Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Indian variant - why the panic?

592 replies

Doireallyneedaname · 17/05/2021 08:05

Multiple news stories over the last 24 hours stating that the vaccines are effective against it; as well as lab studies last week showing the same, yet the panic continues. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57134181

OP posts:
Thread gallery
6
unwuthering · 17/05/2021 12:43

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01274-7

Explains some concerns re the variant:

"On Monday [11/5/21], the World Health Organization (WHO) designated B.1.617 a ‘variant of concern’. Variants are classified in this way when there is evidence that they spread more rapidly, cause more severe disease or evade previously acquired immunity better than do circulating versions of the virus. On 7 May, the UK government declared the B.1.617.2 subtype a variant of concern in the United Kingdom. It revealed that recorded B.1.617.2 infections in the country had risen from 202 to 520 in a single week."

Doubling in a week is not good...

TatianaBis · 17/05/2021 12:47

@TheKeatingFive

You've got to ask yourself why they're modelling any such thing.

They model all kinds of scenarios from the very best to the very worst. I’d be more concerned if they didn’t bother. Doesn’t mean it’s likely to happen.

You seem to have missed the point about the type of data that is likely to be modelled on. There's different kinds of modelling.
QwertyGirly · 17/05/2021 12:48

Why is it that when people take sensible measures (such as increasing rate of vaccination) people accuse them of panicking?

OK, simple guide:

  • Taking sensible measures: not panicking
  • Wearing full hazmat suit at Tesco: panicking

I havent seen any evidence of panic.

picturesandpickles · 17/05/2021 12:51

@LidlMiddleLover

May not be a popular view but i think its crazy that everyone else may have to have their life wrecked to protect those in certain areas who have chosen not to be vaccinated
This is a foolish position.

Enjoy having all other health treatments cancelled again. Or do you plan to leave people to die on the street Hmm

Plus six were vaccinated.

Engage with the reality not the bullshit.

TheKeatingFive · 17/05/2021 12:51

You seem to have missed the point about the type of data that is likely to be modelled on.

How would you know what it’s ‘likely’ to be modelled on?

Good planning involves modelling lots of scenarios, some vanishingly unlikely.

Needanewhat · 17/05/2021 12:51

Why is it that when people take sensible measures (such as increasing rate of vaccination) people accuse them of panicking?

Tbh I think it's that people desperately want to believe the whole thing is over and done with and therefore are quick to sneer at those still suggesting precautions or even hinting that actually it may not be over and done with yet.

picturesandpickles · 17/05/2021 12:53

@khawk89

They need to keep up the fear and the pressure so that those who aren't vaccinated don't delay when it comes to their turn. If it's not so serious they will likely procrastinate, or not bother at all.
Yet more covid denial.

This risk has not been invented as a vaccine persuasion tool.

picturesandpickles · 17/05/2021 12:55

@TheKeatingFive

You seem to have missed the point about the type of data that is likely to be modelled on.

How would you know what it’s ‘likely’ to be modelled on?

Good planning involves modelling lots of scenarios, some vanishingly unlikely.

No, they don't model things that are 'vanishingly unlikely', they model a range of scenarios but all within the range of realistic possibilities.
bumbleymummy · 17/05/2021 12:55

@Odagled

As far as I can see, the “panic” is largely isolated to the media.
^This. I don’t know anyone in real life who is in the slightest bit concerned about it. Everyone is just getting on with their lives now that they’re finally allowed to do so.
TatianaBis · 17/05/2021 12:58

@TheKeatingFive

You seem to have missed the point about the type of data that is likely to be modelled on.

How would you know what it’s ‘likely’ to be modelled on?

Good planning involves modelling lots of scenarios, some vanishingly unlikely.

Because I'm aware of the kind of data available.

If you're modelling hospitalisations & deaths - existing figures are key.

PurpleDaisies · 17/05/2021 12:59

Nobody I know is panicking. Plenty of people are choosing to ignore the relaxation of the rules are and continuing only meeting outdoors, wearing masks in school etc.

TheKeatingFive · 17/05/2021 13:01

If you're modelling hospitalisations & deaths - existing figures are key.

Well quite. We have 1 or 2 (accounts differ) fully vaxxed people currently hospitalised at the current moment.

EducatingArti · 17/05/2021 13:02

@unwuthering

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01274-7

Explains some concerns re the variant:

"On Monday [11/5/21], the World Health Organization (WHO) designated B.1.617 a ‘variant of concern’. Variants are classified in this way when there is evidence that they spread more rapidly, cause more severe disease or evade previously acquired immunity better than do circulating versions of the virus. On 7 May, the UK government declared the B.1.617.2 subtype a variant of concern in the United Kingdom. It revealed that recorded B.1.617.2 infections in the country had risen from 202 to 520 in a single week."

Doubling in a week is not good...

And this is doubling in a week with pre 17 May restrictions.
SofiaMichelle · 17/05/2021 13:05

[quote LidlMiddleLover]@x2boys “ you mean like when the rest of the country locked down because the virus was rampant in London?
I'm not advocating for a lockdown ,but let's not pit areas against each other .”

No very different because people in London didn’t have the opportunity to have the vaccine then Now they have been offered and declined it in those areas wgere the Indian varient is now rampant Their choice but their consequences not for everyone else to have to lockdown to protect them[/quote]
Your argument makes no sense. Forget the vaccine. There was no need for the entire UK to go into the first lockdown when London did.

We had virtually zero cases in our area but we still had exactly the same lockdown conditions - when I say virtually zero, I mean that in our geographically very large rural main postcode area (35,000 residents!) we had between 5 and 20 cases per week over the 13 week period prior to July 4th when the first lockdown started to lift.

After that first national lockdown lifted and within 6 weeks we were back in almost total lockdown here due to a 'surge' in cases in a city 25 miles from us - we still had fewer than 30 cases per week or average - but we were left stuck indoors watching Londoners partying on the streets of Soho while their case rate was way in excess of ours.

It took intervention from councillors, and then MPs raising it in the Commons to get any movement for us.

And even then we were thrown back under the bus when some other Northern areas saw a surge later. Presumably because to the government the north is just some homogeneous inconsequential place that doesn't matter, so no point thinking about the details.

OnTheBrink1 · 17/05/2021 13:06

@Leonardsgirl

Belladonna I was really quite shocked. Because I don't know anyone who isn't having the vaccine as soon as it's offered I naively assumed most people were. It's made me realise that the message about exercising caution is an important one as you really don't know who you are sitting next to and what they have been doing.
Some people you know aren't having it. They just aren't telling you because of your shitty judgemental attitude
Leonardsgirl · 17/05/2021 13:10

Onthebrink. I am not judging them, I respect their right to make their decision and I don't think vaccines should be compulsory. I was shocked, as I naively assumed they would have had the vaccine. That's not the same thing.

picturesandpickles · 17/05/2021 13:12

@TheKeatingFive

If you're modelling hospitalisations & deaths - existing figures are key.

Well quite. We have 1 or 2 (accounts differ) fully vaxxed people currently hospitalised at the current moment.

And this will be built into the models.

We had one case of covid in the world once. It doesn't matter if cases are low now, it is the steepness of the line that matters.

The more data they get the more they will be able to plot the line.

TatianaBis · 17/05/2021 13:18

@TheKeatingFive

If you're modelling hospitalisations & deaths - existing figures are key.

Well quite. We have 1 or 2 (accounts differ) fully vaxxed people currently hospitalised at the current moment.

Actually we have figures from the beginning of the roll out.
khawk89 · 17/05/2021 13:19

I'm not denying covid for god sake 😂 What are you on?

Belladonna12 · 17/05/2021 13:22

Some people you know aren't having it. They just aren't telling you because of your shitty judgemental attitude

Yeah, how "shitty" to judge someone just because they are putting the lives of the people they're supposed to be looking after at greater risk than they need to be.Hmm

Belladonna12 · 17/05/2021 13:23

@Leonardsgirl

Onthebrink. I am not judging them, I respect their right to make their decision and I don't think vaccines should be compulsory. I was shocked, as I naively assumed they would have had the vaccine. That's not the same thing.
If they're looking after people with cancer I don't respect "their right" to make a decision to work and not be vaccinated at all. They should do people with cancer a favour and get another job because they're clearly in the wrong one.
picturesandpickles · 17/05/2021 13:25

@khawk89

I'm not denying covid for god sake 😂 What are you on?
You said 'they need to keep up the fear' which suggests it is a spin exercise
EducatingArti · 17/05/2021 13:28

@Firefliess writes really well about the Bolton hospital figures over on the stats thread.
"Just been reading that there are 5 people in hospital in Bolton with the Indian variant who have had one vaccine dose and one that has has both doses ( though they are apparently frail) . I'm not sure how this works out in terms of percentages of cases of the Indian variant but I'm guessing that it is quite small. Obviously early days yet for this kind of statistic though"

The article I saw said that, and also said that the "vast majority" had not been vaccinated, including 18 who were eligible for the vaccine but hadn't had it. Vaccine take up in Bolton is a bit lower than average, but if we assume 70% of eligible people have been vaccinated and the vaccines had no effect at all, we'd expect to see 70% of hospitalised cases (in eligible age groups) being vaccinated. But instead we see 6 out of 24 which is 25%, and only 1 out of 24 (5%) double dosed. Those numbers are too small to precisely calculate how well the vaccine works (and there are confounding factors such as Asian people being more likely to have traveled to India and also more likely to be unvaccinated), but I'd say the figures are broadly encouraging that the vaccines do work pretty well, and have probably saved around 36 people being hospitalised (if the vaccinated people had been admitted at the same rate as the unvaccinated), in addition to indirect benefits from slowing transmission.

WouldBeGood · 17/05/2021 13:30

Don’t get it @Doireallyneedaname.

Sick and fed up of yet another reason not to free us.

Belladonna12 · 17/05/2021 13:31

@SarahMused

Belladonna12 Given the conditions that the poor live in in India this seems very improbable. Social distancing or working from home is only possible for the middle and upper classes. They had to stop the earlier lockdowns because people were literally unable to buy food if they couldn’t work and many tried to migrate from the cities back to their families in more rural areas taking infections with them. If you live in a slum it is impossible to follow the hygiene practices recommended here.
I appreciate that not many people will be working from home and can't social distance as much as people in the UK. However we are talking about measured cases falling and as they are probably testing more in the middle or upper-class areas rather than the slums then the falling documented cases is perhaps less surprising.
Swipe left for the next trending thread