Start of third wave - what will this actually mean?

[Moonme]

With so many of the population vaccinated what do you think a third wave means? Will we need another lockdown? 😩

Covid-19: UK in early stages of third wave - scientist www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57304515

modellers got the second wave spot on last summer

Is that the same modellers who predicted 4k deaths a day in November then back tracked within days.

@Peppapeg

im warning people here, this isn't over. The virus does not care what you all want.

Where do we draw the line though? Very very very few of those currently in hospital were double vaccinated, which suggests they are working currently. When everyone has had both do we just fully open? Do we wait forever? Do we live in an infinite cycle of lockdowns and reopening?

Yes but we are a way away from everyone being double vaccinated +3 weeks and India variant is here NOW.

The nature of modelling means that it is difficult to get a precise prediction because of the number of variables involved. They create different predictions based on different scenarios and its not difficult to create one that fits.

For me the Warwick Model doesnt have the right variable and the right points to be seen as accurate. We need to input what data we know based on vaccine efficacy, spread, impact of surge testing, impact of June 21st and then impact of delaying a month. Then see what it is.

@RedcurrantPuff

Given there were 40000 in hospital in total in the second wave, in the middle of winter with hardly anyone vaccinated, are there going to be 15000 admitted daily, in a population with a large number of people vaccinated, during the summer?

You've missed a zero off.

Same here. Not a chance will I social distance any more, they can close businesses again but nothing will stop me from going in people's houses. I suspect many others will feel the same
Same here.

Zero deaths announced in the UK.

Gosh I'm so scared of this third wave.

@RaspberryCoulis I have no idea if there will be a third wave or not. But that comment just makes you sound stupid.

Not as stupid as someone gleefully predicting 15k daily admissions.

@RaspberryCoulis

Not as stupid as someone gleefully predicting 15k daily admissions.

Nobody is gleeful FFS.

We would all have been happier if the idiotic covid deniers had been right all along.

No I haven’t @PrincessNutNuts

There were forty thousand ish people in hospital during the last peak. Not four hundred thousand.

[quote shakingstevensfan]@RaspberryCoulis I have no idea if there will be a third wave or not. But that comment just makes you sound stupid.[/quote]
It’s not actually.

It’s looking at current data and building you view on it.
The poster can’t look at historical data because there isn’t any. With the introduction of the vaccine and the mass roll out, we have not been in this particular scenario before to look back on any point in last two years and say otherwise really.

We can guess.
But this poster is looking at the current facts and building a view. Rather than guessing

But this poster is looking at the current facts and building a view. Rather than guessing

Either both are looking at current facts and building a view, or both are guessing.

Haven't we yet established by now that zero deaths today plays no part in how we can pqredict
this third wave though??

@colouringcrayons

But this poster is looking at the current facts and building a view. Rather than guessing

Either both are looking at current facts and building a view, or both are guessing.

Current situation rather than “facts”.

One based on facts of current situation
One looking at past data that is not relevant because of the vaccine roll out

But this poster is looking at the current facts and building a view. Rather than guessing

Anyone building a view on the current facts knows that deaths today reflect infections a month ago (in the same way that hospitalisations reflect infections about 2 weeks ago). this has been a consistent picture throughout the pandemic.

Someone looking at the current deaths and saying 'cases looked great a month ago and that is reflected in today's data' would be building a reasonable construction on today's facts.

Someone looking at today's deaths and saying 'that means there is no third wave going on in cases at the moment' is, obviously, misinterpreting today's data.

If deaths are still in the low single figures in 2-3 weeks' time, and there is no uptick in them from then on, despite the exponential growth of the Indian variant that will be reflected in the infections figures, that will be GREAT.

We cannot infer anything about the third wave - positive or negative - from today's deaths figures.

@mrshoho

Haven't we yet established by now that zero deaths today plays no part in how we can pqredict this third wave though??

When has there ever been a point immediately preceding the last two waves when there were zero deaths?

There was a zero deaths day (by current definitions) on 30th July last year.

We only need to look at September / October / November to see that that did not rule out the possibility of a subsequent wave. Obviously, we hope that partial, and increasingly full, vaccination of a proportion of the population will damp that wave this time - but we do not yet know, especially as under 30s are very largely unvaccinated at this point.

@Sometimesfraught82

I think you're talking a biased load of old bollocks! You can't just ignore everything that went before, you build that in with what you know of where we are today. That is called LEARNING.

The vaccines do make it somewhat different. But they don't make it entirely different.

Do you think the modellers and the specialists should ignore everything we've learnt so far just to have a nice feeling for a while?

Not everyone is certain of how it will go though

Again this morning there was a different scientist (R4) saying we pretty much will know in the next couple of weeks but can’t say before then

When has there ever been a point immediately preceding the last two waves when there were zero deaths?

I thought you said we shouldn't look back as we have never been in this situation before

But pretty obviously before the first death in wave one there was a very long run of millions of years with no covid deaths in the UK

should ignore everything we've learnt so far just to have a nice feeling for a while?

I do think this is what many would prefer - a period of forgetfulness, a 'freedom day' and a few weeks of unrestricted activities - even if it brings much harsher mitigation measures in its wake. It seems to me that many view any form of continuing 'partial restriction / mitigation' as too hard, and so would prefer a 'boom and bust' scenario to a 'steady as she goes' one.

No I think people want to move on and out not get a nice period and harsher restrictions

Of course not

[quote colouringcrayons]@Sometimesfraught82

I think you're talking a biased load of old bollocks! You can't just ignore everything that went before, you build that in with what you know of where we are today. That is called LEARNING.

The vaccines do make it somewhat different. But they don't make it entirely different.

Do you think the modellers and the specialists should ignore everything we've learnt so far just to have a nice feeling for a while? [/quote]
I agree.

It is critical that you refer to relevant historical data.

However there isn’t any. We didn’t have the vaccine before the second wave

@MarshaBradyo

No I think people want to move on and out not get a nice period and harsher restrictions

Of course not

I am not sure.

I think given three scenarios:

• Move on to the next step, knowing that it can be irreversible because the conditions are right
• Move on to the next step, knowing that it is risky and we might have to return to restrictions
• Delay the next step for a few weeks because the conditions are not right

many on here would actually pick one of the first two, and would not accept delays even if that would give a better possibility of long-term success.

Cant for the second option ie risky one if there was a choice some still might not take further restrictions but a bigger health hit.

Whilst I don’t want delay it doesn’t affect me that much (apart from psychologically maybe, I’ll loathe it but cope) but I can see some sectors will be hard hit and can’t understand their situation.