Will 21st June go ahead?

[Mrgrinch]

I desperately need to know. Of course we won't until they tell us, but what are your thoughts?

Very mixed opinions in the media. Lots of advice to delay but Boris saying there's nothing he can see that would make us deviate from the roadmap.

Can't find the link now, but I think it was in the I newspaper, that said that the cases numbers are rising, and so are hospitalisations. But the hospitalisations are not currently rising at the rate that they were when cases were rising at the same level as now previously.

Iyswim.

@FusionChefGeoff

Hospitalisations are rising but much slower than cases and deaths are still falling.

Side note, deaths are a measure of what was going on a month back.

The second wave began with cases rising in the younger generations - there was a delay before that rise was transmitted to the older generations, and a further delay before hospitalisations started to rise - deaths were the last thing to increase.

It'll be exactly the same again, although vaccines will play a part in changing the numbers involved.

@steppemum

so, all the scientists last summer who went on and on about how they expected it to get less in the summer and then surge again in autumn and winter were just talked bullshit?

Well yes in way. We have NO idea yet whether covid will be seasonal and if it is which season it will attach to predominantly.

Wait - you thought it was just cold weather that brought all the bugs out right? WRONG! Influenza is predominantly a winter bug, but colds are much more prevalent in spring and autumn.

Covid waves have so far been dictated by social distancing restrictions, or the absence of them. Last year, we came out of lockdown in the middle of summer and largely stayed on top of the virus until schools restarted and the Kent variant was the final straw - NOTHING to do with the seasons!

Looking SOLELY at the second wave in the UK, it sort of looks attached to Winter, but contrast the UK graph with France
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

France had a quiet winter because they dealt with the second wave early, unlike the UK who postponed dealing with it till late December. But without vaccines, as France started to open up AFTER winter, the virus surged again. It's the pattern all over the world.

Now, scientists guess that covid MAY become seasonal, and there were certainly concerns that dealing with it over winter at the same time as influenza, could be a strain on the NHS - concerns that didn't actually manifest because influenza was completely contained by the social distancing restrictions in place.

[quote TruelyStruttingHotpants]This expert has an interesting view of the figures. Goodness only knows at this stage if he is right. Not someone I have followed so can't vouch if he is any good.

*Covid cases look set to jump as R rises above 1

But experts say R looks to have peaked and vaccines will soon be dragging new cases back down again*

inews.co.uk/news/science/covid-cases-look-set-to-jump-as-r-rises-above-1-1030004[/quote]
But experts say R looks to have peaked

Err - let's take a look here - they are quoting Karl Frison, a brain imaging guy - WHAT the fuck does he know about epidemics?? And how is one unqualified fuckwit with a huge ego translated into "experts" plural??

R is actually on the way up - If you look at regions where the Indian variant is spreading, it's around 1.5. In other regions it's still below 1 which will pull down the national figure for the moment - but since we're not containing the Indian variant, eventually that 1.5 will be everywhere.

Vaccinations are unlikely to curb the rise - for starters it takes a while to jab everyone. Then you have to wait 2-3 weeks before the vaccine has any impact. And even then, with the Indian variant, the impact on people catching and spreading the virus seems to be well below what it was with the Kent variant.

I hate to say it, but June 21st is toast. Everyone in authority knows it. The government are awaiting evidence that is easier to sell to the public before announcing anything, but it's a mathematical certainty.

Even that is unlikely to be enough though, and the more we dilly dally, the worse the eventual cure will be.

@strangeshapedpotato I tend to agree with you.

Also furious at the ever irresponsible media for punting “freedom day” as the latest two word soundbite, when actually bar a few big events and returning to work, the majority of people are living pretty freely.

I think we need to be focusing on what we have got not what we haven’t. A few weeks to get more people vaccinated is a small price to pay compared to reversing restrictions later on.

There’s no chance, otherwise Boris and Carrie would’ve waited another month and had a massive guest list.
Case numbers are rising, hospitalisations will follow suit. Hopefully deaths won’t get nearly as high as they were thanks to vaccinations, but nothing good can come of setting us all loose with all that going on.

"I hate to say it" translates as "actually I'm loving saying it"

I'll reiterate what I said on a previous thread:

Old Covid had an R0 of approximately 3.

The Kent Variant was approximately 60% more transmissible than Old Covid, hence giving it an R0 of 3 x 1.6 = 4.8.

The Indian Variant is approximately 60% (though that may well be an underestimate) more transmissible than the Kent Variant, giving it an R0 of 4.8 x 1.6 = 7.68.

Which suggests that we need 1 - 1/7.68 = 87% of the population vaccinated to keep R below 1 and stop the Third Wave without reintroducing restrictions. We are less than half way there yet.

Anyone still think we should be opening up on the 21st?

It is not yet known how transmissible the delta variant is.

"And how is one unqualified fuckwit with a huge ego translated into "experts" plural??"

Those insults seem somewhat uncalled for!

What difference does it make, the precedence has been set, there will be more bollocks.

People on here and everywhere squabbling over shite neither side has any actual clue about. Waffling on about science when they have read an article here or there. Terraformed by tories should be the tagine of mn.

I always like Moroccan food.

@tobee

"I hate to say it" translates as "actually I'm loving saying it"

I agree. That poster is practically relishing in it.

I thought Boris came out yesterday saying that the data still looks good. So who knows?!

What I can’t figured out is what is the plan if the vaccines are found to be ineffective at any point?

Then what happens?

I didn’t read the article (I was just scrolling through Facebook) and saw a headline that some expert said that a vaccine evading variant WILL happen, it’s just a matter of time!?

If that’s the case then what?!

Does anyone seriously believe that this life is sustainable forever?!

I can (just about) cope with idea of this being temporary. Not forever.

The thought that one day Covid will be just one of those things like a cold or flu is the only thing keeping me going.

If Covid is seriously going to dominate our lives like this ‘forever’ then really what is the point?

Maybe I should have read the article but quite frankly getting sick of the conflicting news reports wrote purely to evoke emotion.

Your original question was will 21st June go ahead. I think we can all safely say, it is looking increasingly unlikely. Boris should never have put a date on it.

@SonnetForSpring

Your original question was will 21st June go ahead. I think we can all safely say, it is looking increasingly unlikely. Boris should never have put a date on it.

I disagree, Boris spoke only yesterday saying he still sees nothing in the data that would make him deviate.

*What I can’t figured out is what is the plan if the vaccines are found to be ineffective at any point?

Then what happens?*

The vaccine manufacturers are already working on tweaking the vaccines for the variants we have seen, and will be able to do so again. Vaccines working or not is not a sudden change - most likely they get less effective over time as the virus changes but then the most vulnerable groups at least can be given a booster. This is what happens with the flu vaccine every year so it's perfectly doable.

The risk of mutations and new variants is the reason we need to make sure vaccines are available everywhere across the world though. There have been new variants so quickly because the virus has been spreading very quickly. Once a larger proportion of people are vaccinated and transmission rates go down across the world thanks to the vaccines and other measures, we won't see as many variants in such a short space of time so any booster vaccination programme will be able to keep up.

The risk of variants emerging here is one reason we should not just give up on all restrictions now and let the virus spread through the younger population, though. It's also irresponsible to travel to countries where vaccines are not yet widely available and take our dominant covid strains there to allow it to spread more.

@tobee 🤣

Thanks @nordica I figured (hoped) there must be some sort of plan or contingency.

That all makes sense and probably (hopefully) was in the article I skipped past.

Don’t listen to those scientists. They’re the wrong scientists. Listen to me and my special scientists.

Why are you listening to Boris. He loves a u turn. Give him a week or 2.

The Indian Variant is approximately 60% (though that may well be an underestimate) more transmissible than the Kent Variant, giving it an R0 of 4.8 x 1.6 = 7.68.

I read somewhere that the indian variant was thought to be somewhere between 10% and 60% more transmissable.....I dont think its been confirmed that its 60%?

I read somewhere that the indian variant was thought to be somewhere between 10% and 60% more transmissable

See, why stick to facts when just referencing 60 sounds much more scary?

Don’t listen to those scientists. They’re the wrong scientists. Listen to me and my special scientists.

😆

Boris spoke only yesterday saying he still sees nothing in the data that would make him deviate.

Boris is lying. The data is literally there for anyone to see.