What is going on in Bolton?

[Cloudsurfing]

Over 300/100,000 rate now, and still rising. This surely can't just be the Indian variant can it? Nowhere else seems to be this high and 86 counties now have the variant. Will the government do a local lockdown? surely they can't let people meet inside when cases are so high there?

People who genuinely choose not to take up the offer of a vaccine have every right to do so, and should not be bullied or coerced in to undergoing a medical procedure they do not want.

People CAN and should make their decision.

However most decisions do come with consequences. At present the consequence may just be to themselves if they fall ill with the virus. Sadly the consequence may be passing it on to someone more vulnerable who genuinely can't be vaccinated.

In time the consequence might be they can't visit various places around the world. Who knows what decision other countries might make,

It's just like before Christmas when there was an explosion of cases in London and the government were blaming the schools. The schools were scratching their heads as they were following all the rules. Turned out it was a more contagious variant.

I think it's because of the economy and jobs personally. It came out last week that wealthy areas such as the borough of Richmond upon Thames, more than 70% of all staff said they worked from home during the pandemic. Northern towns such as Burnley and Middlesbrough, fewer than 14% of employees said they had ever worked from home.

The government IS playing a dangerous game of blaming ethnic minority groups for not taking up the vaccine enough, this is an extremely divisive situation. And until I actually see proof of that, I will not form an opinion. The government has not backed up their affirmation with any data or facts.

@MistressoftheDarkSide

Is this MP lying or mistaken?

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/18/vaccine-hesitancy-narrative-fuelling-divisions-in-bolton-says-mp

"Yasmin Qureshi, the Labour MP for Bolton South East, said ministers were peddling a “dangerous” narrative and that she had already received emails from people blaming residents for travelling overseas – and potentially bringing back Covid– “when we British people stayed at home”.

She added: “Already you can see an element of racism coming through. [The government narrative] is really unhelpful. It wasn’t vaccine hesitancy; it’s that it wasn’t rolled out well enough and this Conservative government is blaming everyone but themselves and it causes tension”.

Dr Zubaida Haque, a member of Independent Sage and former interim director Runnymede Trust, said it was “misleading and unethical of the health secretary, Matt Hancock to suggest that vaccine hesitancy is driving the rapid spread of the B1617.2, so-called Indian variant given his conclusions are based on a sample of 18 hospitalisations in Bolton where six out of 18 people did take the vaccine”.

Case rates in Bolton are higher among those aged under 40, who were not eligible to receive their first dose of a vaccine until 12 May. Guardian analysis found that there were 380 cases per 100,000 among under 40s in the previous week, compared with 163 among those aged 40 and over. Both rates are more than 10 times higher than in England as a whole, but the gap between the two age groups is broadly similar to the national picture."

Yes, the narrative is totally hate-driven and racist.

@hahaboink There are less than 1000 people in hospital with Covid right now. On average that is less than one person per hospital. I honestly don’t think there is any reason to panic. No vaccine is 100% effective but it’s doing a great job of reducing numbers of people hospitalised. Even in Bolton there are only 19 people in hospital because of it.

People said the same last Summer. That's the trouble with exponential growth. By the time you realise what's happening, it's too late to control.

Look at that Isle of Man ferry worker back in February. One single person took covid onto the IOM. 2 new cases one day led to 108 new cases just a week later and several hundred infected over a month.

What's happening in Bolton?

Well, it goes like this:

• people and the government were in denial about the possibility of a pandemic - it's been known for years

• people and the government were in denial about the possibility of a pandemic second wave - the possibility of that has been known for years

• people and the government are in denial about the possibility of a pandemic third and subsequent waves - the possibility of those have been known for years......

What's happening in Bolton is simply the start of the third wave.

people are people. Not everyone is selfless and responsible or ever going to be

Exactly this. It's interesting that even the local MP has pointed to local attitudes rather than instantly blaming everyone else, but it won't have escaped anyone's notice that it's almost always the same areas where the "surges" start

In the end it may well come down to enforcement; either they're prepared to do it or not, and if they're not then history will go right on repeating itself

TV news showing long queues at Bolton vaccination centres.
90% of them were white.,

@j712adrian

What's happening in Bolton?

Well, it goes like this:

• people and the government were in denial about the possibility of a pandemic - it's been known for years

• people and the government were in denial about the possibility of a pandemic second wave - the possibility of that has been known for years

• people and the government are in denial about the possibility of a pandemic third and subsequent waves - the possibility of those have been known for years......

What's happening in Bolton is simply the start of the third wave.

THIS

You absolutely have the choice to not be vaccinated but it may mean you're then excluded from some areas of life

Once again I agree; however this could lead to people who are already marginalised enough being marginalised still further - and that won't be popular

Neither, apparently, is the door to door follow up that's being done in some areas; one of our local councillors is pushing for this to end because he feels it's "racist targeting"
Trouble is, solutions tend to focus on the longer term and Covid's here now, which is why it's perhaps understandable - if regrettable - that folk are starting to take a dim view of those who simply won't comply

@TrickyD

TV news showing long queues at Bolton vaccination centres. 90% of them were white.,

As is over 80% of the local population, so not terribly surprising (I assume your 90% is a quick estimate).

I suspect (happy to be proven wrong) that Bolton has a very high ethnic population (17% vs. 11% England/Wales) and statistically uptake of vaccines was orders of magnitude lower in some ethnic groups (one paper from March indicated it was 90% among white communities). So it's entirely logical that if vaccine rates in Bolton are a small fraction of the UK average, that the new variant would really spread rapidly there AND result in higher hospitalisations.

The interesting thing about Bolton is that vaccine take up is actually ABOVE average.

However that doesn't mean its equally distributed amongst wards in the town.

Its not something thats particularly good to hear though.

It's just been Ramadan, which is traditionally a time where families come together to break their fast, pray etc. I heavily suspect that like many of us at Christmas, they have ignored the guidelines and continued to observe the rituals as close to normal. It is common during this time to invite different family members, neighbours and friends on different nights, increasing the risk of spread. Along with the Indian variant being more virulent and affecting children/ teens more so that other variants it has spread quickly in schools who have them taken it home to their families. I live in an adjacent county and it's easy to see how it has got a strong hold. I'm not blaming anyone but the government.

I’ve got a feeling the vaccine refusal narrative is just to distract from the real issue of the government not closing the border soon enough.

Me too. Sadly, anything that comes from the BBC these days, I view through the lens of government propoganda. It saddens me, but I find their reporting to be pretty untrustworthy now.

@TrickyD not from my DH experience who was actually vaccinating over the weekend and yesterday. Don't believe what you (want to) see in the media. Not 90% white at all.

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/infection-rates-bolton-coronavirus-hotspot-20625924

www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/19311200.covid-19-infection-rates-every-area-bolton/

Still starting from a very low base, many are the 'Indian' variant, but not all.

What isn't 'out there' yet is who... sex, age, ethnicity of those infected and thos ewho have been hospitalised - those numbers remain low thought hey have now had one death

www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/19309873.covid-bolton-vaccine-surge-indian-variant-remains-concern/

@Nohomemadecandles

I don't think it's refusal so much as lack of access /information. I say this as someone whose husband has been vaccinating in Bolton this week.

People are keen & taking it now they have a way to get it without apps or travelling out of area.

Please don't fan any more racism or mockery on it.

I'd agree with the above. There's been a lot of confusion in my own locale because people are being asked to travel to a London hospital which is an expensive train journey away or would involve the eyewatering expense of a congestion charge plus parking costs (and disruptive because of care arrangements involved or the necessary 4-5hr time commitment if it all goes perfectly via public transport) or to a tiny pharmacy that is difficult to access when everybody knows that we have a hyperlocal vaccination centre.

It would be helpful if people had been able to select their preferred vaccination centres and work out the scheduling from there. I suspect that similar considerations affect places like Bolton.

I’m in Bolton and everyone I know has had the vaccine. I am unaware of any covid deniers. What is worrying is I had my first dose of Pfizer in feb and I am now 11 weeks and 5 days on from first dose. I chased the GP last week and was told it maybe up to 14 weeks until I was texted for second dose. Only after kicking up a fuss have i been offered it - tomorrow at 11 weeks 6 days from dose one. They are doing a good job with rolling our dose one but not so great at following up. Goodness knows how many are in my position and haven’t chased it. All the pop up vax centres are clearly for first dose only.

[quote Nohomemadecandles]@TrickyD not from my DH experience who was actually vaccinating over the weekend and yesterday. Don't believe what you (want to) see in the media. Not 90% white at all.[/quote]
My cousin said the same... she is white and was queueing for her jab. She was surprised as the news coverage was quite different from the reality she was stood standing in!

I think people aren't seeing that it is spreading in schools, with the highest affected age group being 10- 19. DPs school in Bolton now has at least half of each year group isolating due to multiple cases in each year group; just like Christmas. I'm in Manchester and whilst we have a few groups isolating due to positive cases we aren't having the daily track and trace due to yet another case. The variant arrived due to lots of travel from Asia and now it is spreading in all parts of the community through schools. I know the SLT are worried about the impact of Eid though (exactly like Christmas), especially as they now have families who have tested positive since.

It seriously has nothing to do with vaccine refusal.

It's quite possible that thousands of "seed" cases were brought into the UK. This led to the virus spreading initially among the younger groups (who aren't eligible for vaccination) - but of course, they take the virus home into multi-generational homes, and pass it on to the older generations. It's EXACTLY what happened last Autumn.

Vaccines will help - more total # infections will be required to reach the same level of hospital admissions/deaths as in previous waves. But what now is going to stop it getting to this level? The growth rate is phenomenal.

From an individual perspective, if you're vaccinated (i.e. 3wks after 1st jab), your risk from this variant is almost certainly not much higher than from regular covid. But nationally, during a huge wave, that "not much" translates into a significant number of deaths.

I give them 2 weeks to reverse the roadmap.

It seriously has nothing to do with vaccine refusal

Factually it has.

The casual racism over what's happening in Bolton is pernicious.

Of course it is. It's been the same throughout the pandemic. Similar situation when people point to the problems in Leicester. People use dog whistles to talk about the reasons (my favourite is "multi generational living") but it comes down to the same thing. It's all the fault of those black and brown people who never stick to the rules and refuse to get the vaccine, when actually it is so much more complex than that.

WHY are PEOPLE not expected to take responsibility for unnecessary travel?

Where I am, they are asking thousands of people to travel out of their LA area to go to another to get the vaccine. This was happening when numbers were high in one area and low in the other, and when there was a ban on travelling between the two. Made no sense.

The former Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey, who was the face of Universal Credit, appeared to blame low-income families' wanting 'new phones' for poverty

I made this point back when they were blaming families for not being able to feed their children during the school holidays. So many people making the point that families had smart phones and tablets but couldn't feed their kids. Of course, to access the term time vouchers, a computer and internet was required. We've been told how responsible we must be and download track and trace apps (which also don't work on older phones) Kids were learning online and needed access to tech, but damn those parents for prioritising phones.

@MintyMabel

The casual racism over what's happening in Bolton is pernicious.

Of course it is. It's been the same throughout the pandemic. Similar situation when people point to the problems in Leicester. People use dog whistles to talk about the reasons (my favourite is "multi generational living") but it comes down to the same thing. It's all the fault of those black and brown people who never stick to the rules and refuse to get the vaccine, when actually it is so much more complex than that.

WHY are PEOPLE not expected to take responsibility for unnecessary travel?

Where I am, they are asking thousands of people to travel out of their LA area to go to another to get the vaccine. This was happening when numbers were high in one area and low in the other, and when there was a ban on travelling between the two. Made no sense.

The former Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey, who was the face of Universal Credit, appeared to blame low-income families' wanting 'new phones' for poverty

I made this point back when they were blaming families for not being able to feed their children during the school holidays. So many people making the point that families had smart phones and tablets but couldn't feed their kids. Of course, to access the term time vouchers, a computer and internet was required. We've been told how responsible we must be and download track and trace apps (which also don't work on older phones) Kids were learning online and needed access to tech, but damn those parents for prioritising phones.

The casual racism over what's happening in Bolton is pernicious.

Couldn't agree more - it's Brexititis.

"Let's pretend that ALL the problems are the fault of funny talking/looking foreigners. "

It's such a simplistic message and easily finds home among those with existing racist leanings.

@Jemimapuddleduk

If it's any consolation, I am over 65 and didn't get my second Pfizer until 11weeks and 5 days. I think Pfizer is far more difficult because of the storage restrictions and they have to wait for the deliveries in and then contact everyone.
So it might not be just because of first dosing Bolton.