Data, Stat, Daily Numbers started 26th May 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

nanny yes I agree. The increase in risk added to the increase transmissibility plus some vaccine immune escape is worrying

@Frazzled2207

Good news tweet from Covid Fact Check.

Useful info - in England, there are 779 COVID patients in hospital, down from 801 yesterday. There’s been 49 new admissions of patients with Covid in the past 24 hours but 110 were discharged.

In Bolton, the number of hospital patients has dropped to 39, down from 49 a week ago.

Isn't this just the hospitalisations showing the same pattern as infections - the Alpha wave dropping away, whilst the Delta wave picks up? So it will, as cases did, look like it is improving for a bit. But PHE/SAGE/government will see the two variants separately presumably?

I'm concerned that people are seeking reassurance where there really isn't much.

The data release does seem to include info about schools but it's not very clear (or at least not for me). can anyone extrapolate/interpret?

It is highly likely that Delta is significantly more transmissible than Alpha.

But it looks like "significantly more transmissible" is more likely to end up in the 30-50% range instead of 50-70%.

30-50% is much less problematic than 50-70% based on the modelling. Warwick 40-50% scenario still results in a large wave but they have assumed limited (90%) vaccine protection against hospitalisations.

Re: increased virulence - I would wait until we have a larger data set. We have seen a similar phenomenon with B.117/Alpha. Initial results appeared to indicate the variant was more deadly but further analysis could not confirm this.

I'm concerned that people are seeking reassurance where there really isn't much.

I find a lot of reassurance in falling Bolton and Bedford's numbers.

It is likely that things in other areas might get worse before they get better but Bolton's data suggests it might be possible to reverse the trend without lockdowns / NPIs through surge vaccinations and voluntary behaviour modifications. Cases in Bolton started falling before half term so people cannot really use schools as the explanation (although I am sure a few twitter enthusiasts will).

Depressed now after being on a high all day out and about in London. Everybody thinks it's over.

I do agree wintertravel1980 we are still in the wait and see what the next few weeks data shows ( but the indications are on the more concerning side of the line than hoped for - could of course have been worse!)

Let’s not be too downhearted. Deaths are 5.3% down on a 7 day average, and hospitalisations are up 3% - both from a low base. So far the hospitalisation rate isn’t shadowing the case rate which has been rising since early May.

@Cactusali

Let’s not be too downhearted. Deaths are 5.3% down on a 7 day average, and hospitalisations are up 3% - both from a low base. So far the hospitalisation rate isn’t shadowing the case rate which has been rising since early May.

I agree with you. It’s bad but it could def be much much worse. If 50% of the people needing hospitals would be those vaccinated then I’d be really worried. Right now a big majority are those with no vaccines , yes I know we’re still 25% away from having people vaccinated with one at least but we are on rhe way of having higher amount of people vaccinated and this should continue helping on reducing the spread

I doubt they would change tack anyway but I wonder if the PHE findings hold how this affects the JCVI assessment of risk/benefit for AZ and younger cohorts.

Urgh. Deleted post. My main worry is the 5-9 increase, this reminds me of Kent/alpha impact on secondary from the increased 10-14 infections. I think/hope we are in the "localised outbreaks" stage, but they will be quite disruptive in the run to summer holidays. Then I think/ hope we'll be golden.

Sensible heads, my cleaner is still "waiting to see" to be vaccinated and has a secondary pupil son... She wears a mask and mostly keeps distance in other rooms, but occasionally pass in corridors. How likely are we to be asked to isolate if she gets covid?

@vera99

Depressed now after being on a high all day out and about in London. Everybody thinks it's over.

I’m depressed too! Except for going on holiday tomorrow (in an area with very low cases) so determined to enjoy myself as it it’s the only holiday we get this year! I’m in GM and even if we don’t get many hospitalisations or deaths the way we’re going there are going to be school bubbles bursting all over the place and we’ll be back to homeschool 😩😩😩

@MRex

Sensible heads, my cleaner is still "waiting to see" to be vaccinated and has a secondary pupil son... She wears a mask and mostly keeps distance in other rooms, but occasionally pass in corridors. How likely are we to be asked to isolate if she gets covid?

If masked and not in same room I think you should be find In terms of mandatory self isolation

Thanks

@MRex

Urgh. Deleted post. My main worry is the 5-9 increase, this reminds me of Kent/alpha impact on secondary from the increased 10-14 infections. I think/hope we are in the "localised outbreaks" stage, but they will be quite disruptive in the run to summer holidays. Then I think/ hope we'll be golden.

I agree. Looking at the heat maps it seems to be effecting 5-9s more than other outbreaks, like the Kent did for 10-14s. I'm hoping this is just a blip and not a sign of it effecting younger ones.

And bit of non-data.
I submitted a postal test on Sunday morning (for Zoe)-should have been picked up midday on Sunday. Got the results very late yesterday. I wonder whether bank holiday has shifted some results from earlier in the week.

Just wondering if lack of LFTs for primary age has any bearing on the currently higher rates now? Probably not though because it’s only about a quarter of secondary students who are doing them, or at least doing them and having them reported.

MRex

The way I understand it is that, unfortunately, cleaners are considered "close contacts" even when they are able to socially distance. Looks like NHS and rule makers are still worried about the highly remote risk of fomite transmission (old convictions die hard):

www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-and-treatment/when-to-self-isolate-and-what-to-do/

What does close contact mean?
Examples of close contact include:

- close face to face contact (under 1 metre) for any length of time – including talking to them or coughing on them
- being within 1 to 2 metres of each other for more than 15 minutes – including travelling in a small vehicle
- spending lots of time in your home, such as cleaning it.

@MRex

Sensible heads, my cleaner is still "waiting to see" to be vaccinated and has a secondary pupil son... She wears a mask and mostly keeps distance in other rooms, but occasionally pass in corridors. How likely are we to be asked to isolate if she gets covid?

I think I'd be inclined to start dropping hints about preferring her to be vaccinated if I was you. You should be ok in terms of required isolation if you stay away from her but there's still a bit of a risk to you as she'll be inevitably touching everything. I have a cleaner who's not vaccinated yet, but that's because she's under 30. She was asking me the other day about whether I've had mine yet and I was taking enthusiastically about it, hoping she'll get hers when she can.

What is the current data surrounding natural immunity and reinfection as well. I havent seen any mention of that for awhile. Are the current cases people who have or havent had it before?

What does close contact mean?
Examples of close contact include:

- close face to face contact (under 1 metre) for any length of time – including talking to them or coughing on them
- being within 1 to 2 metres of each other for more than 15 minutes – including travelling in a small vehicle
-spending lots of time in your home, such as cleaning it.

Worth noting that not all close contacts will need to self isolate.

Lad in my son's (15yo) football team had positive LFT on Monday last week, followed by positive PCR confirmation test (on Wed). They had played a match the previous day and had trained 4 days previous. Physical contact multiple times throughout, no masks. Outdoors though.

None of the team were given permission to be off school to self isolate. Told no need unless T&T tell you too, which they didn't. We understand on the basis that they were outdoors.

A school football team? Surely T&T irrelevant in that case, as schools have to do their own contact tracing!

The rules around football teams are pretty crap tbh.

@MRex

Sensible heads, my cleaner is still "waiting to see" to be vaccinated and has a secondary pupil son... She wears a mask and mostly keeps distance in other rooms, but occasionally pass in corridors. How likely are we to be asked to isolate if she gets covid?

Have an almost identical situation But -plot twist- she texted today to say she’s tested positive and feeling poorly 😢. Luckily it was more than a week since she was last here so I don’t think we are at risk. At least when she is better she is unlikely to have it again anytime soon.

How I wish I had the cleaner problem! I loathe cleaning. Had a cleaner for 2 years - best spent money ever.

I might be unpopular, but here it goes. Above a certain level of informed-ness I just wouldn't give a crap of what T&T or gov says.*
I had to fly about 2 weeks ago. I ordered my 2 PCR test, sent them back on day 2 and 8. Now I'm on day 15 and the day 8 results are still not in. And they kept calling me every day twice to ask over the phone if I'm quarantining at the address I gave. What's the point? Why is it a given that everyone will be truthful? In situation like these I would start with the worst assumption and would try to design a system that is hard to manipulate. The system here is shockingly lax and stupid.

*to clarify> Not because "I know better", but because they don't know even the fundamentals. See Portugal. OK to go for a fucking football match, but all of a sudden it's amber. Nothing in the data (their data) suggests them to be amber. Probs they are because of political or other obscure/hidden (and stupid) reason. This gov has made/is making mistakes at almost every step, so if I think I have a higher understanding and carefully take into consideration my fellow human beings then I value my judgement over theirs any day.
**Also, it's not better in other european countries either. They have equally idiotic set of rules, where some are so blatantly stupid that it hurts.