Indian variant - why the panic?

[Doireallyneedaname]

Multiple news stories over the last 24 hours stating that the vaccines are effective against it; as well as lab studies last week showing the same, yet the panic continues. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57134181

The Changi airport cluster in Singapore worries. Nobody critically ill yet but the Indian variant seems to be able to transmit despite two doses of mRNA vaccines:

Singapore health officials said that of 28 airport workers who became infected, 19 were fully vaccinated with either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, the only two approved for use in Singapore.

“Unfortunately, this mutant virus, very virulent, broke through the layers of defense,” Transport Minister Ong Ye Kung told a virtual news conference on Friday.

www.nytimes.com/2021/05/14/world/asia/singapore-covid-restrictions.html

@KurtWilde that is really interesting -many people in the factory nearby (& living in the town) are from Eastern Europe
They can get tested as there is a local walk in & the local school has had a massive popup testing

I'm not sure that there is much point in holding back on restrictions really. You can't stop people mixing indoors and children are mixing in schools. That's probably where most of the transmission is happening. Closing down restaurants, pubs, museums etc hurts the economy and probably doesn't make much difference.

@Leonardsgirl

I don't think we should have more restrictions now, but it would be great if we could get some nice weather which encourages people outdoors as much as possible.

Yes. I think good weather could make a lot of difference.

[quote mumwon]@KurtWilde that is really interesting -many people in the factory nearby (& living in the town) are from Eastern Europe
They can get tested as there is a local walk in & the local school has had a massive popup testing[/quote]
Testing is door to door here, so it's not the testing that's the problem it's booking for the vaccine that seems to be the problem.

@AlecTrevelyan006

I remember the good old days when it was all about getting the most vulnerable vaccinated.

Now, everyone has to be vaccinated. At least twice. Preferably three times, while wearing full PPE gear and staying at home alone until 2024.

Do you have any idea what you sound like to other people when you post this sort of tosh?

There are around 25 million British citizens aged 50+

Assuming a vaccine uptake of 95% that leaves around 1,250,000 people unprotected. If vaccines are only 95% effective that leaves another 1,200,000 people unprotected - so around 2,500,000 potentially vulnerable people.

Once restrictions are lifted the likelihood is that most of those people could catch Covid if the new variant spreads quickly among the younger unvaccinated population.

That would see the hospital system overwhelmed again and could potentially mean another 25000 deaths.

And that assumes that the vaccines actually do actually work as well against this variant.

[quote funkythighcollector]I saw that Singapore has closed all schools because they think the variant affects children more. So some countries are changing restrictions because of it. www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3133695/coronavirus-singapore-close-schools-wednesday-amid[/quote]
OK fuck!

I pray that it doesn't come here and affect kids. They have been messed around so much.

There will be zero public will to lock down for the sake of people who won’t have a vaccination.

So that will be a tricky one to manage.

[quote mumwon]@Leonardsgirl I agree with you about vaccines! But I am searching to think what kind of reason a qualified nurse looking after cancer patients would do this -I would have thought they would understand the whole principle of immunity & risks of passing to their vulnerable patients - the only thought was were they nursing assistants who really didn't understand? God help us if they were qualified & my feeling is regardless of contracting covid all staff -particularly those face to face with most vulnerable should absolutely be required to have the vaccine or not work on that ward[/quote]
The "nurses" who give my OH his regular infusions at our Cancer day treatment centre don't understand. Throughout the pandemic, OH has had to "remind" them to change their gloves after moving from another patient to him and for them to wipe down the finger oxymeter and blood pressure cuffs. If he didn't "remind" them, they'd happily wonder from other patients to him without taking the simplest of precautions. They don't even wipe down the chairs/chair arms between patients. That's a room full of vulnerable cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy!

@TheKeatingFive

There will be zero public will to lock down for the sake of people who won’t have a vaccination.

So that will be a tricky one to manage.

Given that the government is modelling 60% and 70% of hospitalisations and deaths respectively to be in those who have had two vaccinations - it's a moot point.

Given that the government is modelling 60% and 70% of hospitalisations and deaths respectively to be in those who have had two vaccinations - it's a moot point

Presumably they model lots of things. The chances of it coming to pass don’t seem to be high.

@user1471518104

Our local data shows our hospital cases going up

We aren't panicking. Yet. The caution is to ensure we don't get to that point.

As several people have said, we aren't 100% vaccinated and the vaccines are not 100% effective. That leaves still a lot of people who could get seriously ill.

@user1497207191 so I presume they don't know how the common cold spreads as well? As they should be doing that as a matter of routine.

The "nurses" who give my OH his regular infusions at our Cancer day treatment centre don't understand. Throughout the pandemic, OH has had to "remind" them to change their gloves after moving from another patient to him and for them to wipe down the finger oxymeter and blood pressure cuffs. If he didn't "remind" them, they'd happily wonder from other patients to him without taking the simplest of precautions. They don't even wipe down the chairs/chair arms between patients. That's a room full of vulnerable cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy!

That's scary. They will be following policy and I would complain to the hospital.

@oystercatcher44

There are around 25 million British citizens aged 50+

Assuming a vaccine uptake of 95% that leaves around 1,250,000 people unprotected. If vaccines are only 95% effective that leaves another 1,200,000 people unprotected - so around 2,500,000 potentially vulnerable people.

Once restrictions are lifted the likelihood is that most of those people could catch Covid if the new variant spreads quickly among the younger unvaccinated population.

That would see the hospital system overwhelmed again and could potentially mean another 25000 deaths.

And that assumes that the vaccines actually do actually work as well against this variant.

Yes but hopefully those 2.5m vulnerable people a.) will not all need to go into hospital, and b.) will not all be hospitalised at the same time.

I mean they were not following policy!

They need to keep up the fear and the pressure so that those who aren't vaccinated don't delay when it comes to their turn. If it's not so serious they will likely procrastinate, or not bother at all.

@TheKeatingFive

Given that the government is modelling 60% and 70% of hospitalisations and deaths respectively to be in those who have had two vaccinations - it's a moot point

Presumably they model lots of things. The chances of it coming to pass don’t seem to be high.

You've got to ask yourself why they're modelling any such thing.

It may be based on hospital data of Covid admissions since the vaccination roll out. They won't just pluck it out of the air.

You've got to ask yourself why they're modelling any such thing.

They model all kinds of scenarios from the very best to the very worst. I’d be more concerned if they didn’t bother. Doesn’t mean it’s likely to happen.

If vaccines are only 95% effective that leaves another 1,200,000 people unprotected - so around 2,500,000 potentially vulnerable people.

That's not how it works. The % efficacy rates don't mean that X number has 100% protection and Y number has zero. It means that on average, the vaccines provide the estimated level of protection. So it does not mean about 5% of the over 50s will have no protection against the virus.

Well, Bolton hospital trust have currently got 5 fully vaccinated people hospitalised with the Indian variant. So I'm not convinced that the vaccines are AS effective against it (we've not had a single fully vaccinated covid patient with other strains), but obviously it's a really small anecdotal subset!

I really really hope its a panic over nothing. I'd like to get back to normal.

Well, Bolton hospital trust have currently got 5 fully vaccinated people hospitalised with the Indian variant.

Last I heard it was 1.

Yes one fully vaccinated, 5 with one vaccination.