Indian variant - why the panic?

[Doireallyneedaname]

Multiple news stories over the last 24 hours stating that the vaccines are effective against it; as well as lab studies last week showing the same, yet the panic continues. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57134181

India now have a vaccine export ban. Its thought if they maintain the ban they will vaccinate their population by November.

The problem is many the countries they export to including poorer countries, may now struggle to vaccinate their populations

I should mention that the local school with an outbreak is a primary school & 3 years have been affected so far
The factory affected nearby is a major employer in our town - I suspect possibly (almost certainly) that there is a direct connection between the 2 outbreaks -
We live in a small market town about 20 miles from a major urban area

@AbsolutelyPatsy

but where are the serum institute in pune sending their vaccines?

Mostly in India, though some are being exported.

India has a population of nearly 1.4 billion and will soon be the most populous country in the world. Where are all the spare vaccines to vaccinate that population going to come from?

Mumwon I have no idea what type of nurses they were. I'm in my 50s and I have no medical background but I still believe I understand the benefits of being vaccinated, so I'm not sure their medical knowledge, or lack of it, makes a difference. They were very anti vaccine.

If the so called ‘Indian’ variant is so much more transmissible how come cases in India, in this wave at least, are already falling? There are still over 1.3 billion people left to infect even allowing for significant under counting. I wonder it there are other explanations for these surges in the UK as well. For example, different populations being susceptible to different strains of the virus or different mutations losing their potency after a while as they mutate further. Everyone just seems to accept that it is more transmissible, I think it suits the government’s agenda to keep people scared a bit longer as they are worried about lifting restrictions.

@IcedPurple
Interesting that we interpret things differently.
He explains what he means by baseline controls which is keeping a few of the restrictions and I interpret him as saying these will be needed, not just might be.

AFAIK there are no plans to vaccinate teenagers which is one of the major mitigations he proposes. Without this I interpret that, according to his models, the other possible measures, including reintroducing other restrictions are most likely going to be needed in order to avoid to big a wave of infections.

It is very unfortunately to be having whole year groups sent home from school the same week that people can start drinking inside and going to the cinema.

Government priorities are totally messed up.

Older teenagers with exams are facing weeks of home learning, and depending on how this pans out their second round of life-changing exams being cancelled.

So weeks of home learning required to facilitate the full reopening of pubs, restaurants, holidays abroad etc.

Either the Indian variant is dangerous (so we close year groups at schools for weeks) or it is not (so can gather indoors for totally non-essential recreational purposes and go on our hols to Portugal).

Which is it? Because currently schools and children/young people are at the bottom of the pile AGAIN.

Thanks BJ government.

@Leonardsgirl

Stressmagnet yes, they had both had covid. They said it's just a mild flu and they don't know why anyone is panicking. They were very anti vaccine, but I didn't want to get into a debate with them about it.

"They said it's just a mild 'flu and they don't know why anyone is panicking." So their ignorance isn't just confined to be anti-vaccine. Lovely.

From what I understand and at the risk of sounding incredibly racist.

Yes covid is now ripe in populations that historically have poor trust in government and healthcare. Therefore poor uptake in vaccines.

They are often populations in professions/that can work from home or can less afford to lockdown.

If you enact a lockdown that happens to impact more heavily on one ethnicity that the rest of the white population you are setting up a race relations powder keg.

So no I dont believe local lockdowns will work. I also believe the government will twiddle their thumbs because whatever they do, they will not look good.

So they will do nothing and gamble that what they are saying about the vaccine working on the Indian variant is right.

I work with an Indian lady, she said a lot people in her Indian village have the Indian variant. It goes straight to the lungs with no symptom and then, finally you get a fever by then your lungs are quite damaged and you've got a strong case of pneumonia, which means you need medical assistance to get better or you will die. It's super infectious.

Also affects children more.

@Needanewhat

There is a significant problem with particular ethnic minorities refusing the vaccine. There is a lot of misinformation circling on private WhatsApp groups.

I know people whose relatives died from covid who still will not have the vaccine because of this (my mother is from one of the cultures in question).

This is the issue in my area. We also have a large Eastern European community who simply don't have the correct paperwork required in order to receive the jab. They're not being helped at all by the local council. Until the council and the religious leaders start pulling together I do think the virus will spike where I live.

Can't not can!

@Hirewiredays

I work with an Indian lady, she said a lot people in her Indian village have the Indian variant. It goes straight to the lungs with no symptom and then, finally you get a fever by then your lungs are quite damaged and you've got a strong case of pneumonia, which means you need medical assistance to get better or you will die. It's super infectious.

How does she know they've all got the 'Indian variant' as opposed to the Kent variant for example? Is everyone in her 'Indian village' being sequenced?

And from what I've read, there's no evidence that the 'Indian variant' is more virulent, though it is more transmissable.

@SarahMused

If the so called ‘Indian’ variant is so much more transmissible how come cases in India, in this wave at least, are already falling? There are still over 1.3 billion people left to infect even allowing for significant under counting. I wonder it there are other explanations for these surges in the UK as well. For example, different populations being susceptible to different strains of the virus or different mutations losing their potency after a while as they mutate further. Everyone just seems to accept that it is more transmissible, I think it suits the government’s agenda to keep people scared a bit longer as they are worried about lifting restrictions.

Perhaps cases are falling in India because people are scared and are being as careful as they can not to catch COVID-19. They weren't so bothered a few months ago . In the UK , the fact that cases have suddenly surged in some areas and it looks similar to what happened in Kent a few months ago suggests it may well be a more infectious variant.

@messeduppriorities

It is very unfortunately to be having whole year groups sent home from school the same week that people can start drinking inside and going to the cinema.

Government priorities are totally messed up.

Older teenagers with exams are facing weeks of home learning, and depending on how this pans out their second round of life-changing exams being cancelled.

So weeks of home learning required to facilitate the full reopening of pubs, restaurants, holidays abroad etc.

Either the Indian variant is dangerous (so we close year groups at schools for weeks) or it is not (so can gather indoors for totally non-essential recreational purposes and go on our hols to Portugal).

Which is it? Because currently schools and children/young people are at the bottom of the pile AGAIN.

Thanks BJ government.

@messeduppriorities:

Government priorities are totally messed up." Indeed they are.

Sadly, so are many people's.

If you read right down to the bottom of the article you linked, the analysis by David Shukman answers your question:

"In any event, the hope is to vaccinate many more people as quickly as possible and in the meantime to highlight the risks."

Because it has taken hold in areas where a higher population than average have not taken up the offer of vaccination

This ^^

Also because some relish panicking and they shout louder than most

@Leonardsgirl I agree with you about vaccines! But I am searching to think what kind of reason a qualified nurse looking after cancer patients would do this -I would have thought they would understand the whole principle of immunity & risks of passing to their vulnerable patients - the only thought was were they nursing assistants who really didn't understand? God help us if they were qualified & my feeling is regardless of contracting covid all staff -particularly those face to face with most vulnerable should absolutely be required to have the vaccine or not work on that ward

The panic is simply in the minds of the media drumming up their headlines and news feeds for the day.
This variant responds to the vaccine, the quicker people have the vaccine the closer we will all get back to normal life.

At the moment less than 50% of our adult population have a both vaccine doses. This is where our current jeopardy lies I think. Even assuming that the vaccines are very effective against the Indian variant ( and personally, I think it might be too early to tell right now) we have to keep things suppressed until many more people have been vaccinated. Even if it is mainly under 50s who get ill, and fewer of these will end up hospitalised, a small proportion of these is still a big enough number to cause major problems for the NHS
In addition, allowing this highly infectious variant to spread through the younger unvaccinated population still gives a risk of a new even worse variant to develop.
The good news is that every week we can hold back the spread of this ( and other) variants, the more people get fully vaccinated.
That's why I think we need to be more cautious now and maybe hold back a bit on lifting restrictions. A few more weeks of some restrictions now could avoid another large wave and further lockdowns later.
I'm not enjoying restrictions. I just think a bit more caution now will avoid worse restrictions later.

Mumwon I agree. I was pretty shocked. They seemed like nice people but I found myself viewing them slightly differently when they announced they hadn't been vaccinated.....

@Hirewiredays

I work with an Indian lady, she said a lot people in her Indian village have the Indian variant. It goes straight to the lungs with no symptom and then, finally you get a fever by then your lungs are quite damaged and you've got a strong case of pneumonia, which means you need medical assistance to get better or you will die. It's super infectious.

That is actually common to all Covid variants.

And without testing she can't be sure what variant her village have.

Belladonna12 Given the conditions that the poor live in in India this seems very improbable. Social distancing or working from home is only possible for the middle and upper classes. They had to stop the earlier lockdowns because people were literally unable to buy food if they couldn’t work and many tried to migrate from the cities back to their families in more rural areas taking infections with them. If you live in a slum it is impossible to follow the hygiene practices recommended here.

I don't think we should have more restrictions now, but it would be great if we could get some nice weather which encourages people outdoors as much as possible.