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Data, Stat, Daily Numbers started 26th May 2021

986 replies

boys3 · 26/05/2021 10:54

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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OP posts:
Thread gallery
72
Fleek · 07/06/2021 18:22

Kent is 60% more transmissible than Alpha.

It's just been updated as being thought to be 40% more transmissible. It was in the news yesterday.

Fleek · 07/06/2021 18:23

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57373902

Here you go, source if you need it.

Fleek · 07/06/2021 18:24

I've discussed the maths elsewhere

Oh and I've seen at least posters pointing out how your maths is actually wrong. Just in case people read what you're writing and are scared

wintertravel1980 · 07/06/2021 18:24

Kent is 60% more transmissible than Alpha.

No - it is a categorical but unfounded statement. The exact transmission advantage is still a topic of debate (assuming we are talking about Delta and Alpha/Kent).

The 60% is based on the old estimate for secondary attack rates in the PHE report that has now gone down to 50%.

wintertravel1980 · 07/06/2021 18:32

87% needed for herd immunity.

In fact, the herd immunity for Covid is very difficult to estimate because of the transmission overdispersion (the "k-factor"). All traditional models for calculating herd immunity assume the virus is spread homogeneously (i.e. every person on average infects the same number of people). As we know, the picture for Covid is entirely different. Even with the emergence of new variants, we continue to see "super spreading" patterns:

www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

What we need to stop the pandemic is to vaccinate/neutralise super spreaders (typically - 16-50 year olds).

ICanSmellSummerComing · 07/06/2021 18:35

@YoshimisMum

Thank you, I'm not good at putting stats into perspective.

I'm in the 40 to 45 group, second dose this week

TheSunIsStillShining · 07/06/2021 18:53

It's exams this week at our son's school. He said he was probably one of only 5 in the whole yeargroup of 180 who wore masks.
As soon as DfE guidance came out we got a halleluja email that this abomination was over and now kids can be without masks and it's not recommended to have one on. Of course all pointing to dfe and phe so we can't fault them is things go sideways.

Firefliess · 07/06/2021 20:54

Is there any data on who is most likely to be a superspreader @winter? I've read similarly that a small number of people infect lots of others, whilst most people infect noone, but not seen anything on ages. I was wondering whether older people would spread most because they typically get sickest, but you're suggesting that younger adults spread more? If you're right we'd expect to see a bigger impact on transmission as we get the last of the young adults jabbed

everythingthelighttouches · 07/06/2021 21:05

There appears to be some confusion.

The “Kent” variant IS alpha.

It is 60% more transmissible than the earlier variants.

The “Indian” variant is delta. They are still firming up the data but recent estimates put it at 40-60% more transmissible than alpha.

everythingthelighttouches · 07/06/2021 21:07

This is a rather simplistic diagram, for all the reasons winter just mentioned. Nevertheless, it gets an important point about the impact of transmissibility across.

Data, Stat, Daily Numbers started 26th May 2021
NannyAndJohn · 07/06/2021 22:19

@Fleek

I've discussed the maths elsewhere

Oh and I've seen at least posters pointing out how your maths is actually wrong. Just in case people read what you're writing and are scared

Not wrong, just simplified.

Calculating the true value of R0 involves hundreds of equations and hundreds of lines of code (see here for example: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042717300209).

Though my simplified figure will still be in the general ballpark.

sirfredfredgeorge · 07/06/2021 22:22

Is there any data on who is most likely to be a superspreader @winter?

61 year old woman for the Korean church example
64 year old woman www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275998/
71 year old man
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/noida/is-john-the-super-spreader-in-noida-uk-man-says-he-is-healthy-has-no-symptoms/articleshow/74880042.cms
70 year old preacher
www.ijph.in/viewimage.asp?img=IndianJPublicHealth_2020_64_6_139_285614_t1.jpg

Now, of course one of the things is that super spreader events are not necessarily that easy to identify, the religious gatherings are possibly easier, so the bias may be in the source.

But I'm not sure we can say that 15-50 year olds are more common based on any data I can see - however I can certainly see that in general such age groups have wider contacts than other age groups.

CommanderBurnham · 07/06/2021 22:24

@wintertravel1980

agree about k number. And it's the k number that's low which means the threshold for herd immunity is almost impossibly high.

There's a bbc horizon programme from last year that explains it really well.

NannyAndJohn · 07/06/2021 22:25

@wintertravel1980

87% needed for herd immunity.

In fact, the herd immunity for Covid is very difficult to estimate because of the transmission overdispersion (the "k-factor"). All traditional models for calculating herd immunity assume the virus is spread homogeneously (i.e. every person on average infects the same number of people). As we know, the picture for Covid is entirely different. Even with the emergence of new variants, we continue to see "super spreading" patterns:

www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

What we need to stop the pandemic is to vaccinate/neutralise super spreaders (typically - 16-50 year olds).

All traditional models for calculating herd immunity assume the virus is spread homogeneously

Not exactly.

The Warwick University model, for example, makes use of a "contact matrix" which allows for the fact that different age groups infect each other at different rates. For example, an infectious 5 year old child is more likely to infect a susceptible 5 year old child than say a susceptible 50 year old adult (because a 5 year old child spends a lot of the day cooped up maskless with loads of other 5 year old children).

Whatever9999 · 07/06/2021 22:36

@Fleek

I've discussed the maths elsewhere

Oh and I've seen at least posters pointing out how your maths is actually wrong. Just in case people read what you're writing and are scared

I think I was one of those that pointed out the maths was wrong, and not just wrong but out by quite a lot. They were multiplying 1.6 by 1.6 (ie, simply multiplying for the increased transmission rate) when it should have been 1+(0.6×1.4), which takes the fact that alpha is 60% more transmissible than the original varient and then delta is 40% more transmissible than delta, which means that delta is 84% more transmissible than the original, not 120% as in their calculations.
TruelyStruttingHotpants · 07/06/2021 22:40

What we are seeing on a localised level in hotspots. A massive uptick of cases for a few weeks then levelling off. Followed by the decrease in cases. Is believed to be the virus hitting the vaccine wall we are building. The general thought is we will see this happen in most the country. The R rate will level out fairly quickly.

If this turns out to be correct and early signs appear positive. Then the transmitabllity and the herd immunity figures really don't matter. Other than from a scientific or curiosity point of view of course Smile

lurker101 · 08/06/2021 00:17

@Piggywaspushed

Also , when you look at how many turned up to Twickenham for those off chance jabs , I think people may be wrong about younger people. They want their lives back.
I couldn’t agree more! We were at Twickenham on BH Monday to get my bf vaccinated, after weeks of checking online for him to become eligible we were overjoyed to get an 18+ centre. When we were there I would guess that most in the queue were under 25 in appearance. It was great that so many “young” people were there. For what it’s worth, we’re in our 20s and we’ve not got any friends or peers that aren’t getting vaccinated at the first opportunity. More people are sharing tips on where/how to get vaccinated!
thatgingergirl · 08/06/2021 07:25

DD (26) gets her vaccine on Thursday - so pleased.

thatgingergirl · 08/06/2021 07:37

Wrong thread, sorry!

Firefliess · 08/06/2021 08:01

@TruelyStruttingHotpants

What we are seeing on a localised level in hotspots. A massive uptick of cases for a few weeks then levelling off. Followed by the decrease in cases. Is believed to be the virus hitting the vaccine wall we are building. The general thought is we will see this happen in most the country. The R rate will level out fairly quickly.

If this turns out to be correct and early signs appear positive. Then the transmitabllity and the herd immunity figures really don't matter. Other than from a scientific or curiosity point of view of course Smile

That's a nice (hopeful!) take on things. But this far I think it's only been a very small number is places that have spiked and then give down (Bolton and Bedford, I'm not sure if anywhere else) They spiked early so it's possible they had a level of public health attention that might not be so sustainable everywhere. One to watch.

It's an interesting point though, that the models predicting a third and serious wave in terms of hospital admissions do so on the basis of much higher case rates than ever seen before (because they're mainly in the young, and vaccination prevents serious disease better than it does infection). We don't really know whether very high case rates may have some sort of natural limit - for instance if people start altering their behaviour to avoid catching it, schools are closing, etc.

Stilltalkstotrees · 08/06/2021 08:45

My niece & nephew (18 & 19, SE London) have been offered vaccines! Postcode lottery or attempting to put a lid on a possible London surge?

Ilovecrumpets · 08/06/2021 09:05

I think places like Blackburn and now SW London will be ones to watch - low vaccine uptake.

The other cohort being forgotten in all of this again is of course school kids. Lots of bubbles bursting in primaries round here at the moment ( before half term and one I know of has gone today). I guess hopefully this is the last half term of such disrupted schooling - but whilst we still have whole classes isolating in primaries as cases rise the whole prioritising education does ring a bit hollow ( I do however completely get the counter economic argument of the necessity of opening up - would just be nice to have it acknowledged that living with higher cases means an impact on kids - again ( linked to the woeful catch up funding as well ..).

Sorry that over Smile

TruelyStruttingHotpants · 08/06/2021 09:52

My London borough has only just crawled over 50%. So this is going to be a little interesting to watch. He probably have a fair amount of immunity from previous high cases in schools and colleges. Every little helps🙃

TruelyStruttingHotpants · 08/06/2021 09:52

*we

sandyandkirsten · 08/06/2021 09:58

My niece & nephew (18 & 19, SE London) have been offered vaccines! Postcode lottery or attempting to put a lid on a possible London surge?

So has my 20 year old brother in E London