonme]

With so many of the population vaccinated what do you think a third wave means? Will we need another lockdown? 😩

Covid-19: UK in early stages of third wave - scientist www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57304515

everybodysang

I can never quite understand why - on here, anyway - there seems to be little middle ground between OPEN IT UP NOW/21 JUNE and WE MUST LOCKDOWN FOREVER. If we are indeed about to see a rise in hospitalisations - hopefully much smaller than in previous waves - then surely sticking with the data not dates approach is really sensible? Rather than opening up and then having to lockdown again, just easing a little more slowly? Masks inside for a little bit longer, social distancing in place for just a little longer, till more adults are fully vaccinated and the link between cases and hospitalisations is properly broken?

@PrincessNutNuts
Some people characterise it that way, but it's obviously a false dichotomy.

I've never seen anyone say "lockdown forever."

Ever.

AH I wasn't being clear enough - what I meant is that if you say anything other than we should end lockdown on 21 June, people do tend to jump in and say "well, what do you want us to do, lockdown forever?". Which I find frustrating, because, well, absolutely not! But a few more weeks might make all the difference in terms of getting people vaccinated enough for us really not to have a big problem any more.

@colouringcrayons

I don't see how disruption will be less from September when things are potentially worse in colder months.

The NHS barely coped with flu season anyway, how does flu + covid season even work?

The rules will likely change from close contacts having to isolate and only positive staying home, then it happens once per child.

Hard to know for sure but by then (nearly) all adults double vaccinated

@shakingstevensfan

I do not understand the mindset of people who do not care about others. I am not denying people think like that, I just do not understand it.

Doesn't this go both ways?

Not caring about livelihoods and mh wrecked?

@MarshaBradyo I am nor arguing for anything in terms of restrictions. But I care about other people. Whether they have work, their mental and physical health.
There are people saying they do not really care about others. And I have heard many people on MN say that before around other topics. I do not understand it.

@colouringcrayons

I don't see how disruption will be less from September when things are potentially worse in colder months.

The NHS barely coped with flu season anyway, how does flu + covid season even work?

As I understand it, there have been far fewer cases of flu than would normally have been expected in the winter from 2020 to 2021, partly because of a high uptake of the flu vaccine, but also, because of mask wearing, social distancing, and hand-washing. I have also heard it said that people have had fewer colds and have suffered less from allergies, because of the precautions they have been taking against Covid.

@Jaichangecentfoisdenom Are you expecting masks & distancing next winter too?

I still don't really see how the NHS copes with the expected flu deaths and the expected covid deaths, when it could barely cope with flu deaths normally.

@colouringcrayons - even just wearing masks might make a huge difference, both to individuals and the NHS.

@awishes

The Indian variant particularly hits young people hard so that's why the hospitals will fill up as they have yet to be vaccinated.

Says who? India? Utter bollocks.

[quote shakingstevensfan]@MarshaBradyo I am nor arguing for anything in terms of restrictions. But I care about other people. Whether they have work, their mental and physical health.
There are people saying they do not really care about others. And I have heard many people on MN say that before around other topics. I do not understand it.[/quote]
You are my kind of person. I also don't understand the mindset of those that don't give a fuck about others. Don't let people change you 😊

Doesn't this go both ways?
Not caring about livelihoods and mh wrecked?

That's generally a false assumption people ascribe to others so that they can argue with it.

Allowing Covid to spread in wave after wave after wave isn't good for people's livelihoods and mental health either of course.

As the last 16 months have amply demonstrated.

Chatting to my neighbour today, Intensive care nurse at Sheffield's Northern General Hospital. All nursing staff have had leave cancelled for July and August. Im hoping this is purely precautionary but doesnt bode well.

@PrincessNutNuts

*Doesn't this go both ways? Not caring about livelihoods and mh wrecked?*

That's generally a false assumption people ascribe to others so that they can argue with it.

Allowing Covid to spread in wave after wave after wave isn't good for people's livelihoods and mental health either of course.

As the last 16 months have amply demonstrated.

I doubt it.

Some people go on about being worried not to get hospital care when they want it, not much more than self interest. It just shows a lack of other pressures some face.

[quote Jaichangecentfoisdenom]@colouringcrayons - even just wearing masks might make a huge difference, both to individuals and the NHS.[/quote]
I would be happy to do it.

Bit I still don't understand how the NHS copes with the predicted numbers of flu deaths and covid deaths given the usual state of the NHS in winter.

@palacegirl77

Chatting to my neighbour today, Intensive care nurse at Sheffield's Northern General Hospital. All nursing staff have had leave cancelled for July and August. Im hoping this is purely precautionary but doesnt bode well.

SAGE were expecting a wave building from summer even before the Indian variant.

[quote Jaichangecentfoisdenom]@colouringcrayons - even just wearing masks might make a huge difference, both to individuals and the NHS.[/quote]
Masks have little effect on influenza - certainly not the non-medical grade variety worn by laymen.

www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-politics/

No, the argument that allowing covid to spread is bad for jobs and livelihoods presumes the only response possible is lockdown.

Covid only effects jobs and mental health for the general population because the only way of dealing with it our government has is lockdown, and lockdown - not covid - is bad for mental health and jobs.

If deaths and hospitalizations go up to a worrying level, that means vaccinations don't work. If vaccinations don't work, what's the fucking point?

We have over 70% of the population with some level of vaccination. We have about another 10% with immunity due to surviving covid. If we have a 3rd wave, there needs to be a big rethink about how we deal with this.

@palacegirl77

Chatting to my neighbour today, Intensive care nurse at Sheffield's Northern General Hospital. All nursing staff have had leave cancelled for July and August. Im hoping this is purely precautionary but doesnt bode well.

My local CCG CEO thinks it's over in our area because the numbers are really low and we have vaccines now.

It's difficult for me to understand how they got the job.

Don't think there is anything wrong with delaying the next steps till we know what we are actually dealing with.

@MargosKaftan

No, the argument that allowing covid to spread is bad for jobs and livelihoods presumes the only response possible is lockdown.

Covid only effects jobs and mental health for the general population because the only way of dealing with it our government has is lockdown, and lockdown - not covid - is bad for mental health and jobs.

If deaths and hospitalizations go up to a worrying level, that means vaccinations don't work. If vaccinations don't work, what's the fucking point?

We have over 70% of the population with some level of vaccination. We have about another 10% with immunity due to surviving covid. If we have a 3rd wave, there needs to be a big rethink about how we deal with this.

This. Absolutely.

it is a certainty that a third wave is going to happen. There is so much on our side right now; warmer weather, vaccinations, a summer break with schools in a couple of months, better medical treatments. But Autumn when the schools are fully open and more people are mixing indoors is the time when things can go pear-shaped. Add in all the overseas travel returnees, the unknown vaccine protection timescales and new variants we could be in the same old shit all over again. So we can just think fuck it come 21st June and do away with restrictions or continue more cautiously. All those critically vulnerable who had their vaccines at the end of last year may no longer have protection by autumn. We don't know enough as yet and trials for boosters have not even begun.

@Viciouslybashed

Don't think there is anything wrong with delaying the next steps till we know what we are actually dealing with.

A lot of us said that in the run up to May 17th, but our Prime Minister is who he is, and so here we are.

How often do they model though - would be nice to get a model based on what we know now in terms of the effectiveness of the vaccines, number vaccines etc.

PrincessNutsNuts where are we with the second graph you have posted because that one seems fairly positive?

Not sure how the second graph gets viewed as positive as that is with step three alone.

They model for each SAGE meeting officially presumably but will be constantly tweaking it. They will be putting in the new info all the time.

Apparently in some Asian countries its good manners today wear a mask if you have a cold, maybe we should start that here?

Or have a cough, I've never been in such a cough free winter, normally in winter although I have my flu vaccine, I'm avoiding coughing ill people in super markets and this winter r saw no one.

@Quartz2208

How often do they model though - would be nice to get a model based on what we know now in terms of the effectiveness of the vaccines, number vaccines etc.

PrincessNutsNuts where are we with the second graph you have posted because that one seems fairly positive?

We jump sections depending on what the R is doing.

We were in green but now are edging into blue.

The grey line at the bottom is what was expected if we didn't open up on May 17th.

This is an 8 week scenario, they'll do another one well before it ends, or if anything significant changes I expect.

However, it's main purpose was to inform the government of the likely consequences of allowing the R to rise before the government made the decision to open up on May 17th.

So the modelling's job is done. The government made its decision and picked our direction of travel.

So remember that when they start wittering on about "hindsight" and "nobody could've predicted."