Data, Stat, Daily Numbers started 26th May 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@IcedPurple There are a number of reasons there is still concern about a wave that leads to high impact on healthcare despite vaccine progress and this increased risk of hospitalisation is one of the factors.

Everyone is aware of vaccine progress.

[quote colouringcrayons]@IcedPurple There are a number of reasons there is still concern about a wave that leads to high impact on healthcare despite vaccine progress and this increased risk of hospitalisation is one of the factors.

Everyone is aware of vaccine progress.[/quote]
The fact remains that there have been very few hospitalisations among those who are fully vaccinated.

@IcedPurple Is your position then that the high hospitalisations scenarios that have been modelled are impossible?

[quote colouringcrayons]@IcedPurple Is your position then that the high hospitalisations scenarios that have been modelled are impossible?[/quote]
Nothing is impossible. But the evidence thus far paints a picture of hospital admissions occurring among much younger demographics than in previous 'waves', with very few admissions among those fully vaccinated. I think that's more relevant than the worst case scenario 'modelling'so many here are obsessed with.

The only published models have assumptions which have been proven to be false, so therefore any conclusions based on those models must also be false.

Sadly the people who "market" the models including PHE, do not publish them enough to re-run them with assumptions that are now closer to what is known. So we don't know, but models are not the things that suggest its true.

With current effectiveness of the vaccine, it is very difficult to get hospitalisations high enough to overwhelm (the individual chances of requiring hospitalisation is too low that way more people than previously would need to catch at it the same time, and even "no imposed measures" does not appear to facilitate that.

That doesn't mean restrictions wouldn't be warranted, but we are certainly near the point where it's not completely obvious that restrictions are better for health than no-restrictions unlike previously. So the people calling for restrictions need to make sure they tell us how many people their restrictions will harm, and what harm it will do.

Funnily enough that first statement doesn't follow

All assumptions made during models are quite likely to be false. All models are wrong

The question is , are they close enough that the model is useful ?

I'm quite interested in the demographics of any doubly vaccinated people getting ill.

How long since they had the vaccine? (has it had time to take effect vs is it wearing off?)

What age are they?

What other vulnerabilities do they have?

Also, people who are especially vulnerable may well still be shielding in significant numbers, & this would make them unlikely to get ill, quite apart from anything else.

@herecomesthsun

I'm quite interested in the demographics of any doubly vaccinated people getting ill.

How long since they had the vaccine? (has it had time to take effect vs is it wearing off?)

What age are they?

What other vulnerabilities do they have?

Also, people who are especially vulnerable may well still be shielding in significant numbers, & this would make them unlikely to get ill, quite apart from anything else.

There aren't detailed statistics yet, possibly because there haven't been enough of them at 3.5% or whatever the number was. A friend caught covid 8-10 days after her second Pfizer, but that was Kent variant.

Yes, I think the information will emerge a bit piece meal.

Another reason why I like to look at the data and stats for myself and discuss with likeminded (not necessarily agreeing but also interested in the data) people on this thread.

From NHS boss Chris Hopson who was widely quoted yesterday and has taken to Twitter:

“Always a bit nerve wracking doing media interviews as you never how they will get “boiled down” for summary headlines. Wince from me at BBC Radio news headline saying that I think vaccines have broken chain between covid-19 and hospitalisations/death. Full version is Increasing confidence that, for this current pattern of variants, vaccines have broken the chain between covid-19 and the “potentially NHS overwhelming” level of hospitalisations and mortality we saw in previous waves. Deeply conscious that people still dying from covid-19“

I wasn’t following him before but he has just written an outstanding thread on not whether we should be opening on 21st June but what metrics we should be using to make that decision.

Well worth a read.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1401403305809547269.html

that makes a lot of sense!

That is good everything, thank you for posting it.

@sirfredfredgeorge will particularly like point 24!

That's interesting about Chris Hopson as his BBC version of the quote is doing the rounds on MN.

@everythingthelighttouches thanks for that link. Imho Chris Hopson has summed up the current situation and relevant questions that need to be considered right now very succinctly.

Sadly I doubt he’s going to get the clarity he wants....

My daughter is supposed to have a birthday party on the 26th at a soft play, I was going to give invites out tomorrow. Do you think I should just cancel it? She will be absolutely gutted 😩

TBH part of me is just like, I'm going to do these things while I can in case everything shuts down again.

@Needanewhat

TBH part of me is just like, I'm going to do these things while I can in case everything shuts down again.

Yes! Make hay while the sun shines, definitely!

Is she old enough to know how long it is til the 26th - altho I guess that’s near her birthday? Because it might be a case of just postponing it for a few weeks. (There is a whole thread about someone else’s identical dilemma, do a search if you’re interested?)

Can I ask (not provocatively) if individuals were more self-restricting, wouldn't we get in a better place sooner where more things can be done safely?

If I had a small kid, I'd go for an outdoor/park party atm. Just because soft play will have many kids' fluids on them potentially, while outdoor party will limit the fluid exchange to those who are invited. And also: outdoor is always better for small kids - if it's a possibility.
I have a nov born, so always looked at summer babies with a slight jealousy that they have many more options for bday parties :)

My problem with the argument that "if gov allows it why shouldn't we do it?" is that we have seen how incompetent this gov has been.

Thanks everything for the Chris Hopson thread link. It asks all the right questions.

[quote everythingthelighttouches]I wasn’t following him before but he has just written an outstanding thread on not whether we should be opening on 21st June but what metrics we should be using to make that decision.

Well worth a read.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1401403305809547269.html[/quote]
Thanks for this link.
I've just jumped back into this thread after a long spell not keeping up with you hardcore gang Was wondering if anyone could expand on this from that thread "Summer weather has also added extra immediate demand". Why is this?

@Quarantino - people do daft stuff in the sunshine that leads to things needing hospital care, or timewasters who go to A&E unnecessarily. Broken/ sprained limbs and bleeding from gardening, boats, jet ski, waterski, rock climb, bikes, other sports; as well as other injuries from BBQ, sunburn/ heatstroke, excess drinking, road traffic accidents.

"Summer weather has also added extra immediate demand". Why is this?

I did wonder, the temperatures are not high enough for the heat wave stress on the ill
www.england.nhs.uk/2021/06/heat-health-watch-alert-28/
So it's presumably not that - maybe it just the increase in accidents and injury?

The NHS models
www.england.nhs.uk/ourwork/demand-and-capacity/models/demand-and-capacity-emergency-department-model/
Seem to just have "hot day" increasing demand, but doesn't really say why.