Map- Is the Delta variant in your area? [edited at OP's request in-like with WHO guidelines]

[PrincessNutNuts]

Well this is fun:

You can click on an area - such as say Bolton - and you can watch B1617.2 arriving in April then spreading out to the surrounding areas.

(It's nothing, nothing, nothing, then it suddenly bursts into colour.

And/or look at your own area and see if it's reached you yet.

covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?latitude=53.762878&longitude=-2.675077&zoom=6.82&area=E08000033&lineage=B.1.617.2&view=map&colorBy=p&date=2021-03-06

@uncomfortablydumb53

Just tried for surrounding areas and mine.. Wiltshire and get 0.00 on each Can you check for me please? I'm not great with touchscreen things

It's in Wiltshire.

3.5 tests they sequenced were found to be from the Indian variant. (I've no idea how they get a half)

This was 46.75 of the tests they sequenced.

So low numbers but high (ish) proportion of the positive tests they sequenced.

They only sequence a selection which I've always assumed was random (plus maybe the hospital cases) but I don't know.

So much scaremongering. Cases are really low at the moment and this is the time we should be enjoying life and doing normal things while we can. Bromley is highlighted in the Daily Mail today as one of the areas with a high level of the Indian variant. There are 26 cases of covid, including 14 of the Indian variant. In a borough of around 300,000 people! It's important to look at the number of cases as well as percentages.

What would be interesting to see isthe proportion of each type in the vaccinated and non vaccinated.

We are highlighted as a hotspot in the mail today and only have 22 cases

I have read the R rate of the Indian variant is 6. This means someone infected with it will on average pass it onto 6 other people.
If true you can see how quickly the numbers could explode.
So 22 cases this week
132 next week
792 week three
4752 week four
28,512 week five.

Plymouth is showing on the map as 0.5% Indian variant but the local news are reporting this as incorrect, no recorded cases in Plymouth. A postcode error apparently and the map hasn't been updated since yesterday. So do treat with caution, other areas could also be incorrect

@beebopalola

We are highlighted as a hotspot in the mail today and only have 22 cases

So did Bolton a month ago.

We know how this goes, right?

You have none, then a few, then a few more, and while the numbers are small you can kid yourself everything's ok, but if it keeps ticking up, sooner or later the numbers stop being small.

@castemary

I have read the R rate of the Indian variant is 6. This means someone infected with it will on average pass it onto 6 other people. If true you can see how quickly the numbers could explode. So 22 cases this week 132 next week 792 week three 4752 week four 28,512 week five.

Surely that would change as a result of many people being vaccinated though. As it seems to reduce it being passed on.

So many uncertainties.

@castemary

I have read the R rate of the Indian variant is 6. This means someone infected with it will on average pass it onto 6 other people. If true you can see how quickly the numbers could explode. So 22 cases this week 132 next week 792 week three 4752 week four 28,512 week five.

6 is a lot when we know we need to keep it under 1.

Well I know of at least one case in a local authority where the Sanger map states 0%...

So what does that mean? I guess that the Indian variant is more widespread than even that map demonstrates.

Or rather that the map only goes up to 8 May and this case (and many others probably) were identified at the end of last week/weekend.

So yes, it is already more widespread than the data shows.

@messeduppriorities

Well I know of at least one case in a local authority where the Sanger map states 0%...

So what does that mean? I guess that the Indian variant is more widespread than even that map demonstrates.

Yeah, that's probably it. Information lag. I'm not sure when the next Sanger update is.

The Prime Minister seemed to indicate we'd know more in a few days, but I expect his information sources are more up to the minute than ours.

None in my London borough.... yet

I used a different checker too (won't post it as it was on the DM website) but it was also zero cases on that checker.

Apparently Sanger release data every fortnight. I wonder if the govt gets it more frequently?

@PrincessNutNuts
Thank you, that's really interesting. Cases here are low... 54 in last 7 days but % of those are the B117.2

And that's why people need to get vaccinated. The number of cases is irrelevant so long as the number of hospitalisations stay low, as they are currently. Let's hope people make sensible choices as far as the vaccine is concerned.

@siestalady

And that's why people need to get vaccinated. The number of cases is irrelevant so long as the number of hospitalisations stay low, as they are currently. Let's hope people make sensible choices as far as the vaccine is concerned.

Hospital admissions are still expected to rise as cases rise.

Because we have a new variant increasing hospital admissions at the same time as vaccines reducing hospital admissions, I don't think anyone knows at what ratio of hospitalisations to cases it's going to balance out at.

The modelling projects much higher covid hospital admissions than we've ever seen if we just go back to normal now.

Anything that reduces cases, reduces hospital admissions.

Anything that increases cases increases hospital admissions.

Better stay locked down for infinity then eh?

@siestalady

Better stay locked down for infinity then eh?

We wouldn't need to if our border controls, and test trace and isolate system worked.

But they don't.

So yeah, expect our government to lock us down again after they screwed this up, then were told by SAGE they were still potentially screwing things up, but didn't want to be unpopular so carried on with the open up.

Lockdown is the governments policy. Not anyone else's.

People saying we better stay locked down forever are behaving like toddlers having a tantrum.
Nothing lasts forever. Is bubonic plague still causing people to hide in their houses as it did? No the main wave disappeared after two years. And WHO said at the beginning that it would take two years to get covid under control.
Pandemics do not quickly disappear, but neither are they with us forever.

Thank you, that's "fun". I'm in Trafford which isn't far from Bolton. Give it time...

Has any pandemic in past been managed like this -- where for months most shops had to close, and we weren't allowed to socialise indoors with people who were asymptomatic?

Where schools closed for months... Where wedding & funeral numbers were limited. Where borders closed, uninfected citizens locked out of own country, people's movements were constantly tracked. Where vaccination status was seriously talked about like permission slips to mix with perfectly healthy people?

Lots & Lots of new precedents are being established & there's no clear set of reasons or evidence criteria when the new rules might be lifted.

Right now IS different from how any pandemic has been handled -- ever in history. New (stricter) thresholds for acceptable risk have been established. Will they revert in future... or is the new normal much more risk adverse.

@llkjj There have been local lockdowns before with shops closed and schools closed. But not national lockdowns. But that is because with pandemics in the past most people lived and worked very locally, so the spread of infectious diseases took months. It would be like having a national lockdown when coronavirus had only reached Watford Gap and would take two more months to get to Scotland.
The exception was the Spanish flu. But that was because of service people returning home from war. They simply could not stop the massive movement of people and because most countries covered up what was happening, most people had no idea what was happening until it was too late and a local lockdown was imposed.

2,967 cases with the Indian variant have so far been identified

Monday's figure was 2,323, so up 28% in a couple of days. If that continued that would indicate doubling about twice a week.

Sewage analysis indicates surge vaccines and surge testing are now required in Bedford, Burnley, Hounslow, Kirklees, Leicester and North Tyneside as well as Glasgow and Moray.