Indian variant - why the panic?

[Doireallyneedaname]

Multiple news stories over the last 24 hours stating that the vaccines are effective against it; as well as lab studies last week showing the same, yet the panic continues. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57134181

I thought the average number of years lost from dying from covid in the UK was 11 years.
I was really worried about my dad before he was vaccinated. If he caught covid it would have killed him. He has a 10-year life expectancy, enjoys life, but is vulnerable.
In terms of the 100-year-old admitted to hospital, in the peak of deaths very elderly people were not admitted to hospital at all.

Easter island

The key phrase there is BOTH vaccinations
Not one.

The government have been bigging up one vaccine as immune and fine for so long.

Now, suddenly, those with one vaccination are dismissed.

Like oh they’ve been hospitalised but it’s because they ONLY had one vaccine. Like it’s their fault. Even though they CAN’T get the second vaccine yet.

Critically think about every statistic before you share it and make sure the government aren’t playing you.

Because here they’re blaming the blameless.

The gov clearly know one jab is ineffective against the variant.

That’s why they’re hugely speeding up second doses. Especially in areas with the variant.

The very elderly weren’t expected to live in the first wave because they were not treated and given DNR orders without family wishes. (Do not resuscitate).

Read the well researched book Failures of State by two respected journalists (there are some left)

I think that the one dose to more people was good enough for a while. The new variant seems to be what's made the second dose more of an imperative. It wasn't the government "bigging" it up. You just need to read scientific papers and data to see that.

Indian variant - why the panic?

Approx total detected cases in the country on dates given
April 27th 202
May 7th 520
May 13th 1313
May 20th 3424
May 26th 6959

We've seen this doubling before. We know where it goes.

This variant has some degree of variant escape which renders vaccines less effective, and one dose quite dramatically so.

And our government are still pretending that opening up in three or four doubling's time will be fiiiiine.

No we dont know where this goes though and that is the point. This is a very different scenario which positively or negatively is going to play out differently to last time.

Just like the second wave was different to the first. We aren't following the same path in either case.

And your table that you yourself put on indicates that 3.5% of cases go to hospital, of which 0.7% needed admission and 0.2% died those figures to me seem far more positive than before.

Cases are not going to be the deciding factor and nor should they. If as the figures in the table you posted are showing that people are getting it but not needing hospital care (and anything that flows from that) we have to take it as positive.

As time goes on more people get the second vaccination (we are now 36.4% of the adult population) the less chance we will see what we will again.

Unless of course that is what you want Princess?

Because the BBC filters down and distorts reality. It’s Boris Johnson’s mouthpiece. At the moment they want us reassured.

Cases increased by 50% yesterday (compared to previous Friday). Up to 75% of new cases are the Indian variant. Doctors from countries hit by the new variant say it’s affecting the young more but we seem to be waiting for evidence of that???!!!!!! Why learn from abroad??? 60% more transmissible. We were on the cusp before and now we are opening up with a more transmissible variant. Hospitalisation up 25% in the last week. What are we doing???!!!

Is the government trying for herd immunity with our children?

No mitigations despite increasing cases & more transmissible variant.

No data has been released for schools and the new variant despite calls from all the unions.

Something is definitely amiss.

@Quartz2208 cases are still relevant although I agree that factors this time are different. Essentially we are looking for where our tolerance levels lie with the addition of vaccinations and that will depend on changing data as time progresses. Case numbers will always equal a pre-cursor to hospital pressure with covid, the question we’re waiting for an answer on is by how much vaccinations will relieve this.

At the moment it’s looking likely that vaccines will perform as expected but we don’t know that with a high degree of certainty yet and we don’t know where the tipping point is for losing control. Until that information is available case numbers will remain our best indicator of how well we can control the pressure on hospitals.

We need to be deciding on cases!

It’s not right to be knowingly exposing everyone to an unknown quantity.

Precautionary principle?

Children and young people are affected more by this new strain.

In a couple of months everyone could have been offered two jabs. The impatience and lack of care for the children and unvaccinated population is staggering.

Wonder sun 60% more transmissible from where

@Cornettoninja you are right I find Princess desire to have us follow the same path frustrating that I push a point!

What I don’t understand is why some countries (Us/Germany) seem ok with it others like us and to a lesser extent Australia are finding it harder

Children and young people are affected more by this new strain.

Pretty sure this has been said with conviction for every new strain of note. It’s then never born out in the data.

Tbf I lean more towards PrincessNutNuts cautionary outlook and have to make a concerted effort to try and be rationally optimistic but she makes fair points and let’s face it, we’ve been in this situation more than once where the cautious are dismissed and we’re the ones ending up paying. I would rather an abundance of caution and trepidation later proved unfounded than the reverse.

I think the answer to how countries compare will be complicated and I’ll be interested in the final analysis when the dust settles.

@TheKeatingFive

Children and young people are affected more by this new strain.

Pretty sure this has been said with conviction for every new strain of note. It’s then never born out in the data.

But it will now because children and the young are the unvaccinated/last to be vaccinated. Covid will absolutely start affecting them disproportionally because that’s where it will be able to move.

I will bet my cat on the media not presenting this without sensationalising it when they should be informing people to look at rising cases in younger groups rationally.

Covid will absolutely start affecting them disproportionally because that’s where it will be able to move.

But not disproportionally compared to original strains, is my point.

I agree with you about the media handling.

I will bet my cat on the media not presenting this without sensationalising it when they should be informing people to look at rising cases in younger groups rationally

I'd say that's pretty well guaranteed
They'll probably get "the matron" back to insist her children's ward is absolutely full, then have to pull the articles again ... but not before the usual tsunami of posts treated her words as if they came frfom Moses

We don't, and can't possibly, know the effects of this new variant on children and young people.

The media have largely gone along with the downplaying. Quite the opposite of sensationalising.

All the way through they've heavily pushed the othering line - 'only elderly and vulnerable' (young vulnerable clearly aren't like other young people), they've under reported on Long Covid, and they frequently dutifully report government manipulation and lies as fact - with very little challenge.

A major thing is the manipulatuve reporting about vaccines and opening up. Repeatedly a media message of 'the vulnerable have all been offered a vaccine' or '70% of public now vaccinated' - failing to clarify and explain that:

a) Being offered and actually getting a booked slot availability are two different things. There's often a wait of several weeks (and it's another few weeks before any protection properly takes effect)

and (the key issue)

b) 70% of the public have only had their first dose - and partial vaccination is insufficient protection (one dose is only 33% effective).

@PrincessNutNuts

We don't, and can't possibly, know the effects of this new variant on children and young people.

Yes this.

Unless somebody has a crystal ball.

@Cornettoninja

Tbf I lean more towards PrincessNutNuts cautionary outlook and have to make a concerted effort to try and be rationally optimistic but she makes fair points and let’s face it, we’ve been in this situation more than once where the cautious are dismissed and we’re the ones ending up paying. I would rather an abundance of caution and trepidation later proved unfounded than the reverse.

I think the answer to how countries compare will be complicated and I’ll be interested in the final analysis when the dust settles.

I agree actually with the cautionary - I have said more than once on threads that June 21st is an arbitrary date and that an end of July one would be much better (in terms of vaccines and the economy actually once the holidays start. But that doesnt mean we should start going down a rabbit hole of taking it back to where it was because it isnt the same as before at all

And in terms of young people caution has to balanced with the knowledge that at the moment the mental health side of all of this is IMO causing the MOST damage to that generation

@PrincessNutNuts

We don't, and can't possibly, know the effects of this new variant on children and young people.

we do know the effect of all of this on their mental health though

Plus it is very unlikely with the mutations on the Indian variant it is going to be that different to the others so we do kind of know

@TheKeatingFive

Covid will absolutely start affecting them disproportionally because that’s where it will be able to move.

But not disproportionally compared to original strains, is my point.

I agree with you about the media handling.

I agree, it won’t be presented next to historical figures to illustrate the point that it hasn’t changed anything except our wider tolerance levels.

It's really positive news that the vaccines seem to be holding up so well against the Indian variant. Things are starting to look brighter for us all.

@PrincessNutNuts

We don't, and can't possibly, know the effects of this new variant on children and young people.

Although it's been circulating in India for some time?

I assume she meant long term effects.