There are two relevant risks here, each with a few variables associated:
These vary by age and clinical vulnerability, but also importantly by level and type of Covid circulating in the community.
These vary only slightly by age, but there may also be specific medical contraindications for some people.
The balance between these two depends not only on who you are (age, clinical vulnerability), which has been discussed extensively here, but also on how much Covid is circulating in the community and what variant, and on the effectiveness of the vaccine.
So consider two different scenarios:
- Very highly effective vaccine, very high circulating Covid of a variant that infects your specific age group very well.
In this scenario, even if there is a small but real risk from the vaccine, the balance of risks is well in favour of having this particular vaccine.
- Less effective vaccine, low circulating Covid of a variant that spreads at an average level through your specific age group.
In this scenario, even if the risk from the vaccine is LOWER than in the first scenario, the balance of risks is not in favour of having this vaccine.
So it is entirely possible that, if the Indian variant runs out of control and shows high infectivity and more serious illness amongst younger age groups, actually the balance of risks will swing back to 'inject everyone, of any age, with AZ NOW as we have lots of it and it can be administered everywhere with no storage limitations'. It's a dynamic sitation and depends as much on the state of play with Covid in the country as on you as an individual.