Data, Stat, Daily Numbers started 26th May 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Also , when you look at how many turned up to Twickenham for those off chance jabs , I think people may be wrong about younger people. They want their lives back.

Yes probably pussycat especially of he wants his phone fixed, food on the table and an occasional taxi service

The DNs and their mates are all keen to be jabbed.
Many of one DN's entire block of uni flats had covid, and they don't want to get it again. Lots of younger ones also still have elderly grandparents who they worry about passing it on to. I expect it'll follow trends where areas with high take-up have that drop only slightly for under 30s and areas with low take-up with older people have the same again with younger ones. The surge test/vaccinate buses will go around those areas, and there will need to be a push on various communities. Mosques and temples seem to be on the ball now; the churches need to come next. If people in our area bear similarities with elsewhere, engagement with the Eastern European communities will be important.

FWIW, NHS Digital have recorded zero hospitals deaths in their reporting today. I say FWIW, because it's Monday so reporting lags likely, and we don't know what PHE will say later so it may not be zero reported at 4pm.

But still a good thing, I think.

Always a good thing to have as few deaths as possible!

@ILookAtTheFloor

My district has dropped, odd. I know of a handful of cases at a secondary school and feeder primary (sibling) in early May that didn't result in more cases.

I'm just gonna come out and say where- Chelmsford.

@ILookAtTheFloor

Chelmsford

Essex, just off the A12.

I don’t think you were referring to geography though.

First slide I posted, East of England region, is where you should find it.

Thank you boys, I had found it, had I read it wrong? The percentage of Delta looks to have dropped?

Those interviews on R4 were also worried about side effects: clotting and potential effects on fertility/birth defects.

This is where the SM influencers, IF properly selected, could come in....

@ILookAtTheFloor certainly the number of Delta cases picked up in Chelmsford had halved from 12 to 6 in the most recent two week period. The number of cases surveillance tested had also fallen:

Last 2 was 12 cases surveillance tested

Prior 2 weeks 19 cases surveillance

Going back a further 2 wks 14 cases surveillance tested.

The total number of confirmed cases (all variants) in Chelmsford was 26 in the most recent two weeks covered by the Sanger data, 40 in the prior 2 wks, and 49 in the two weeks before that.

Rates in Essex overall have just gone back into low double figures, and are for now well below the median level in England.

Just on Vaccs my DS1 got his first jab invite today - local GP consortium. He’s 25.

@boys3

Can I just check what I am looking at on the tables above? Are the numbers total positives and the percentage the number of those positive that are delta, or are the numbers the number of Delta variant cases and a percentage of the total cases?

Eg Ipswich last two weeks says 5 cases, 50 percent Delta variant. Does that mean there were 10 cases altogether, of which 5 (50percent) were delta, or does it mean about 2.5 of those 5 positives were delta (I realise the figures don't quite work there!)

Thanks. Stockport has shot up by the looks of things.

@ILookAtTheFloor

Thank you boys, I had found it, had I read it wrong? The percentage of Delta looks to have dropped?

I'm in chelmsford and the last time I checked it appeared the percentage had halved - from approx 77% w/e 8th to about 36% w/e 22nd. (Working from memory so numbers may not be exact!)

Thanks @boys3 one positive at least!

@JanFebAnyMonth

Worrying report on R4 at the moment about vaccine hesitancy/ scepticism in the under 30s. They don’t trust the government. The next stage in the programme is not going to be as smooth as the previous ones.

I don't see this in reality at all. I don't know I single person under 30 who will refuse the vaccine.

Who knows though. Just prey enough get it to take us too that herd immunity number.

The herd immunity number was recently put at 80% by Paul Surname-forgotten from Sage, which will require some teen vaccinations to reach 54.4m as it's greater than the number of adults. (Assuming we ignore natural immunity.)

The herd immunity number was recently put at 80% by Paul Surname-forgotten from Sage

That is incompatible with the statement that Delta is 40% more transmissible than Alpha, which was X% more transmissible than the original. 40% more transmissible than original alone puts herd immunity above 80%. (80% with simple distribution implies an R of ~4.2 but the original was 3.5 so 40% more transmissible is 4.9, and that assumes kent was still 3.5 - also with the super spreaders you need higher levels again (since it's more likely to spread into new groups in the super spreading situation)

Maybe SAGE don't believe it's more transmissible?

Or maybe SAGE were saying 80% with considerable continued restrictions that limited R beyond it's natural level?

[quote WyldStallions]@boys3

Can I just check what I am looking at on the tables above? Are the numbers total positives and the percentage the number of those positive that are delta, or are the numbers the number of Delta variant cases and a percentage of the total cases?

Eg Ipswich last two weeks says 5 cases, 50 percent Delta variant. Does that mean there were 10 cases altogether, of which 5 (50percent) were delta, or does it mean about 2.5 of those 5 positives were delta (I realise the figures don't quite work there!)

Thanks. Stockport has shot up by the looks of things.[/quote]
@WyldStallions

The numbers are

the numbers of delta variant cases picked up through standard surveillance

The percentage is

The number of delta cases picked up through standard surveillance for a two week period / the total number of cases that underwent surveillance testing for that two week period.

Taking your Ipswich example:

10 cases in total from the period 16th to 29th May were genome tested. This figure is not shown in the tables I posted.

5 of these were Delta to give the 50%.

The other 5 were all the Kent variant, again not shown on the table.

In total Ipswich had for specimen dates 16th to 29th May inclusive 19 cases in total. Again this figure not shown in the table.

I did think about showing total number of cases genome surveiiled, plus total overall cases but thought it might just become a blur of numbers. However I can add one or both in if people would find it useful to see.

The final thing to note is that the Sanger figures for w/e 29 May are likely not 100% complete.

In the download made available this morning Delta totals 4133 for w/e 22 May. In the file released last Monday the figure for w/e 22 May was 3867. So the w/e 22 May total has been increased by about 7%. I’d expect similar for 29 May in next week’s update. However I have not looked at how the extra 7% were distributed.

I don't think it's possible to calculate a precise figure for herd immunity to suddenly kick in and obliterate Covid. It depends whether those we don't vaccinate spread it less than those we do (some evidence of this with young children), whether the vaccinated people who catch Covid anyway spread it as much as unvaccinated people (some evidence that they don't via a recent study on infection of family members) and whether the unvaccinated people mix significantly with each other rather than at random across the population - very strong evidence that they do via the existence of schools (also religious/cultural groups with lower vaccination and friendship groups) This aspect is very hard to model and, if modelled, would lead to a variety of herd immunity thresholds depending on who the immune people were. The "natural" Ro of any strain is also a property not just of its natural infectiousness but also of the extent of normal mixing within society. So it varies between societies (and probably also between different parts of the UK) It seems unlikely to me that we'll all return to living our lives exactly as we did in early 2020 - they'll be some working from home, mask wearing in public transport, testing and isolation of sick people, etc. All of this affects the proportion of non-immune people that as a society we can support whilst keeping case rates from rocketing.

@PatriciaHolm

I'm thinking we could get quite a bump today in LFT cases, as the schools are going back - I know minus most of Year 11 and 13, but looking at the LFT numbers I suspect a lot of students weren't testing (or reporting) over half term, and will have tested yesterday before school today. Which could bump today.

I was wondering the same. LFD tests have been on a downward drift. That is to say LFDs that people have reported as taking.

Hancock made an LFD plea at the end of his Andrew Marr interview yesterday.

So with schools back, albeit with two of the three oldest year groups now missing the numbers that come out; gosh in the next half hour, time flies on MN, what better place to be ; will be interesting to see. Cannot see the two million mark being breached personally. And that has only ever been done once before.

@sirfredfredgeorge

The herd immunity number was recently put at 80% by Paul Surname-forgotten from Sage

That is incompatible with the statement that Delta is 40% more transmissible than Alpha, which was X% more transmissible than the original. 40% more transmissible than original alone puts herd immunity above 80%. (80% with simple distribution implies an R of ~4.2 but the original was 3.5 so 40% more transmissible is 4.9, and that assumes kent was still 3.5 - also with the super spreaders you need higher levels again (since it's more likely to spread into new groups in the super spreading situation)

Maybe SAGE don't believe it's more transmissible?

No idea.

Here's the article, Peter Openshaw (pah! Peter/ Paul whatever....) was using the latest ONS figure with obviously some view about how much vaccine immunity is still to build and how much natural immunity is included.

m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/coronavirus-herd-immunity-variants-openshaw_uk_60abc639e4b03135479a082f/

Thanks boys3 - very helpful.

inews.co.uk/news/politics/over-25s-book-covid-vaccine-england-jab-roll-out-under-30s-who-get-now-1039111

Talking of schools, 9 year 12s from my place all tested positive last week after LFT on Thursday. PCR positive. 9 is a lot...